The latest on the presidential horse race.

New Hampshire Republican Primary All Tied Up

Suffolk University/Boston Herald
New Hampshire GOP

  • Paul: 12
  • Christie: 12
  • Bush: 9
  • Ryan: 9
  • Huntsman: 8
  • Walker: 7
  • Rubio: 6
  • Huckabee: 5
  • Cruz: 5
  • Brown: 5
  • Jindal: 4
  • Santorum: 2

Although Rand Paul led two New Hampshire polls in January, it would seem that Chris Christie is coming back in the polls and has tied the Kentucky Senator in the latest Suffolk University/Boston Herald New Hampshire survey.

The poll, conducted between February 27 and March 5, sampling 426 likely primary voters, found that Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie are tied for first place with 12 percent apiece.

Although Paul has led in two consecutive polls this year, his numbers have dropped steadily from 18 to 16 to 12. On the other hand, Christie fell from 24 to 17 to 9 during his Bridgegate saga but appears to be trending back up with the scandal no longer the focus of public attention. A closer look at the raw data shows that Paul technically leads Christie 12.2 to 11.5 but that’s irrelevant in a poll with a margin of error of several points.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush finished with 9 percent, as did Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan. We’ve seen Bush’s number fluctuate greatly from poll to poll, registering as high as 13 percent and as low a 3 percent. Ryan has seen an uptick in recent months, moving up from 4 percent to 6 and now 9.

Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, one of the few moderates left in the Republican party, finished fifth with 8 percent. Huntsman ran in 2012 and remains highly unlikely to make any waves if he does run.

None of the other candidates made much of a dent in the race. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker finished with 7 percent (up from 2), Florida Senator Marco Rubio finished with 6 percent (also finished with 6 percent in the last poll in January), former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz finished with 5 percent, and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal finished with 4 percent. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum finished dead last with 2 percent.

Fourteen percent of respondents remain undecided so the race can still go many different ways.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)