The latest on the presidential horse race.

2014 Senate Polls Update: Iowa, Kansas, Georgia, Michigan

Iowa: Quinnipiac

  • Ernst (R): 49
  • Braley (D): 45

Georgia: Survey USA

  • Perdue (R): 48
  • Nunn (D): 45
  • Swafford (L): 3

Kansas: NBC News/Marist

  • Orman (I): 44
  • Roberts (R): 42

Michigan: Mitchell Research

  • Peters (D): 52
  • Land (R): 38

Polls are being released daily, sometimes even more frequently, in the states with the tightest senate races and we are getting a pretty good idea of who stands where. Let’s take a look at the latest numbers from four of the most competitive races in the nation.

In Iowa, we are seeing some very contradictory poll results as a Quinnipiac poll of likely voters has Republican Joni Ernst up by 4 while a Loras College poll of likely voters has Democrat Bruce Braley up by 1. RealClearPolitics has Ernst leading by an average margin of 47-45. According to FiveThirtyEight, Ernst has a 67 percent chance of winning the race while Braley has a 33 percent chance.

In Georgia, three new polls have Republican David Perdue leading Democrat Michelle Nunn by 2-3 percent with Libertarian candidate Amanda Swafford pulling in 3-4 percent. If no candidate gets 50 percent plus one vote there will be a runoff election in January. A runoff race would definitely change things but right now FiveThirtyEight gives both Nunn and Perdue a 50-50 chance at winning, the only such race in the country.

In Kansas, independent candidate Greg Orman leads Republican incumbent Pat Roberts by 2 percent in a new Survey USA poll and by 1 percent in a new NBC News/Marist poll. FiveThirtyEight gives Orman a 51 percent chance to defeat the Republican.

In Michigan, in a race that was separated by 2-3 percent just two months ago, Democrat Gary Peters has absolutely blown open his lead, leading Republican Terri Lynn Land by 14 percent in the latest Mitchell Research poll and 15 percent in the latest Detroit News poll. According to FiveThirtyEight, Peters has a 98 percent chance to win this race.