2014 Senate Polls Update: North Carolina, Colorado, Kansas, Georgia, Iowa
North Carolina: PPP
- Hagan (D): 47
- Tillis (R): 44
Georgia: Atlanta Journal-Constitution
- Perdue (R): 44
- Nunn (D): 42
- Gardner (R): 46
- Udall (D): 41
- Ernst (R): 48
- Braley (D): 46
- Orman (I): 49
- Roberts (R): 44
We know that the closer it is to election time, the more accurate the polls become. We’ve seen a flurry of polls from the country’s tightest senate races released this week and we have a better idea of what’s to come in November. Let’s take a look at how the most competitive senate races are shaping up.
In North Carolina, three new polls have Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan leading Republican challenger Thom Tillis by 2-3 percent while a Civitas poll has the race tied. The PPP poll with Hagan up by 3 and the Rasmussen poll with Hagan up by 2 have the lowest margin of error and are more reliable so it appears that Hagan has a slight lead heading into November.
In Georgia, where Democrat Michelle Nunn was pulling ahead by 1-3 percent, a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll has Republican David Perdue leading by 2 percent. Perdue had led nearly every single poll between the summer and October before he took a hit over his outsourcing practices when he was the CEO of Dollar General. Perdue remains a slight favorite to win but Nunn is doing everything she can to stay competitive.
In Colorado, where incumbent Democrat Mark Udall looked like a lock to win, Republican challenger Cory Gardner is now the odds-on favorite. Gardner has now led nine straight polls and leads the latest Quinnipiac poll by 5 percent. The last nine polls all have Gardner up anywhere from 2-7 percent and he appears to be the frontrunner.
In Iowa, the race remains tight but Republican Joni Ernst has now led five straight polls with a slight 1-4 percent lead over Democrat Bruce Braley. The latest Quinnipiac poll has Ernst up by 2 so Braley is certainly still in it but failing to gain traction.
That brings us to Kansas, where the polling is a bloody mess. Since the beginning of the month, incumbent Republican Pat Roberts had led a CNN poll by 1 and a Fox News poll by 5 while independent challenger Greg Orman has led a Survey USA poll by 5, a PPP poll by 3, and a Rasmussen poll by 5. Since the Fox News poll was conducted online, and is less reliable, I’d be more inclined to lean with the Rasmussen numbers. Orman has now led Roberts by 5+ percent in eight of the 13 polls out of Kansas.