The latest on the presidential horse race.

Hillary Clinton Leads Chris Christie, GOP Pack in Ohio

Quinnipiac, 11/19-11/24

Ohio:

  • Clinton: 42, Christie: 41
  • Clinton: 50, Paul: 40
  • Clinton: 49, Ryan: 41
  • Clinton: 50, Bush: 37
  • Clinton: 48, Rubio: 39
  • Clinton: 50, Cruz: 35

Many 2016 polls have shown Chris Christie as an early favorite over Hillary Clinton but the tide may be turning as Christie’s novelty wears off. A new Quinnipiac poll has found that Hillary Clinton leads Christie by a slight 1 percent margin in the key swing state of Ohio and holds a strong advantage over the rest of the potential Republican candidates.

The poll, conducted between November 19 and November 24, sampled one of the largest population samples of the polling season, surveying 1,361 registered Ohio voters. Of those, 42 percent said they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton,compared with 41 percent for New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, in a hypothetical 2016 matchup. In a poll conducted back in August, Clinton held a 9 percent lead so Christie is still trending up, despite trailing.

While the hypothetical race between Clinton and Christie is a dead heat, the poll once again confirmed Christie’s strength over the rest of the GOP pack in a general election. The next closest candidate to Clinton is Paul Ryan, a congressman from neighboring Wisconsin. Ryan trails Clinton by 8 percent, however, with the former First Lady holding a 49-41 lead.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio is the only other candidate that doesn’t trail Clinton by double-digits. Rubio trails the former New York Senator by a 48-39 margin. Clinton leads Kentucky Senator Rand Paul 50-40, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush 50-37, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz 50-35.

While Christie enjoys solid support from a general electorate, it may be lackluster support from his own party that limits his electoral potential. While 50 percent of those polled said Hillary Clinton would make a good president, including 90 percent of Democrats and 53 percent of independents, just 44 percent of those polled said Chris Christie would make a good president and just 56 percent of Republicans and 46 percent of independents.

Ohio and its 18 electoral votes have been a key part of every winning national strategy in the modern era. Barack Obama won the state in 2012 and 2008. George Bush won the state in 2004 and 2000. Bill Clinton won the state in 1996 and 1992. George H. W. Bush won the state in 1988 and Ronald Reagan carried Ohio in both of his elections.

(Image courtesy of Marc Nozell)