The latest on the presidential horse race.

Shock 2016 Poll: Hillary Leads Republicans in Deep Red Arkansas

PPP, 4/25-4/27

  • Clinton: 44, Huckabee: 47
  • Clinton: 46, Bush: 41
  • Clinton: 48, Paul: 42
  • Clinton: 47, Christie: 38

We have seen Hillary Clinton threaten in some deep red states before and now a new PPP poll has found that the presumptive Democratic nominee has a strong chance to carry deep red Arkansas in 2016.

According to the poll, conducted between April 25 and April 27, sampling 840 registered Arkansas voters, Clinton leads every potential Republican candidate except former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.

In a hypothetical 2016 matchup against Huckabee, the former Secretary of State trails by a 47-44 margin. Of course, when asked if they thought Huckabee should run for president in 2016, 46 percent of respondents thought he should not, compared to 39 percent who think he should.

Huckabee is the only candidate that leads Clinton. The former First Lady leads former Florida Governor Jeb Bush by a margin of 46-41, including a heavy 64-23 lead among moderates.

In a hypothetical 2016 matchup against Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, the former New York Senator leads by a margin of 48-42. As with Bush, Clinton has a strong 66-24 lead among moderate voters and a strong 52-38 advantage among female voters.

In a 2016 matchup against New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Clinton leads by a strong 9 percent. Christie, long hailed as a moderate Republican, trails Hillary among moderate voters by a margin of 60-27. Clinton also owns a healthy lead among female voters, leading the New Jersey guv by a margin of 52-36.

Arkansas has been as red a state as any and a Clinton win would be a big surprise, though Bill Clinton did carry the state in both of his elections after serving as the state’s governor. Since Clinton, however, George Bush carried the state with 51 percent of the vote against Al Gore and 54 percent against John Kerry. It has only gotten redder since Obama with John McCain winning Arkansas with 59 percent of the vote and Mitt Romney winning with 60.5 percent of the vote.

(Image courtesy of Marc Nozell)