The latest on the presidential horse race.

Hillary Clinton’s Lead Continues to Dwindle as Elections Approach

McClatchy-Marist Poll, 8/4-8/4

General Election Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 47% – Chris Christie 41% – undecided 12%
  • Hillary Clinton 48% – Jeb Bush 41% – undecided 10%
  • Hillary Clinton 48% – Rand Paul 42% – undecided 10%

The most recent McClatchy-Marist Poll measured the results of a general election if it were to occur today. The results favored a Hillary Clinton victory with a spread of +6. Her most capable opponent would be Rand Paul with 42% of the vote while Jeb Bush and Chris Christie secured only 41%. The margin of error was measured at 3%.

Statistically, 28% of voters were Democrat, 25% Republican, 45% independent, and 2% other. Of those voters, 17% identified as strong Democrats, 11% as moderate Democrats, 14% as independents that leaned towards the Democrats, 12% as pure independents, 18% as independents that leaned towards the Republicans, 10% as moderate Republicans, and 15% as strong Republicans.

The overall political ideology of the poll leaned towards the conservative side. 41% of voters admitted that they were conservative, 36% moderate, and only 22% as liberal. The gender gap was nearly even, 48% of voters were men and 52% were women.

Clinton has enjoyed a sizeable lead for a long period of time, but as elections come closer and the Republicans move towards officially selecting their candidate, her lead will likely continue to drop as her opponent will be clear. Rand Paul seems like the safe choice for the Republicans if they want to score a victory over Clinton, but there are still too many unknown factors to say whether or not he could win in an election.

There is also a potential chance that Clinton could lose the nomination if candidates like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren were to run. If she manages to win the Democrat’s nomination, she should be able to secure her position as the next president so long as she engages in a safe campaign that avoids antagonizing large populations of voters.

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