The latest on the presidential horse race.

Jeb Bush Momentum Builds, Jumps Into First Place in New Iowa Poll

Magellan, 4/14-4/15
Iowa GOP

  • Huckabee: 17
  • Bush: 17
  • Christie: 14
  • Paul: 11
  • Cruz: 10
  • Walker: 8
  • Kasich: 5
  • Rubio: 2

Mike Huckabee has led every Iowa poll this year and has been the frontrunner for the first-in-the-nation caucus for months. That is, until now, as a new Magellan poll has found that Jeb Bush has continued to build some momentum over the past couple of weeks with extensive media attention on whether or not he will run, and is now tied with the 2008 Iowa caucus winner in the polls.

According to the poll, conducted between April 14 and 15, sampling 808 likely Iowa caucus goers, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush are tied for first place in the first 2016 caucus with 17 percent apiece.

Huckabee has now finished with 14-17 percent in four of the last five polls we’ve seen out of Iowa so his standing has largely remained the same. On the other hand, Bush, benefitting from the fact that Paul Ryan and Rick Santorum were not included in the poll, has now leapt from 10-11 percent to 17. Much of that also has to do with recent media coverage focused on whether Bush will run in 2016.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie continues to recover from his Bridgegate scandal, and also benefitted from fewer candidates included in the poll, and is right behind the frontrunners with 14 percent of the vote. Christie had finished in single-digits in Iowa in the last three polls so this is a welcome sign for the embattled Jersey guv.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul finished third with 11 percent of the vote. Paul has seen 9-10 percent of the vote in the last three polls so this is right where he has been.

Fellow Tea Partier and Texas Senator Ted Cruz finished right behind Paul with 10 percent of the vote. Like Christie, Cruz had finished with single-digits in three straight Iowa polls so this is a solid reversal.

No one else figures to make much of a dent as Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker finished with 8 percent, Ohio Governor John Kasich received 5 percent, and Marco Rubio saw just 2 percent. Sixteen percent of respondents say they remain undecided.