The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: 2016 Ohio Presidential Election

Cracks Begin to Show: Hillary’s Poll Numbers Slipping in Swing States

Quinnipiac, 5/7-5/12

  • Clinton: 47, Rubio: 40
  • Clinton: 48, Ryan: 41
  • Clinton: 46, Christie: 38
  • Clinton: 49, Paul: 41
  • Clinton: 49, Huckabee: 41
  • Clinton: 48, Bush: 39
  • Clinton: 51, Cruz: 37

Earlier this week, we looked at Hillary Clinton’s slipping poll numbers in North Carolina as independents have abandoned the candidate in droves. Now, a new Quinnipiac poll has found the Clinton’s lead over Republican candidates is slipping in Ohio as well.

According to the poll, conducted between May 7 and May 12, surveying 1,174 registered Ohio voters, Clinton has kept a lead over every potential Republican candidate but they are considerably slimmer leads than we saw in February and last November.

Clinton leads Kentucky Senator Rand Paul by a margin of 49-41, a significant decrease from her 51-38 lead just a few months ago in February. On its own it wouldn’t be much of a trend but when coupled with Hillary’s slipping numbers in other swing states, the trend becomes more significant, especially when it’s the same among the other candidates.

Clinton leads New Jersey Governor Chris Christie by a margin of 46-38 after leading him by a stronger 49-36 margin in February.

Against Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Clinton has maintained her lead but now leads by a margin of 47-40 after leading him 50-36 in February.

Against former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Clinton leads by a margin of 48-39 after leading by a 51-36 margin in February.

Against Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Clinton leads by a margin of 51-37 after leading by a 51-34 margin in February.

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan hasn’t gotten much of a boost, however, as he trails Clinton by a margin of 48 to 41 after trailing by a 49-40 margin in February.

As with many of this year’s Senate races, President Obama’s low approval numbers in Iowa appear to have a slight impact on Hillary’s numbers as well. Just 34 percent of independent voters say they approve of the way Obama has handled his job as president while 63 percent say they disapprove. That’s the highest disapproval rating Obama has seen in Ohio.

(Image courtesy of Marc Nozell)

Hillary Clinton Takes Big Lead in Another Key Swing State

Quinnipiac, 2/12-2/17

  • Clinton: 49, Ryan: 40
  • Clinton: 51, Paul: 38
  • Clinton: 49, Christie: 36
  • Clinton: 50, Rubio: 36
  • Clinton: 51, Bush: 36
  • Clinton: 51, Cruz: 34

No president has won an election without carrying the key swing state of Ohio since Franklin Delano Roosevelt did it in 1944. That’s why a new Quinnipiac poll that shows Hillary Clinton with a big lead in the Buckeye State over every potential Republican candidate is that much more important than most others.

The poll, conducted between February 12 and February 17, sampling 1,370 registered voters, found that Hillary has a commanding lead over any potential candidate the GOP may nominate. The closest candidate to Clinton is Paul Ryan, a congressman from neighboring Wisconsin, who trails the former Secretary of State by a 49-40 margin.

Every other candidate finds themselves with a double-digit deficit. If Ohio Governor John Kasich ran for president, which is not likely at this point in time, even he would trail Clinton by 12 points, despite the homefield advantage.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie both trail the former New York Senator by 13 points. Clinton leads Paul by a margin of 51-38 while pulling ahead of Christie by a margin of 49-36. In the last Quinnipiac poll, conducted back in November, Christie trailed Clinton by just one point while Paul has trailed Clinton in Ohio by double-digits since the summer.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio trails the former First Lady by a margin of 50-36. In November, it appeared that Rubio could be closing in on Hillary as he inched closer to a 9 point deficit. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush didn’t do any better, trailing Clinton by a margin of 51-36. He has trailed by at least 13 percent since polling began.

Lagging behind everyone was Texas Senator Ted Cruz, finishing 17 percent behind Hillary. In November, he trailed the presumptive Democratic nominee by a similar 15 percent.

(Image courtesy of US Embassy New Zealand)