The latest on the presidential horse race.

Shock Poll: Democrat Alison Grimes Takes Lead Over Republican Mitch McConnell in Kentucky

Courier Journal/Survey USA, 9/29-10/2
Kentucky Senate

  • Grimes (D): 46
  • McConnell (R): 44
  • Patterson (L): 3

Nearly every poll since June has had Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell leading his race against Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes but a new Courier-Journal/Survey USA poll has the incumbent down by two.

The poll, conducted between September 29 and October 2, sampling 632 likely voters, found that Grimes now leads McConnell by a margin of 46-44. Libertarian candidate David Patterson is polling at 3 percent while 7 percent of respondents remain undecided.

The last Courier-Journal poll, released in late August, had McConnell up by 4 percent.

“Today, McConnell suddenly and unexpectedly looks wobbly,” said Survey USA in a press release.

University of Kentucky professor Stephen Voss isn’t buying it, however.

“I would take these results with a grain of salt, given that they deviate from everything we’ve seen recently,” Voss told The Courier-Journal. “I don’t buy the absolute totals. I think she’s still behind.”

That doesn’t mean she’s not making headway in the race, though.

The Journal reports, “The deeper numbers in the survey do show Grimes’ ads – one showing her trap-shooting and another featuring former President Bill Clinton – are helping her gain ground with conservative democrats.”

On the flip side, the peripheral numbers don’t look great for McConnell. He may lead most polls but 57 percent of voters say it’s time for him to be replaced as Kentucky’s Senator.