The latest on the presidential horse race.

Other Candidates Inch Upward But Hillary Maintains Dominant Lead

CNN, 11/18-11/20

  • Clinton: 64
  • Biden: 12
  • Warren: 7
  • Cuomo: 4
  • O’Malley: 2

A new CNN poll has found that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has maintained her dominant 50+ point lead through November but the rest of the Democratic pack are slowly but surely beginning to trend upward as the campaign season gets underway.

The poll, conducted between November 18 and November 20 among registered Democratic voters, found Hillary with 64 percent of the vote nationally, right around where she has been since the spring. In October, a PPP poll had the former First Lady at 67 percent and a September Quinnipiac poll had her at 61 percent. A Rasmussen poll that didn’t include Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren had Clinton at 70 percent.

Vice President Joe Biden remained the only other Democrat in double digits with 12 percent of the vote. He has had between 10 and 12 percent in every national Democratic nomination poll since July so his support has been very steady. The last poll, earlier in November, had him at 10 percent.

Elizabeth Warren inched up from her 4 percent back in October and is up to 7 percent in this latest survey. The Massachusetts Senator is being touted by many liberals as a strong alternative to Hillary Clinton and has gained quite a bit of traction among young people on the web.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has slowly inched up to 4 percent. He was polling at 2 percent in September and October and at 3 percent earlier in November. Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley didn’t make much of a dent either, garnering just 2 percent of the vote.

If Joe Biden hopes to get any traction on Hillary, it’s going to have to be through older voters, low wage workers, suburban voters, and, surprisingly, women. Biden has 12 percent support among voters 65+ and 13 percent support among voters 50+. No other candidate outside of Hillary received double-digit support from those groups. Though he trails among workers making $50K or more, 14 percent of workers making less than that preferred Biden while no other candidate outside of Clinton earned more than 5 percent of their vote. He also receives 12 percent of the vote in the suburbs, compared with 10 percent in urban areas. Surprisingly, he leads Warren among women with 11 percent to her 7 percent (Hillary has 66 percent). Warren leads Biden 13 percent to 6 percent among self-identified liberals but Biden leads Warren 13 percent to just 3 percent among moderate Democrats.

(Photo courtesy of the Massachusetts National Guard)