The latest on the presidential horse race.

2016 Poll: Hillary Clinton Losing Ground in North Carolina

PPP, 1/9-1/12
North Carolina

  • Clinton 47, Paul 43
  • Clinton 46, Bush 44
  • Clinton 47, Cruz 41

In November, it looked as though Hillary Clinton had a lock on the crucial swing state of North Carolina as she led everyone but Chris Christie by a sizable margin. A new PPP poll, however, shows that the GOP pack is gaining on Clinton and the former Secretary of State’s lead over most candidates now falls within the margin of error.

The poll, conducted between January 9 and January 12, sampling 1,384 registered voters, found that still Clinton leads Rand Paul, Jeb Bush, and Ted Cruz in North Carolina but by no more than six points, a big turnaround from what we saw in November.

In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup against Rand Paul, Clinton leads by a margin of 47-43. In November, Clinton led by 9 percent and last spring she was up by 12 percent. Among very conservative voters, Paul leads 91-6 but among very liberal voters, Hillary leads 79-13 and 76-14 among somewhat liberal voters. She has a big 60-25 lead among moderates, though, and also has 26 percent support among somewhat conservative voters.

Against Jeb Bush, Hillary leads by a 46-44 margin as Bush inches closer after finishing 4 percent back in November. Bush leads Hillary among very conservative voters 85-6 and among somewhat conservative voters 68-22. Among very liberal voters, Hillary has a 81-16 lead, along with a 79-16 lead among somewhat liberal voters, and 58-25 among moderates.

Hillary performed best against Texas Senator Ted Cruz, leading by a 47-41 margin. That’s still down from her 8 percent lead in December and 12 point lead in November. Hillary leads Cruz 81-9 among very liberal voters, 75-14 among somewhat liberal voters, and 61-23 among moderates. Cruz has a 86-6 advantage among very conservative voters and 63-26 among somewhat conservative voters.

The poll also has Christie and Clinton in a dead heat but you can take those numbers with a grain of salt since the poll was conducted before all of Christie’s post-Bridgegate scandals came out. We’ll have to wait for updated numbers to see how Christie is faring now.

Clearly, very conservative voters have no interest in Hillary but liberals are not entirely averse to voting for a Republican, even a Tea Partier.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)