The latest on the presidential horse race.

New Iowa Poll: Elizabeth Warren Gains Traction as Early Signs of ‘Hillary Fatigue’ Begin to Show

Suffolk, 4/3-4/8
Iowa Democratic Caucus

  • Clinton: 63
  • Warren: 12
  • Biden: 10
  • Warner: 1
  • Cuomo: 1

We have noted that one major problem of Hillary Clinton’s long presumed frontrunner status in the Democratic primary is that eventually Hillary fatigue is bound to set in. In fact, some signs of Hillary fatigue may already be starting to show as Democrats look for alternative candidates. A new Suffolk poll shows that Elizabeth Warren has more than doubled her support in Iowa over the past two months and could pose a legitimate challenge to Clinton by the time the primaries roll around in January of 2016.

The poll, conducted between April 3 and April 8, sampling 135 likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers, found that Elizabeth Warren has leapfrogged Vice President Joe Biden for second place in the first-in-the-nation caucus state.

Up until now, we have seen Warren polling at around 3-5 percent in Iowa, slightly lower than she has been polling in national polls. Her 12 percent represents a major leap forward in a small amount of time, regardless of how much she may be trailing Clinton by well over a year and a half out. She is also the only candidate outside of the virtually unelectable Joe Biden to show signs of life in the Democratic polls.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton has kept her first place status in Iowa but Warren is slowly chipping away. Clinton has now fallen from 71 percent of the vote last summer and fall to 67 percent in February and 63 percent in this latest survey.

Vice President Joe Biden finished in third place with 10 percent of the vote, a slight dip from his usual 11-12 percent that we have seen consistently.

The other candidates, Virginia Senator Mark Warner and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo received just 1 percent apiece and don’t stand much of a chance.

If the Democrats are in search of a Hillary alternative, Elizabeth Warren is likely their only real hope. At this point in the 2008 race, Clinton was almost guaranteed the nomination while Obama was polling at 12 percent as late as December of 2006, which would be the equivalent of December of this year in terms of the 2016 race. More so, support in Iowa can go a long way into helping Warren build momentum heading into the rest of the primary season.

(Image courtesy of Sharon Machlis Gartenberg)