The latest on the presidential horse race.

Iowa Senate: Stalemate between Ernst and Braley

Rasmussen Reports, 9/17 – 9/18

Iowa Senate

  • Joni Ernst – Republican – 43%
  • Bruce Braley – Democrat – 43%
  • Other – 4%
  • Undecided – 10%

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll has revealed that the race for the Iowa Senate is a dead-even tie. The poll had a margin of error of 4% and surveyed 750 likely voters. Participants were asked who they would vote for if an election were to occur today. 43% of the voters chose the Republican Joni Ernst, 43% the Democrat Bruce Braley, 4% were interested in a different candidate, and 10% were undecided.

The demographics for this poll were as follows: 49% of the voters were male, 51% were female, 23% were aged 18-39, 51% were 40-64, and 26% were over the age of 65, 94% were white and 6% were non-white, and 34% identified as Republicans, 32% as Democrats, and 34% as a different party. The results of this poll are fair based on the fact that the party split was fairly even.

In terms of favorability, Ernst scored an approval rating of 47% and a disapproval rating of 44%, while Braley’s approval rating and disapproval rating were exactly the same. In terms of name recognition, 4% of the voters have never heard of Ernst and 3% of them have never heard of Braley. The similarity of the approval ratings makes it nearly impossible to predict who will win the election. The state is considered a toss-up at this point and it will likely remain that way until the polls close.

Like most states in the U.S., 51% of the voters view healthcare reform as unfavorable. If Braley wants to take the lead in the polls, she will have to convince voters that healthcare reform is beneficial and important to them. The Democrats have the tools to succeed, but they need to convince voters that these tools are valuable and worth voting for.

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