The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: 2014 Iowa Senate

Iowa Senate: Ernst One Point Ahead of Braley

Des Moines Register, 10/3 – 10/8

Iowa Senate

  • Joni Ernst – Republican – 47%
  • Bruce Braley – Democrat – 46%

The Des Moines Register has released a poll that asked 1,000 likely voters several questions regarding the Iowa senate. Both candidates are neck and neck. The Republican Joni Ernst scored 47 percent of the vote, while the Democrat Bruce Braley had 46 percent. This race has been very close in the past few weeks and that looks unlikely to change.

Braley and Ernst had very similar favorability ratings. 47 percent of the voters see Ernst as favorable, while 43 percent do not. For Braley, 44 percent see him as favorable and 43 percent do not.

The poll asked voters several questions regarding politically recognizable names and whether or not they would help or harm the campaign of either candidate. For Ernst, 69 percent of the voters saw support from Chuck Grassley as positive, 67 percent said the same for Terry Branstad, while 56 and 50 percent believed Sarah Palin and the Koch brothers were detrimental to her cause.

For Braley, 65, 60, and 52 percent thought that Bill Clinton, Tom Harkin, and Hillary Clinton could help, while 53 percent saw Barack Obama as a wedge in Braley’s campaign.

In terms of important issues, unemployment and jobs ranked at the top with 19 percent of the votes, healthcare with 15 percent, the federal deficit with 14 percent, terrorism with 13 percent, and immigration with 12 percent.

59 percent of Iowans believe that the U.S. shouldn’t rule out the possibility of deploying soldiers into the Middle-East, while 32 percent believe they should steer clear of the region. 52 percent of voters believe that the U.S. must intervene to maintain its image internationally as the global military leader.

Braley’s campaign was also humiliated recently when Michelle Obama delivered a speech where she mispronounced his name several times in the process, calling him “Bailey” instead of his actual name.

Photo credit: The Debate Place.

Iowa Senate: Stalemate between Ernst and Braley

Rasmussen Reports, 9/17 – 9/18

Iowa Senate

  • Joni Ernst – Republican – 43%
  • Bruce Braley – Democrat – 43%
  • Other – 4%
  • Undecided – 10%

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll has revealed that the race for the Iowa Senate is a dead-even tie. The poll had a margin of error of 4% and surveyed 750 likely voters. Participants were asked who they would vote for if an election were to occur today. 43% of the voters chose the Republican Joni Ernst, 43% the Democrat Bruce Braley, 4% were interested in a different candidate, and 10% were undecided.

The demographics for this poll were as follows: 49% of the voters were male, 51% were female, 23% were aged 18-39, 51% were 40-64, and 26% were over the age of 65, 94% were white and 6% were non-white, and 34% identified as Republicans, 32% as Democrats, and 34% as a different party. The results of this poll are fair based on the fact that the party split was fairly even.

In terms of favorability, Ernst scored an approval rating of 47% and a disapproval rating of 44%, while Braley’s approval rating and disapproval rating were exactly the same. In terms of name recognition, 4% of the voters have never heard of Ernst and 3% of them have never heard of Braley. The similarity of the approval ratings makes it nearly impossible to predict who will win the election. The state is considered a toss-up at this point and it will likely remain that way until the polls close.

Like most states in the U.S., 51% of the voters view healthcare reform as unfavorable. If Braley wants to take the lead in the polls, she will have to convince voters that healthcare reform is beneficial and important to them. The Democrats have the tools to succeed, but they need to convince voters that these tools are valuable and worth voting for.

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