The latest on the presidential horse race.

Primary Battle: Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul Look Likely to Split First Two States

WMUR/UNH
New Hampshire GOP

  • Paul: 15
  • Ryan: 13
  • Ayotte: 13
  • Christie: 12
  • Bush: 7
  • Cruz: 7
  • Trump: 5
  • Walker: 3
  • Jindal: 3
  • Rubio: 2
  • Perry: 1
  • Santorum: 1

Earlier this week, we saw a poll that showed former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee leading the Republican pack in Iowa. He has now led every Iowa poll in which he’s appeared. Since January, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has led in every New Hampshire poll and a new UNH poll shows that the two southern Republicans may split the first-in-the-nation primary and caucus.

According to the poll, conducted between April 1 and April 9, sampling 187 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters, Rand Paul leads the Republican pack with 15 percent of the vote. Paul has now led in every New Hampshire poll since Chris Christie’s Bridgegate fiasco that knocked the New Jersey Governor from the top of the polls.

Christie may very well be recovering, however, as he trails Paul by just three points. Christie has now seen 12 percent in the last two polls out of New Hampshire after peaking at 24 percent in January.

One name to watch is Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan who has leapfrogged the pack and finds himself in second place with 13 percent. This is the first time we have seen Paul in double-digits in New Hampshire since last July.

Of course, one name that really skews the poll is New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte, who is not expected to run for president at this time but is tied with Ryan for second.

Meanwhile, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, who peaked at 14 percent in New Hampshire last fall, along with Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who peaked at 10 percent last fall, find themselves with just 7 percent. It’s likely that some Bush supporters, and maybe even some Cruz supporters, prefer Ayotte but may not find her on the ballot come 2016.

Another name that is (hopefully) unlikely to appear on the ballot is Donald Trump, who received 5 percent of the vote.

No one else has much support in the Granite State as Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal finished with 3 percent, Florida Senator Marco Rubio is at 2 percent, and Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum are at 1 percent.