The latest on the presidential horse race.

Nate Silver Says Dems Will Lose Senate in 2014, What About Hillary in 2016?

Earlier this week, top political pollster and founder of FiveThirtyEight.com Nate Silver made headlines when the notably accurate statistician predicted the Republicans will win the Senate in the 2014 midterms.

Silver specifically cited West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, and Arkansas as states where Democratic senators are almost locks to lose their seats. He points to Louisiana, North Carolina, Michigan, and Alaska as states where the Republicans might be able to pick up seats.

The biggest factor in his new prediction, Silver says, is Barack Obama’s approval rating dragging down incumbent Democrats. So what does this all mean for Hillary Clinton’s chances in 2016?

West Virginia: Clinton is in big trouble in West Virginia, trailing Jeb Bush by 14 percent, Chris Christie by 9, Ted Cruz by 3, Rand Paul by 10, and Paul Ryan by 12. That’s 5 electoral votes the GOP can basically put on their map already.

South Dakota: We haven’t seen South Dakota polling and for good reason. South Dakota hasn’t been won by a Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. That’s another 3 electoral votes the GOP can rely on.

Montana: In Montana, Clinton is in a 45-45 tie with Jeb Bush and trails Christie by 5 percent. No other candidates were polled. Still, it’s a slim margin so Montana and its 3 electoral votes are still for the taking.

Arkansas: We don’t have any recent numbers from Arkansas but a poll from late 2013 showed Clinton leading Christie by 2 percent and Rand Paul by 3 percent. Either way, it’s too close to call so Arkansas’ 6 electoral votes remain in play.

Louisiana: The Bayou State has gone red in every election since 1996 but did vote for Bill Clinton in the 96 election. Clinton is giving the GOP a run for its money in the red stronghold, trailing Christie by 1 percent, Bobby Jindal by 2 percent, Rand Paul by 4 percent, Mike Huckabee by 5 percent, and Jeb Bush by 7 percent. It’s leaning Republican but it’s too early to call where Louisiana’s 8 electoral votes will go.

North Carolina: As of March 2014, Clinton leads Bush by 1 percent, Christie by 4, Paul by 6, and Huckabee by 7 in North Carolina. It’s certainly not a lock to go blue but North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes are up for grabs.

Michigan: This is traditionally a blue state and has gone for a Democrat in every election since 1988. Christie could certainly make it interesting, only trailing Hillary by 3 percent, but Clinton leads Bush by 4, Paul by 9, and Cruz by 11. Of course, this poll was taken pre-Bridgegate so for now we can safely leave Michigan’s 16 electoral votes in the Hillary column until we see otherwise.

Alaska: Clinton leads former Governor Sarah Palin in her home state but that’s about it. Clinton trails Bush by 8, Christie by 4, Huckabee by 4, and Paul by 6. Those are fairly slim margins but, like Michigan, or rather the opposite, this is a traditionally red state that should stay that way. We’ll safely leave Alaska’s 3 electoral votes in the red column until we see otherwise.

So where’s that leave Hillary in Nate Silver’s 2014 key states?

Hillary: 16, Republican: 11, Too Close to Call: 32

(Image courtesy of Alan C.)

  • David Kelley

    Is Hillary having facelifts? Either they are airbrushing her face or she has some amazing anti wrinkle cream. Everything about that woman is either a lie or a fake! America needs Hillary like it needs
    Maclom X.

    • Dante Ardenz

      Oh yes! Lets get another Bush 2 please..I hve new for you,as a former Repuublican. IF,they make,and try to pull their Isreal First,AIPAC Agenda for more wars;shove Fundamenatlist TV Preacher Religion down our throats,cut taxes for the 1%,and make it real tough,on the growing poor,you will get a REAL REVOLUTION.PS Mrs Cinton is a public figure who takes care of her apearance
      .No kidding?

    • ReadLearnThink

      No she is not. But if she was, so what??

  • Hey you

    Evidently, there are people who think that there will be a USA national election in 2016. Maybe, but it seems likely that some secessions will limit the reach of a 2016 federal election.

    • Phil Sanborn

      dream on.

    • Dante Ardenz

      Tea Party Poison !

    • Basedrum

      How did that line of thinking work for the south last time?

  • JMILLBROOK

    I think you will find that the republicans are all on the same page this time around, You know what that means.

  • George Gerson

    As an old fashioned Conservative, I hope tat the American people dramatically change a Congress that only has a 9 % approval rating.
    The Neocons have basically ruined this nation except for a precious few. We have become a nation of, by, and for the government. A government that works for itself. Term limits please.
    What a great campaign platform winner…Hillary’s facelifts. Get real.

  • David Hovgaard

    Hillary has too much baggage. Warren would make a better candidate because she terrifies the GOP. They can’t deal with the truth and she gives it to them with both barrels.
    I have seen this pattern so many times before. Republicans screw everything up because greed isn’t a policy it’s a disease that causes bad policy to be enacted. The GOP screws up. They get voted out democrats clean up the mess but refuse to take credit for it because the Republicans call them liberals so they cringe in fear while flatly denying it. Meanwhile the GOP uses democratic ineptitude at campaigning to win an election by pandering to the fear and stupidity of a large segment of voters and the cycle starts again.
    If the democrats ever decided to run as democrats and point out that the GOP is a bunch of lying greed heads who have no ideas beyond picking your pocket and giving it to the rich, they would win. But as long as the Democrats refuse to take liberal back by owning it and turning it from a poor insult hurled at a candidate because his GOP opponent has nothing of value to say into a strength by pointing out how liberal polices have moved this country forward while conservative policies have caused it to crash and burn the GOP with their appeal to fear, prejudice and stupidity will win every time.