2014 Senate Polls Update: Michigan, North Carolina, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky
Arkansas: USA Today
- Pryor (D): 45
- Cotton (R): 43
- Perdue (R): 46
- Nunn (D): 45
- McConnell (R): 46
- Grimes (D): 42
- Peters (D): 41
- Land (R): 39
- Sullivan (R): 45
- Begich (D): 42
North Carolina: PPP
- Hagan (D): 46
- Tillis (R): 42
This is the peak of the campaign season and voters all over the nation are increasingly tortured by copious amounts of campaign ads on television, radio, and front lawns. There’s been quite a bit of movement in the polls lately, so clearly these are having some effect. Let’s take a look at the latest numbers from some of the most competitive races in the Senate.
In Georgia, where Republican David Perdue had led Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn by as many as 9-10 points, a new Survey USA poll has Perdue up by just 1 percent. In August, Survey USA had him up by 9 and in early September he was up by just 3 so this could be a trend. A recent WSB-TV/Landmark poll even had Nunn up by a few points. This one is not over by a longshot.
In Kentucky, Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes has now finished within 4-5 percent of Republican incumbent Senator and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in six of the last seven polls. The Democrats are looking to spend a ton of money to try to unseat McConnell so Grimes is definitely still in the race.
In Michigan, where Democrat Gary Peters had been leading Republican Terri Lynn Land by as much a 9-10 percent, Peters has now led Land by just 2-3 percent in three of the last four polls. Looks like Land is building some momentum heading into October.
In Alaska, we can officially say Mark Begich is in trouble. Not only has he trailed Republican challenger Dan Sullivan in every poll since July, Nate Silver points out that Alaska tends to overpoll Democrats in Alaska by an average of 7-8 percent. That means that while Begich is down 3-6 percent, he may actually be down as much as 10 or more.
In North Carolina, where Republican Thom Tillis has led a handful of polls in July and early August, incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan has now led seven straight polls and RealClearPolitics reports she leads Tillis by an average of 5 percent.
In Arkansas, where Republican challenger Tom Cotton had led four straight polls, a new USA Today poll has incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor up by 2. Arkansas is hard to judge but considering Cotton has led 10 of the last 12 polls, he looks to have the edge.
All in all, Perdue, McConnell, Cotton, and Sullivan are all Republicans likely to win their races while Hagan and Peters are Democrats likely to win theirs.