2016 Poll: Iowa Republican Race Tightens With 4-Way Tie
- Huckabee: 11
- Paul: 10
- Bush: 10
- Cruz: 9
- Christie: 7
- Ryan: 6
- Walker: 6
- Rubio: 6
- Santorum: 6
- Perry: 3
- Jindal: 3
Since last year, Mike Huckabee has led every single Iowa poll that has included him. Now, the former Arkansas Governor finds himself in a virtual four-way tie as the first-in-the-nation Republican caucus becomes anyone’s game.
According to the poll, conducted by Suffolk between April 3 and April 8, sampling 127 likely Iowa caucus goers, Mike Huckabee leads the Iowa Republican race by a mere 1 percent, well within the margin of error. In every other poll we’ve seen that has included Huckabee, the Fox News host has finished first with 14-17 percent of the vote.
One candidate that poses the greatest threat to Huckabee is Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, who has now finished second to Huckabee in every poll we’ve seen. Paul is just a point behind the 2008 Republican candidate and has been on the rise ever since winning the CPAC Straw Poll in March.
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush finished in a second-place tie with Paul receiving 10 percent of the vote. We have seen Bush at 8-14 percent in Iowa, depending on how many candidates are included in the survey. Bush certainly has a legitimate chance at winning the bulk of Iowan votes in 2016 as well.
Don’t count out Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who finished a close third with 9 percent of the vote. Cruz has been polling at 7-10 percent so this is where we’d expect him to be. Without Huckabee in the race, Cruz has polled as high as 16 percent in Iowa.
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie continues his skid, falling to 7 percent after seeing 16-17 percent in late 2013. Not far behind him are Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum with 6 percent apiece. Those candidates are watering down the votes of the frontrunners more than actually making a push themselves at this point in the process.
Trailing everyone are Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and Texas Governor Rick Perry with just 3 percent apiece.
(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)