The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: 2016 Iowa Republican Caucus

Mike Huckabee the Clear Front Runner in Iowa GOP Caucus: New Poll

PPP, 5/15-5/19
Iowa
Huckabee: 20
Cruz: 15
Bush: 12
Paul: 10
Christie: 9
Ryan: 8
Walker: 6
Rubio: 4
Santorum: 3

After several polls showed former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee tied with Jeb Bush or within just a point of Bush and Paul Ryan, a new PPP poll has found that the Fox News host is starting to pull away.

The poll, conducted between May 15 and May 19, sampling 303 registered Iowa voters, found that Huckabee leads the Republican field with 20 percent of the vote.

This isn’t surprising, the last poll out of Iowa, conducted by Vox Populi and The Daily Caller in April, showed Huckabee with 20 percent of the vote as well. A previous Magellan poll had Huckabee at 17. What’s different is that the candidates behind him are starting to slip as voters opt for more fringe candidates.

Coming in a surprising second was Texas Senator Ted Cruz with 15 percent of the vote. This is the first time we have seen Cruz with more than 10 percent of the vote in Iowa and he had seen 9-10 percent in three of the last four polls to come out of the Hawkeye State.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, no longer enjoying that short period where everyone was talking about whether he would run, fell to third place with just 12 percent of the vote. Bush enjoyed a nice April in most polls, finishing with 17-18 percent in Iowa, but had consistently seen numbers in the low double-digits prior to that.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul finished fourth with 10 percent. Paul has now seen 8-11 percent in six straight Iowa polls so that seems to be where he stands right now.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie finished with 9 percent. Christie has now seen 7-9 percent in four of the last five polls conducted in Iowa.

Paul Ryan received 8 percent of the vote and has now seen 6-9 percent in five of the last six polls to include him.

No one else made much of a dent. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker received 6 percent, the same as the last poll we saw. Florida Senator Marco Rubio received 4 percent and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum received just 3 percent.

Jeb Bush Momentum Builds, Jumps Into First Place in New Iowa Poll

Magellan, 4/14-4/15
Iowa GOP

  • Huckabee: 17
  • Bush: 17
  • Christie: 14
  • Paul: 11
  • Cruz: 10
  • Walker: 8
  • Kasich: 5
  • Rubio: 2

Mike Huckabee has led every Iowa poll this year and has been the frontrunner for the first-in-the-nation caucus for months. That is, until now, as a new Magellan poll has found that Jeb Bush has continued to build some momentum over the past couple of weeks with extensive media attention on whether or not he will run, and is now tied with the 2008 Iowa caucus winner in the polls.

According to the poll, conducted between April 14 and 15, sampling 808 likely Iowa caucus goers, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush are tied for first place in the first 2016 caucus with 17 percent apiece.

Huckabee has now finished with 14-17 percent in four of the last five polls we’ve seen out of Iowa so his standing has largely remained the same. On the other hand, Bush, benefitting from the fact that Paul Ryan and Rick Santorum were not included in the poll, has now leapt from 10-11 percent to 17. Much of that also has to do with recent media coverage focused on whether Bush will run in 2016.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie continues to recover from his Bridgegate scandal, and also benefitted from fewer candidates included in the poll, and is right behind the frontrunners with 14 percent of the vote. Christie had finished in single-digits in Iowa in the last three polls so this is a welcome sign for the embattled Jersey guv.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul finished third with 11 percent of the vote. Paul has seen 9-10 percent of the vote in the last three polls so this is right where he has been.

Fellow Tea Partier and Texas Senator Ted Cruz finished right behind Paul with 10 percent of the vote. Like Christie, Cruz had finished with single-digits in three straight Iowa polls so this is a solid reversal.

No one else figures to make much of a dent as Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker finished with 8 percent, Ohio Governor John Kasich received 5 percent, and Marco Rubio saw just 2 percent. Sixteen percent of respondents say they remain undecided.

Largest Poll Yet Shows Mike Huckabee With Strong Lead in Iowa

Loras College, 4/7-4/8
Iowa GOP

  • Huckabee: 15
  • Bush: 11
  • Paul: 9
  • Christie: 8
  • Ryan: 8
  • Cruz: 6
  • Walker: 5
  • Santorum: 5
  • Rubio: 5
  • Perry: 3

In the last poll we saw, Rand Paul, Jeb Bush, and Ted Cruz had all inched closer to Iowa frontrunner Mike Huckabee. A new Loras College poll with the largest sample we’ve seen yet, however, has found that Huckabee remains a fairly strong first place in the Iowa Republican caucus race.

The poll, conducted between April 7 and April 8, sampling 600 likely Iowa caucus goers, found that former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee remains the odds-on favorite to win the first-in-the-nation caucus as he holds first place with 15 percent of the vote. All but one poll that we’ve seen have had Huckabee around 14-17 percent and he has placed first in every single one.

Not far behind the Fox News host is former Florida Governor Jeb Bush with 11 percent of the vote. We have seen Bush at 10-14 percent since last year so his standing in Iowa has gone mostly unchanged.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, who had been polling in double-digits in every poll we’ve seen since the beginning of last year, has dipped to 9 percent, though he’s been at 10 percent in the last two polls we have seen so he remains steady as well.

In a fourth place tie, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan received 8 percent apiece. Christie is bouncing back after his Bridgegate scandal caused his 12-16 percent to fall to around 6-7 but he is inching back up. Ryan, on the other hand, has now seen 6-9 percent in each of the last five polls we’ve seen.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz is at just 6 percent after seeing 7-9 percent in the last two polls.

The rest of the candidates don’t stand much of a chance. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum are at 5 percent each. Trailing everyone is Texas Governor Rick Perry with just 3 percent.

Mike Huckabee clearly remains the frontrunner in Iowa, and his major competition is becoming more evident, but we won’t have a real feel on Iowa until the candidate pool starts to shrink.

New Poll: 2016 Iowa GOP Race Promises to be Like 2012 On Steroids

WPA Research, 3/30
Iowa GOP

  • Huckabee: 14
  • Paul: 10
  • Walker: 8
  • Bush: 7
  • Cruz: 7
  • Ryan: 7
  • Christie: 6
  • Santorum: 5
  • Perry: 3
  • Rubio: 3
  • Jindal: 2

In 2012, fringe Republican candidates like Herman Cain, Michelle Bachmann, and Newt Gingrich seemed to alternate first place status on a weekly basis. The 2016 race may prove even more unpredictable as there are at least six candidates with a legitimate chance at winning the Iowa caucus and all have seen their share of spikes and drops already.

According to a new WPA Research poll, Mike Huckabee has maintained his first-place lead in Iowa but Kentucky Senator Rand Paul is right on his heels and four other candidates are within three points of him.

The poll, conducted on March 30, sampling 402 registered Republican primary voters, found that Mike Huckabee remains in first place with 14 percent of the vote. Huckabee has finished first in every Iowa poll that has included him but his numbers may have slipped from 17 to 14.

Right behind Huckabee is rising Republican star Rand Paul, capturing 10 percent of the vote. He too has fallen off from the mid-teens as the middle-of-the-pack candidates gain support.

Just a tick behind Paul is Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker with 8 percent. Walker has been climbing in the polls and has now received 7-8 percent in three straight Iowa surveys after seeing just 3-4 percent last year.

A mere point behind Walker are Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. All three have also lost some support as the pack has grown.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has seen an uptick in some polls but not in the first-in-the-nation caucus where he finds himself with 6 percent. Right on his heels with 5 percent is former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum who had an impressive showing in Iowa in 2012.

Trailing everyone are Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Texas Governor Rick Perry with 3 percent and Bobby Jindal with 2 percent. None of the three are expected to make much of a dent in the primary race.

Expect a lot of frontrunners to emerge as the campaign rolls along, and expect them to be replaced with new faces just as quickly each following week.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Mike Huckabee Leads Republican Pack in Iowa Caucus Race

PPP, 2/20-2/23
Iowa

  • Huckabee: 17
  • Paul: 14
  • Bush: 13
  • Cruz: 10
  • Christie: 10
  • Ryan: 9
  • Walker: 7
  • Jindal: 7

Mike Huckabee has emerged as a frontrunner in numerous Republican primary and caucus races since the beginning of the year and a new PPP poll has found that the former Arkansas Governor leads the Republican pack in Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucus race.

According to the poll, conducted between February 20 and February 23, Huckabee leads the rest of the potential GOP candidates with 17 percent of the vote. Huckabee has now received 16-17 percent of the vote in every single poll in which he’s been included and has led the Iowa race in each of one of those.

Coming in a close second is Kentucky Senator Rand Paul with 14 percent of the vote. The last Iowa poll, conducted in November by Harper Polling, also found Paul with 13 percent of the vote although that was when New Jersey Governor Chris Christie was at the height of his popularity. Christie has since fallen off due to a number of allegations and finished fourth in this poll with just 10 percent of the vote.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush finished right on Paul’s heels with 13 percent of the vote. In 2013, Bush was consistently polling at 14 percent so we have a fairly good idea where the top three stand.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who received some good news in November as he finished second with 16 percent in the Harper poll, fell back to earth and tied Christie with 10 percent of the vote.

The rest of the candidates failed to garner double-digits. Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan received 9 percent while Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker finished with 7 percent. Both also saw 9 percent and 7 percent, respectively, in the November poll.

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal got a bit of a bump, however, jumping from 2-3 percent to 7 percent in this latest poll.

Overall, Huckabee has seen a consistent 16-17 percent and has led in every poll he has been included in. Huckabee’s popularity in Iowa is hardly a surprise as he handedly won the caucus in 2008, defeating the likes of Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, John McCain, and Ron Paul. Paul’s son Rand certainly has a chance to leapfrog the Fox News host, however, as does Rick Santorum, who wasn’t included in this poll but has consistently polled in double-digits in Iowa.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Iowa GOP Trends: Christie in Trouble in Caucus Polls as Cruz Surges

 

Candidate

February

July

November

Christie

12

16

17

Cruz

10

16

Paul

15

18

13

Santorum

6

11

Ryan

10

15

9

Bush

14

14

Walker

7

Rubio

16

11

6

Jindal

3

2

3

While we await newer polls to see what kind of hit GOP frontrunner Chris Christie has taken following a scandal-mired two weeks, Christie’s biggest problem may be completely unrelated. While national polls are a good barometer of public opinion, the primary and caucus schedule is the key to a presidential nomination and thus far we’ve seen Christie struggle in Iowa (first in the nation caucus state) and New Hampshire (first in the nation primary state).

There hasn’t been a ton of polling in Iowa but we have three major polls from 2013 to find trends in voter support. Above is data from a PPP poll from February, a PPP poll from July, and a Harper poll from November.

Christie had struggled to gain any traction in Iowa until the fall when he led the Iowa caucus poll for the first time with a one-point advantage over Texas Senator Ted Cruz, well within the margin of error. He finished fourth in February and in a four-way statistical tie in July. Worse, a recent Des Moines Register poll found that Christie is the least popular GOP candidate in the race in Iowa.

While Christie may have a solid advantage in a lot of other states, this latest scandal is bound to cost him at least a couple of points, points he couldn’t afford to lose to begin with.

On the other hand, Texas Senator Ted Cruz has gained significant popularity after not even making the February poll and was essentially tied with Christie by the fall. Cruz, a Tea Party favorite, has suddenly surged past fellow Tea Partier Rand Paul who, while losing a few points, remains a strong candidate.

Rick Santorum could shake things up as well after winning the most votes in the 2012 GOP caucus against Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. He has only recently started making waves so that 11 percent in November could only be the beginning of a Santorum surge. Jeb Bush was not included on the last poll, inexplicably, but could be a significant factor after receiving 14 percent in both PPP polls.

On the other hand, Marco Rubio has seen his early support dissipate as he has fallen off more than any other candidate in the race and is now well below double-digits in most polls. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal don’t figure to make much of a dent in the race either.

It’s important to note that former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who has recently emerged as a serious presidential contender, was not included on these polls but has very high favorables in Iowa and won the caucus in 2008 when he defeated Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, John McCain, and Ron Paul.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)