The latest on the presidential horse race.

Can Elizabeth Warren Pull an Obama Against Hillary?

This isn’t the first time a Hillary Clinton nomination has appeared “inevitable.”

In the leadup to the 2008 primaries, it long appeared that Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic nominee and the next in line to be president. Things didn’t quite go that way.

At this point (two and a half years out) in the 2008 process, then-Senator Obama was polling at around 7 percent to Hillary Clinton’s 33, and many polls didn’t include him at all in favor of potential candidates like Al Gore, John Kerry, John Edwards, and Joe Biden.

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren actually finds herself in a better spot now than Obama did in 2006, despite trailing Clinton by 50+ points in the polls.

The only difference between this primary and 2008 is the lack of candidates. Outside of Hillary and Warren, only Joe Biden is polling in relevant numbers while candidates like New York Governor Andrew Cuomo look like massive longshots. Otherwise, Warren is in a prime spot to elevate her standing over the next two years and pull out an Obama-like victory.

It’ll all come down to early momentum.

In the Iowa first-in-the-nation caucus, Clinton has seen her numbers slip from 71 percent to 59 percent in the most recent poll while Warren has inched up from single-digits to 11-12 percent in the Hawkeye State.

In the New Hampshire first-in-the-nation primary, Warren has also edged up from single-digits to 13 percent in the last poll we’ve seen.

Certainly, Warren does not have the same amount of candidates to water down Hillary’s poll numbers as there were in 2008 but that doesn’t mean she can’t pull off the same type of upset – and an influx of more progressive or fringe candidates like former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders could certainly hit Hillary’s base.

A look at the 2008 primary poll trends shows that Obama wasn’t consistently polling at 20 percent until February of 2007. In other words, if Warren is polling 20-23 percent by February/March of 2015, she would be right where Obama was and her current trajectory shows her doing just that.

(Image courtesy of Senate Democrats)

  • GARDY

    Damm the Republican, dirty lies, etc. None of the Repukes who want to be. Pres. In 2016, including ol’ JEB…. ye haw! No friggin way! No more dang BUSHES in the White house, his father and brother both were nothing but low intelligence Puppets!

    • Artisticidea

      His father, actually, was highly intelligent and that was not a good thing.

  • JMILLBROOK

    Comments like these have always been the problem with politics in America. The bottom line is Hillary is unelectable, Betty is just another Barry and the politicians on both all sides need to find more suitable candidates. The voters are paying more attention now after the debacle of the last 13 1/2 years.

    • Debbie Karkiainen
      • JMILLBROOK

        Debbie I live 1/4 mile outside the sqaw island compound. They didn’t support her in 08 and won’t in 16. She is not electable. They have their eyes on barry jr. We’ll see what happens.

        • Debbie Karkiainen

          Who is looking at Barry Jr.? Are you talking about Goldwater? That wouldn’t be the same people looking at Hillary, I wouldn’t think. I believe she is electable, but we’ll see.

        • JMILLBROOK

          BARRY OBAMA!!! THINK ABOUT IT.

  • SbirdScott

    There is no doubt in my mind that Senator Warren could and win in the next Presidential election. If Hillary wants to win, she had better start getting Elizabeth to campaign with her. Personally, I feel Senator Warren is our Country’s only chance for full recovery from the mess Obama found us in when he took over. To bad he used the Old Guard to assist him.

    • JMILLBROOK

      ANYONE IN THEIR RIGHT MIND KNOWS CLINTON, GINGRICH, BARNEY AND HIS FRIENDS AND THE FED CAUSED THE PROBLEM WERE IN.
      LETS FIND SOMETHING TO DO WITH ALL THAT OIL MONEY!!!

  • JMILLBROOK

    What the country needs is full employment with a livable wage. You can’t force this. It has to be NURTURED. What to do with the oil money back in the 90’s caused the problems of the past and Harvard professors should not get paid $300,000 a year. SHAME

  • JMILLBROOK

    I’T WOULD BE NICE IF THE ANOINTED ONE HAD SOME COMPETITION. GO ELIZABETH!!!

  • Artisticidea

    I like your comparative statistical approach. This is far more useful than invective or speculation without an objective basis of reference. Some factors to consider: Warren would have to dilute her already less than idealistic brand to get the kind of money capable of buying enough airtime and mouthpieces to land herself a nomination win. This is because only those that support the oligarchy’s trade relations, finance rules and war agendas are permitted to rise past the fray. While Hillary is likely unelectable, a newcomer would – like Obama – have to give the appearance of fresh/progressive/reformist/populist while promissing the representatives of the major interests sweet deals and ultimate loyalty behind closed doors…otherwise the mainstream media outlets alligned with said interests will stop at nothing, including outright deception and intentional omission and misreporting of primary results and polling results (as was clearly, objectively the case in Ron Paul’s 2012 presidential attempt), should a non-alligned, genuine reformist capture the popular imagination of the base.

    The last and perhaps most Progressive candidate the DNC ran was Dukakis or maybe Mondale…ever since Bill Clinton’s ascendancy and the end of the Cold War, the binary party systems of the so called liberal republics (liberal in the Classical sense) are not capable of returning results in either the public interest or in correspondence with the wishes of the majority, when touching matters of substance such as trade rules and relations, the IMF and WB, Capital Gains tax, monetary policy, banking, lending and investment oversight reform, War, Antitrust, the provision universal access to healthcare, housing or education.

    The only solution to this de facto oligarchy via press bias hegenomy is to vote only for parties other than the GOP or DNC in national elections. There is no other viable means of achieving reform within the two corporate-owned parties.

  • ken

    The best idea is to get Warren to serve as vice President under Hillary for two terms then as president for two terms With Bill or Hillary. Both these two people have shown the highest ability to lead and to correct problems of anyone Republican or Democrat, Green, etc,