The latest on the presidential horse race.

Hillary Clinton Takes Big Lead in Another Key Swing State

Quinnipiac, 2/12-2/17

  • Clinton: 49, Ryan: 40
  • Clinton: 51, Paul: 38
  • Clinton: 49, Christie: 36
  • Clinton: 50, Rubio: 36
  • Clinton: 51, Bush: 36
  • Clinton: 51, Cruz: 34

No president has won an election without carrying the key swing state of Ohio since Franklin Delano Roosevelt did it in 1944. That’s why a new Quinnipiac poll that shows Hillary Clinton with a big lead in the Buckeye State over every potential Republican candidate is that much more important than most others.

The poll, conducted between February 12 and February 17, sampling 1,370 registered voters, found that Hillary has a commanding lead over any potential candidate the GOP may nominate. The closest candidate to Clinton is Paul Ryan, a congressman from neighboring Wisconsin, who trails the former Secretary of State by a 49-40 margin.

Every other candidate finds themselves with a double-digit deficit. If Ohio Governor John Kasich ran for president, which is not likely at this point in time, even he would trail Clinton by 12 points, despite the homefield advantage.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie both trail the former New York Senator by 13 points. Clinton leads Paul by a margin of 51-38 while pulling ahead of Christie by a margin of 49-36. In the last Quinnipiac poll, conducted back in November, Christie trailed Clinton by just one point while Paul has trailed Clinton in Ohio by double-digits since the summer.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio trails the former First Lady by a margin of 50-36. In November, it appeared that Rubio could be closing in on Hillary as he inched closer to a 9 point deficit. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush didn’t do any better, trailing Clinton by a margin of 51-36. He has trailed by at least 13 percent since polling began.

Lagging behind everyone was Texas Senator Ted Cruz, finishing 17 percent behind Hillary. In November, he trailed the presumptive Democratic nominee by a similar 15 percent.

(Image courtesy of US Embassy New Zealand)