The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: 2016 Democratic Nomination

Clinton Continues to Hold a Steady Lead Over Her Democratic Rivals

The latest release by Rasmussen Reports has revealed that Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton continues to hold a commanding lead over her fellow Democrats for the presidential nomination.

  • How likely is Clinton to win the Democratic presidential nomination?
    • Very likely – 47%
    • Somewhat likely – 34%
    • Not very likely – 9%
    • Not at all likely – 4%
    • Not sure – 6%

The race for the Democrat presidential nomination is between Clinton and Bernie Sanders. While Sanders is starting to gain momentum and funding, Clinton is still a household name and a popular one at that. If she maintains a steady platform, she will more than likely take the nomination. However, Sanders is a wildcard and his far leftwing policies may force Clinton to budge from her comfort zone, which could result in a drop in the polls.

Previous polls had Clinton 44 points ahead of Sanders. However, a recent Quinnipiac poll has her at a much lower 19 point lead.

The poll was conducted on July 2 and 5. 1,000 likely U.S. voters were asked whether they would vote for Clinton or the other Democrat presidential candidates. The gender demographics for the poll were split evenly down the middle. 30 percent of voters were aged 18-39, 52 percent were 40-64, and 18 percent were over 65. The majority of the voters were white. Lastly, 31 percent of voters identified as Republican, 35 percent as Democrat, and 34 percent as other.

Photo credit: Virtru.

Clinton Edges out Republican Challengers in PPP Poll

Public Policy Polling, 30/9 Clinton vs. Republican Candidates

  • Clinton – 43%
  • Bush – 43%
  • Clinton – 45%
  • Christie – 41%
  • Clinton – 47%
  • Cruz – 39%
  • Clinton – 46%
  • Huckabee – 42%
  • Clinton – 47%
  • Paul – 42%

Public Policy Polling issued a poll at the end of September that collected data on potential elections involving the favored Democrat nomination, Hillary Clinton and the various Republican challengers that she could face in a presidential election. The results revealed that she would defeat almost every single candidate and that she would tie Jeb Bush. In an election against Jeb Bush, Clinton would tie him with 43 percent of the vote. If she were to face Chris Christie, she would achieve 45 percent of the vote, while he would only secure 41 percent. Clinton would tally 46 percent of the votes against Mike Huckabee and his 42 percent. Rand Paul would receive 42 percent of the votes to Clinton’s 47 percent. Ted Cruz would secure the least votes of all. Only 39 percent of voters would vote for him, the other 47 percent would choose Clinton.

In addition, 39 percent of the participants in this poll identified as conservative, 29 percent as liberal, and 33 percent as moderate. The party split was nearly even. 35 percent of the voters claimed to be Democrat, 36 percent Republican, and 29 percent independent. These numbers are interesting as the results in the poll favor the Democrats. Are Republicans upset with the direction of the party? Are voters beginning to see how outdated the party is? These are important questions to ask.

Clinton has enjoyed strong leads over most of her Republican challengers throughout many of the polls. Still, none of these numbers matter until we know which candidates are nominated to represent each of the parties. Stay tuned for future updates as the elections approach.

Photo credit: CBS News.

Clinton Extends Dominant Lead in Democratic Nomination Poll

Fox News, 12/14-12/16
Democrats:

  • Clinton: 68
  • Biden: 12
  • Warren: 7
  • Cuomo: 4
  • O’Malley: 1
  • Patrick: 1

Since polling began, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been well ahead of the rest of the Democratic pack and a new Fox News poll shows the former First Lady with 68 percent of the vote, her largest vote total of the year.

The poll, conducted between December 14 and December 16, sampling 412 registered Democrats, found that former New York Senator Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic pack by a whopping 56 percent over second-place finisher Joe Biden. Hillary has been polling at 64-66 percent in December and closes out 2013 with her largest vote total yet.

Vice President Joe Biden, who has seen his numbers dip from 12 percent to 8-10 in December, found himself back at 12 percent with Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer not included in the poll. For the most part, Biden has found himself between 10-13 percent since polling began.

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren finished third with 7 percent of the vote. Warren has been polling at 6-9 percent since September and, like the other candidates, has not been able to gain traction. Of course, Warren isn’t actively campaigning and has said that she isn’t running for president, although that’s also something everyone who has ever run for president has said.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo improved the 2-3 percent we’ve seen him at this fall to 4 percent in this latest poll but is a huge longshot for the 2016 nomination. Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, who remains on the poll despite never garnering more than 2 percent of the vote, finished dead last with just one percent.

Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick also finished with just 1 percent of the vote and has not been included on most polls we’ve seen.

Clearly, Hillary Clinton is heading into 2014 as the presumed choice of the Democratic party. For all of the talk about the Democrats seeking an alternative to Clinton, not one candidate has been able to gain any traction in the polls. Joe Biden is expected to stay at around 12 percent and is highly unlikely to be a serious challenger to Hillary’s frontrunner status. Elizabeth Warren, Brian Schweitzer, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders all have their supporters but no one has been able to drum up so much as double-digit support in any polls we’ve seen thus far.

(Image courtesy of Department of Defense)

Biden, Warren Stall as Hillary Widens Lead in Latest Poll

Quinnipiac, 12/3-12/9
Democrats:

  • Clinton: 66
  • Biden: 8
  • Warren: 7
  • Cuomo: 3
  • Dean: 1
  • Schweitzer: 1

Although a recent McClatchy poll showed that Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren were gaining traction in the 2016 Democratic nomination race, a new Quinnipiac poll has found that the Warren campaign has stalled and Biden has fallen below double-digit support for the first time since polling began.

The poll, conducted between December 3 and December 9, sampled 1,095 registered Democrats, the largest sample size of any national Democratic nomination poll by far since polling began. As expected, Hillary Clinton continues to own a dominant 66 percent of the vote (she has been polling at 64-67 percent since the summer) but her lead grew to 58 points as the opposition weakened.

Vice President Joe Biden, a longshot candidate to say the least, had been polling at 10-12 percent consistently since the summer. Biden finished second to Clinton once again, but this time with just 8 percent of the vote.

Elizabeth Warren, whose support steadily grew from 4 percent to 7 percent to 9 percent in the most recent polls, found herself back at 7 percent, but just one point back of the VP. If Warren can pull ahead of Biden, she could regain some of that lost traction as the main alternative to the current Democratic frontrunner.

As usual, none of the other potential Democratic candidates really made a dent. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo received 3 percent of the vote, right where he has been since polling began. Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean and former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer both received 1 percent of the vote. Twelve percent of respondents remain undecided.

Biden’s candidacy is held back by his controversial nature. Just 37 percent of all voters polled said they had a favorable opinion of the Vice President. Just 70 percent of Democrats had a favorable opinion of him (compared with 92 percent for Hillary) while 79 percent of Republicans and 53 percent of independents had an unfavorable opinion of the Veep.

On the other hand, Warren, who has become a darling of the progressive youth movement, continues to suffer from a lack of name recognition. Sixty-three percent of all respondents said they didn’t know enough about the freshman Senator to have a favorable or unfavorable view, including 59 percent of Democrats, 60 percent of independents, and 70 percent of Republicans.

(Image courtesy of the Center for American Progress Action Fund)

Elizabeth Warren Gains Traction But Hillary Keeps Big Lead

McClatchy/Marist, 12/3-12/5
Democrats:

  • Clinton: 65
  • Biden: 12
  • Warren: 9
  • Cuomo: 3
  • O’Malley: 1

A new poll by McClatchy/Marist has found that Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren’s budding presidential campaign has gained some traction over the past month but former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remains the dominant frontrunner for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination.

The poll, conducted between December 3 and December 5, sampling 466 registered Democrats, shows that Clinton has maintained her consistent lead into December, earning 65 percent of the vote. Clinton has been polling in the mid-60s since the spring and continues to solidify her place as the odds-on favorite for the nomination.

Vice President Joe Biden finished a distant second with 12 percent of the vote and has consistently been polling at 10-12 percent since the summer. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley finished way back of everyone, failing to earn 5 percent of the vote.

More importantly, Elizabeth Warren’s young presidential campaign is slowly gaining momentum as the freshman senator and former Harvard economist nears double-digits, earning 9 percent of the vote in this latest poll. A Public Policy Polling survey in October showed her at 4 percent and a CNN poll in November had her at 7 percent.

Certainly, 9 percent is hardly an accomplishment when the frontrunner has 65 percent of the vote but the trends clearly show a swell of support for a Clinton alternative that isn’t even “actively” campaigning for president. With more than two years until the first primaries, Warren certainly has plenty of time to close the gap.

Clinton has been the frontrunner before, only to lose the 2008 Democratic nomination to another freshman senator with grassroots support, one Barack Obama. In 2005, Obama was a relative unknown and barely made a dent in the polls as Hillary led John Kerry and John Edwards in the race. By 2006, Obama was still only polling around 12-17 percent. You know how that race ended.

Of course, Clinton was only polling in the mid-30s, not the dominant margin she has now. Still, many Democrats are unhappy with the seeming inevitability of a Hillary Clinton nomination and are looking to alternative candidates like Elizabeth Warren and, to a lesser extent, former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.

(Image courtesy of Edward Kimmel)

Other Candidates Inch Upward But Hillary Maintains Dominant Lead

CNN, 11/18-11/20
Democrats:

  • Clinton: 64
  • Biden: 12
  • Warren: 7
  • Cuomo: 4
  • O’Malley: 2

A new CNN poll has found that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has maintained her dominant 50+ point lead through November but the rest of the Democratic pack are slowly but surely beginning to trend upward as the campaign season gets underway.

The poll, conducted between November 18 and November 20 among registered Democratic voters, found Hillary with 64 percent of the vote nationally, right around where she has been since the spring. In October, a PPP poll had the former First Lady at 67 percent and a September Quinnipiac poll had her at 61 percent. A Rasmussen poll that didn’t include Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren had Clinton at 70 percent.

Vice President Joe Biden remained the only other Democrat in double digits with 12 percent of the vote. He has had between 10 and 12 percent in every national Democratic nomination poll since July so his support has been very steady. The last poll, earlier in November, had him at 10 percent.

Elizabeth Warren inched up from her 4 percent back in October and is up to 7 percent in this latest survey. The Massachusetts Senator is being touted by many liberals as a strong alternative to Hillary Clinton and has gained quite a bit of traction among young people on the web.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has slowly inched up to 4 percent. He was polling at 2 percent in September and October and at 3 percent earlier in November. Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley didn’t make much of a dent either, garnering just 2 percent of the vote.

If Joe Biden hopes to get any traction on Hillary, it’s going to have to be through older voters, low wage workers, suburban voters, and, surprisingly, women. Biden has 12 percent support among voters 65+ and 13 percent support among voters 50+. No other candidate outside of Hillary received double-digit support from those groups. Though he trails among workers making $50K or more, 14 percent of workers making less than that preferred Biden while no other candidate outside of Clinton earned more than 5 percent of their vote. He also receives 12 percent of the vote in the suburbs, compared with 10 percent in urban areas. Surprisingly, he leads Warren among women with 11 percent to her 7 percent (Hillary has 66 percent). Warren leads Biden 13 percent to 6 percent among self-identified liberals but Biden leads Warren 13 percent to just 3 percent among moderate Democrats.

(Photo courtesy of the Massachusetts National Guard)