The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: 2016 North Carolina Presidential Election

Uh Oh: Independents Abandon Hillary in New Poll

PPP, 5/9-5/11
North Carolina Independents

  • Clinton: 32, Paul: 46
  • Clinton: 33, Bush: 40
  • Clinton: 36, Christie: 39
  • Clinton: 39, Huckabee: 46

A new PPP North Carolina poll echoes the sentiment of many national voters toward Hillary Clinton over the past few months – run!

The poll, conducted between May 9 and May 11, sampling 877 registered North Carolina voters, found that while presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has been able to maintain her slim lead over the Republican pack, independents are abandoning her in droves.

In a hypothetical 2016 matchup against Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, Clinton now leads by just 1 percent, placing ahead of the Tea Party favorite by a margin of 45-44. In the last poll, conducted in April, Clinton led by four points.

This slight shift is the direct result of independents moving away from Clinton. In March, Clinton led Paul among independents by a margin of 48-39. In April, Paul took the lead among independents by a margin of 40-35. Now, Paul leads Clinton among independent voters by a whopping margin of 46-32. That’s a huge turnaround, especially over just a two-month span.

The same is seen against other candidates. Clinton leads former Florida Governor Jeb Bush by a 45-42 margin. Among independents, however, Clinton led Bush by a 46-38 margin in March. In April, Bush led Clinton among independents by a 45-39 margin and now leads her by a 40-35 margin.

Clinton leads New Jersey Governor Chris Christie by a 44-40 margin. Among independent voters, Clinton led Christie in March, 39-38. In April, Christie took the lead at 45-38 and currently leads among independent votes by a 39-36 margin.

Clinton also leads former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee by a 47-43 margin. Among independents, though, Huckabee leads her by a 46-39 margin and saw a 44-38 lead in April despite Clinton leading 48-34 in March.

Clearly, independents are either running toward Republican alternatives or simply running from Hillary. Perhaps the ongoing Benghazi accusations are once again hurting her standing or maybe it’s a case of Obama’s low approval numbers weighing down her candidacy.

(Image courtesy of Foreign and Commonwealth Office)

New Poll More Bad News For Hillary As Republicans Inch Closer in Another Swing State

PPP, 4/3-4/6
North Carolina

  • Clinton: 45, Bush: 44
  • Clinton: 46, Christie: 44
  • Clinton: 47, Paul: 43
  • Clinton: 48, Huckabee: 43

Barack Obama carried North Carolina in 2008 but lost the state to Mitt Romney in 2012. The Tar Heel State is as swingy a swing state as you will find and a new PPP poll shows a virtual tie between Hillary Clinton and just about every potential Republican candidate.

The poll, conducted between April 3 and April 6, sampling 740 registered North Carolina voters, found that every single Republican candidate is within five points of the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush now only trails the former Secretary of State by a point. The last poll we saw, back in March, also showed Bush trailing by just one point after Clinton had led him by 2-4 percent to start the year. Clearly, Bush is one of the stronger candidates in North Carolina.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie remains strong in the Tar Heel State as well, trailing Clinton by just two percent. He had led the former First Lady by 1-3 points until his Bridgegate scandal knocked him down in the polls. He had trailed Clinton by 3-4 percent in the last two polls we have seen since the scandal broke.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has also inched closer and now trails Clinton by just four points after the former New York Governor led the Tea Party favorite by 6 percent back in March. Last fall Paul trailed Clinton by 9 percent so he has made up some serious ground as his name recognition increases.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee trails Clinton by five points, a slight improvement from the 7 percent deficit he saw back in March.

We have noted it before but the longer this non-campaign goes, the worse it is for Clinton as “Hillary fatigue” sets in, replaced by potentially more exciting candidates.

Republicans Close In But Hillary Clinton Still Leads in North Carolina

PPP, 3/6-3/9
North Carolina

  • Clinton: 47, Bush: 46
  • Clinton: 46, Christie: 42
  • Clinton: 49, Paul: 43
  • Clinton: 49, Huckabee: 42

North Carolina voted for Barack Obama in 2008 but opted for Mitt Romney in 2012. North Carolina and its 15 electoral votes have become a key swing state and the race is currently as tight as could be expected. According to a new PPP poll, Hillary Clinton leads Jeb Bush in North Carolina by a mere one point.

The poll, conducted between March 6 and March 9, sampling 884 North Carolina voters, found that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has seen her lead dwindle and now leads former Florida Governor Jeb Bush by a margin of 47-46. The poll has a 3.3 percent margin of error so it’s entirely possible that Clinton trails at this point. In the last poll, conducted in early February, Clinton led Bush by 4 percent.

The other candidates aren’t too far behind. In a hypothetical 2016 matchup against New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, the former First Lady leads by a margin of 46-42. In the February poll, Clinton led by a similar 45-42 margin.

In a hypothetical 2016 matchup against Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, the former New York Senator leads by a margin of 49-43. Hillary appears to be inching upward after leading by a 47-44 margin in February.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is the farthest back, trailing the presumptive Democratic nominee by a margin of 49-42. In February, Huckabee trailed by five points.

Although the race is tight, it’s interesting that Clinton leads all challengers given that 48 percent of respondents voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 and just 47 percent voted for Obama. Many Romney voters aren’t swayed by the current GOP pack. Just 86 percent of Romney voters say they would vote for Bush, 81 percent say they would vote for Huckabee, 82 percent say they would vote for Paul, and a mere 76 percent would vote for Christie.

On the other hand, more than 90 percent of Obama voters say they will vote for Clinton in 2016.

(Image courtesy of Remy Steinegger, World Economic Forum)

Paul, Bush, Huckabee Gain on Hillary in North Carolina

PPP, 2/6-2/9
North Carolina

  • Clinton: 47, Paul: 44
  • Clinton: 45, Christie: 42
  • Clinton: 47, Bush: 43
  • Clinton: 48, Huckabee: 42

While Hillary Clinton has a significant lead over any potential Republican nominee in national polling, we know that elections ultimately come down to swing states. We’ve already seen that Hillary Clinton is in serious trouble in Colorado, a state that Barack Obama carried in both of his election wins. Now, a new PPP poll has found that Hillary Clinton has just a small lead over the top GOP contenders in North Carolina.

The poll, conducted between February 6 and February 9, sampling 708 registered voters, found that Clinton’s lead over any of the top Republican candidates is well within the margin of error.

After leading Clinton in three straight North Carolina polls, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has fallen off somewhat but is still within 3 percent of the former Secretary of State. While Christie’s numbers have fallen off significantly around the country, Christie is still within striking distance of Hillary, trailing by a margin of 45-42.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul is also within three points of the former First Lady, trailing Clinton by a margin of 47-44. Paul had trailed Hillary by as much as 9-12 percent in North Carolina when polling began but has now been within 4 percent of Clinton in three straight polls.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has been within striking distance since polling began and finds himself trailing the former New York Senator by 4 percent. Trailing Clinton by a margin of 47-43, Bush has now been within 4 percent of Hillary in every North Carolina poll thus far.

Mike Huckabee hadn’t been included in any North Carolina polls until now but the rising GOP contender is also within reach, trailing Clinton by a margin of 48-43.

Although Barack Obama was able to eke out a win in North Carolina in 2008, Mitt Romney won the state in 2012. The current Republican pack clearly doesn’t appeal to voters as much as only Jeb Bush would get 85 percent of voters who voted for Romney in 2012. Mike Huckabee would get 84 percent of Romney voters, Rand Paul would get 82 percent of Romney voters, and Chris Christie would get just 78 percent of Romney voters.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

2016 Poll: Hillary Clinton Losing Ground in North Carolina

PPP, 1/9-1/12
North Carolina

  • Clinton 47, Paul 43
  • Clinton 46, Bush 44
  • Clinton 47, Cruz 41

In November, it looked as though Hillary Clinton had a lock on the crucial swing state of North Carolina as she led everyone but Chris Christie by a sizable margin. A new PPP poll, however, shows that the GOP pack is gaining on Clinton and the former Secretary of State’s lead over most candidates now falls within the margin of error.

The poll, conducted between January 9 and January 12, sampling 1,384 registered voters, found that still Clinton leads Rand Paul, Jeb Bush, and Ted Cruz in North Carolina but by no more than six points, a big turnaround from what we saw in November.

In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup against Rand Paul, Clinton leads by a margin of 47-43. In November, Clinton led by 9 percent and last spring she was up by 12 percent. Among very conservative voters, Paul leads 91-6 but among very liberal voters, Hillary leads 79-13 and 76-14 among somewhat liberal voters. She has a big 60-25 lead among moderates, though, and also has 26 percent support among somewhat conservative voters.

Against Jeb Bush, Hillary leads by a 46-44 margin as Bush inches closer after finishing 4 percent back in November. Bush leads Hillary among very conservative voters 85-6 and among somewhat conservative voters 68-22. Among very liberal voters, Hillary has a 81-16 lead, along with a 79-16 lead among somewhat liberal voters, and 58-25 among moderates.

Hillary performed best against Texas Senator Ted Cruz, leading by a 47-41 margin. That’s still down from her 8 percent lead in December and 12 point lead in November. Hillary leads Cruz 81-9 among very liberal voters, 75-14 among somewhat liberal voters, and 61-23 among moderates. Cruz has a 86-6 advantage among very conservative voters and 63-26 among somewhat conservative voters.

The poll also has Christie and Clinton in a dead heat but you can take those numbers with a grain of salt since the poll was conducted before all of Christie’s post-Bridgegate scandals came out. We’ll have to wait for updated numbers to see how Christie is faring now.

Clearly, very conservative voters have no interest in Hillary but liberals are not entirely averse to voting for a Republican, even a Tea Partier.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)