The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: 2016 Florida Presidential Election

Jeb Bush is Only Candidate With a Chance Against Hillary in Florida: New Poll

Quinnipiac, 4/23-4/28
Florida

  • Clinton: 49, Bush: 41
  • Clinton: 52, Rubio: 40
  • Clinton: 52, Christie: 34
  • Clinton: 55, Paul: 37
  • Clinton: 53, Huckabee: 35
  • Clinton: 56, Ryan: 36
  • Clinton: 57, Cruz: 31

As momentum builds for a Jeb Bush candidacy, a new Quinnipiac poll has found that Bush’s homefield advantage makes him just about the only candidate who can threaten Hillary Clinton’s chances of carrying Florida in 2016.

According to the poll, conducted between April 23 and April 28, sampling 1,413 registered Florida voters, Jeb Bush is the only candidate within single-digits of Clinton, and even the former Florida Governor trails her by a big eight points. Bush has been within two points of Clinton and has trailed her by as much as 13 percent in Florida.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio doesn’t see the same homefield “advantage” as he trails Clinton by 12 percent, though that still puts him closer than the rest of the GOP pack. In the last poll we saw, back in January, Rubio trailed Clinton by a similar 10 percent.

All of the other candidates have a massive amount of work to do in Florida. Both Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie trail the former Secretary of State by 18 percent. In the January poll, Paul trailed by a similar 15 percent. Christie also trailed Clinton by a similar 16 percent in January but had been within just 4 percent of the former First Lady in November before his Bridgegate scandal. Mike Huckabee trails Clinton by 18 percent as well.

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan trails the former New York Senator by 20 percent. That’s a big fall from the 13 percent deficit he saw back in January.

Fairing the worst in Florida is Texas Senator Ted Cruz, trailing Clinton by a huge 26 percent margin. That’s not entirely unexpected as Cruz trailed the presumptive Democratic nominee by 20 percent in January.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Jeb Bush Closes in on Hillary Clinton in Florida

Quinnipiac, 1/22-1/27
Florida

  • Clinton: 49, Bush: 43
  • Clinton: 51, Rubio: 41
  • Clinton: 52, Ryan: 39
  • Clinton: 53, Paul: 38
  • Clinton: 54, Cruz: 34

With Chris Christie’s campaign floundering, the Republicans find themselves without a frontrunner and every potential candidate currently trails Hillary Clinton nationally in head-to-head polls by a big margin. One potential GOP foe that could alter the electoral landscape enough to challenge Hillary, however, is Jeb Bush, the former Governor of Florida who finds himself as the only Republican candidate who trails Clinton by less than 10 points in the Sunshine State in a new Quinnipiac poll.

The poll, conducted between January 22 and January 27, sampling 1,565 registered Florida voters, found that Hillary Clinton leads every Republican candidate by at least 6 points in the key swing state.

Jeb Bush, who served as the state’s governor from 1999 to 2007, is the only candidate within striking distance of the former Secretary of State, trailing Clinton by a margin of 49-43. Aside from seeing a solid homefield bump, Bush certainly has the political apparatus within the state to make a strong stand in Florida in both the GOP primary and the general election, a key to any successful presidential run.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio also received a slight homefield bump but still finds himself trailing the former First Lady by a margin of 51-41. While the Republicans would like to see Rubio as a candidate that brings more of the Hispanic vote to the party, Rubio trails Hillary among Florida’s Hispanic voters by a margin of 56-33.

All of the other candidates finished well behind the former New York Senator. Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan trails Hillary by a margin of 52-39. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, despite pulling within 4 percent of Clinton in a Florida poll conducted in November, now finds himself trailing by a margin of 51-35. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul trails Clinton by a margin of 53-38. Finishing worse than any other candidate was Texas Senator Ted Cruz who trails Hillary by a margin of 54-34.

One important name missing from the poll was Mike Huckabee, who has finished first in the last two Republican primary polls we’ve seen.

Since 1964, every presidential candidate who has won Florida has gone on to win the general election.

(Image courtesy of the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia)

Hillary Clinton Leads All GOP Candidates in Florida

Quinnipiac, 11/12-11/17
Florida:

  • Clinton: 47, Bush: 45
  • Clinton: 45, Christie: 41
  • Clinton: 51, Paul: 41
  • Clinton: 50, Rubio: 43
  • Clinton: 50, Ryan: 42
  • Clinton: 52, Cruz: 36

According to a new Quinnipiac poll, former Secretary of State and First Lady Hillary Clinton leads every major potential Republican candidate in the key swing state of Florida. In every hypothetical matchup, Hillary owns a solid lead and has double-digit leads against Tea Party candidates Ted Cruz and Rand Paul.

Last week, we saw that Florida politicians had a clear home field advantage in the Sunshine State with former Governor Jeb Bush and current Senator Marco Rubio leading the pack in the GOP primary race. Despite strong Republican backing, both candidates would lose Florida and its 29 electoral votes to the Democratic frontrunner.

In a matchup against Jeb Bush, Clinton would win 47-45. This is down from her advantage in early polling as Clinton had a seven-point lead in June and a double-digit lead in March. While Senator Rubio is second in Republican primary voting, the GOP support isn’t helping much as Clinton leads him in a hypothetical matchup 50-43. That number is also down, however, as Hillary owned a double-digit lead over Rubio in polls taken in March and June.

Outside of Bush, Hillary’s toughest matchup would be against New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Clinton leads Christie in Florida by a margin of 45-41, right around what we have seen in most states. Paul Ryan, who was Mitt Romney’s ticket mate in 2012, finds himself trailing Clinton 50-42.

The Tea Party candidates do not have much support in Florida. Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul combined for only 21 percent in the Republican primary poll, less than Jeb Bush’s 22 percent alone. Against Clinton, they don’t seem to stand a chance.

Rand Paul, the son of perennial presidential candidate Ron Paul, would lose to Clinton 51-41 in a hypothetical 2016 matchup. Ted Cruz had the least support among all major GOP candidates in the poll and would lose to Clinton in a landslide, 52-36.

Florida is the biggest swing state and swings often. The state went for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 but had voted for George Bush in 2004 and (controversially) in 2000. Bill Clinton won the state in 1996 but lost the Sunshine State to George H.W. Bush in 1992.

(Image courtesy of Roger H. Goun)