The latest on the presidential horse race.

Bill Cassidy Has Strong Lead Over Mary Landrieu in Louisiana Senate Run-Off Race

NBC News/Marist

  • Cassidy (R): 50
  • Landrieu (D): 45

USA Today/Suffolk

  • Cassidy (R): 48
  • Landrieu (D): 41

As expected, no candidate received more than 50 percent of the vote in Louisiana’s open primary, thus triggering a run-off election between the top two vote-getters.

On December 6, incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu will go head-to-head with Republican Bill Cassidy to determine the state’s senate seat.

Landrieu led the open primary with 42 percent of the vote while Cassidy received 41 percent and fellow Republican Rob Maness received 14 percent.

With Maness out of the race, the scales have tipped heavily into Cassidy’s favor.

Aside from getting just 42 percent of the vote compared to 55 percent for the top two Republicans, head-to-head polls show Landrieu is in serious trouble as the run-off approaches.

An NBC News/Marist poll has Cassidy leading by 5 percent, a USA Today/Suffolk poll has Cassidy leading by 7, and a CBS News/New York Times poll has Cassidy up by 4.

While that in itself is a solid lead, we also saw on Tuesday just how much polls were skewed toward Democrats.

According to FiveThirtyEight, the average poll was skewed 4 percent toward Democrats, the largest Democratic bias recorded since 1990. Polling bias obviously didn’t help as the Democrats were slaughtered on election night, though part of the bias may have been related to a low voter turnout among Democrats.

This means that Cassidy is likely even more ahead of Landrieu, especially given the 55 percent of the vote the two GOPers received in the open primary. Landrieu also has just a 44 percent favorable rating in her state while 50 percent of Louisiana residents have an unfavorable view of the three-term senator.