The latest on the presidential horse race.

Jeb Bush Takes Lead in New Hampshire Poll

Gravis Marketing, 1/29-1/30
New Hampshire

  • Bush: 16
  • Christie: 15
  • Paul: 12
  • Cruz: 12
  • Huckabee: 11
  • Rubio: 8
  • Walker: 7
  • Santorum: 3

Through February, we have only seen New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul lead the GOP pack in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary race. According to a new Gravis Marketing poll, however, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has pulled ahead to take a slight lead as his campaign begins to gain traction in the wake of Christie’s bridge scandal.

According to the poll, conducted between January 29 and January 30, sampling 498 registered Republican primary voters, Jeb Bush leads the GOP pack in the Granite State with 16 percent of the vote. We have seen Bush’s numbers fluctuate as New Hampshire voters are difficult to pin down but he has now received 12+ percent in three of the last four New Hampshire polls we’ve seen in January.

Chris Christie has fallen off somewhat but is still in a good spot in New Hampshire as he placed second in the poll with 15 percent of the vote. In early January, Christie had been polling at 24 percent so this is still a significant drop off, even though 68 percent of respondents say they don’t believe that Christie ordered the George Washington Bridge lane closings as political retribution.

Rand Paul, who has placed first in three of the last four New Hampshire polls, finished third with 12 percent of the vote. Paul has been the most consistent candidate in New Hampshire, polling at 16+ percent in six of the last seven Granite State polls.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who has failed to register double-digits in all but one survey since polling began, has suddenly tied Paul with 12 percent. This is by far his best showing yet.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee continues to inch upward, finishing right behind Cruz with 11 percent of the vote. He also received 11 percent in a PPP poll conducted earlier in January.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who has seen his numbers drop to the single digits in every New Hampshire poll since July, continues to struggle to gain support in the first-in-the-nation primary state, receiving just 8 percent. Right behind him was Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker with 7 percent and trailing everyone was former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum with 3 percent. Sixteen percent of respondents say they remain undecided.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)