The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: 2016 Presidential Election

Clinton Edges out Republican Challengers in PPP Poll

Public Policy Polling, 30/9 Clinton vs. Republican Candidates

  • Clinton – 43%
  • Bush – 43%
  • Clinton – 45%
  • Christie – 41%
  • Clinton – 47%
  • Cruz – 39%
  • Clinton – 46%
  • Huckabee – 42%
  • Clinton – 47%
  • Paul – 42%

Public Policy Polling issued a poll at the end of September that collected data on potential elections involving the favored Democrat nomination, Hillary Clinton and the various Republican challengers that she could face in a presidential election. The results revealed that she would defeat almost every single candidate and that she would tie Jeb Bush. In an election against Jeb Bush, Clinton would tie him with 43 percent of the vote. If she were to face Chris Christie, she would achieve 45 percent of the vote, while he would only secure 41 percent. Clinton would tally 46 percent of the votes against Mike Huckabee and his 42 percent. Rand Paul would receive 42 percent of the votes to Clinton’s 47 percent. Ted Cruz would secure the least votes of all. Only 39 percent of voters would vote for him, the other 47 percent would choose Clinton.

In addition, 39 percent of the participants in this poll identified as conservative, 29 percent as liberal, and 33 percent as moderate. The party split was nearly even. 35 percent of the voters claimed to be Democrat, 36 percent Republican, and 29 percent independent. These numbers are interesting as the results in the poll favor the Democrats. Are Republicans upset with the direction of the party? Are voters beginning to see how outdated the party is? These are important questions to ask.

Clinton has enjoyed strong leads over most of her Republican challengers throughout many of the polls. Still, none of these numbers matter until we know which candidates are nominated to represent each of the parties. Stay tuned for future updates as the elections approach.

Photo credit: CBS News.

Hillary Clinton’s Lead Continues to Dwindle as Elections Approach

McClatchy-Marist Poll, 8/4-8/4

General Election Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 47% – Chris Christie 41% – undecided 12%
  • Hillary Clinton 48% – Jeb Bush 41% – undecided 10%
  • Hillary Clinton 48% – Rand Paul 42% – undecided 10%

The most recent McClatchy-Marist Poll measured the results of a general election if it were to occur today. The results favored a Hillary Clinton victory with a spread of +6. Her most capable opponent would be Rand Paul with 42% of the vote while Jeb Bush and Chris Christie secured only 41%. The margin of error was measured at 3%.

Statistically, 28% of voters were Democrat, 25% Republican, 45% independent, and 2% other. Of those voters, 17% identified as strong Democrats, 11% as moderate Democrats, 14% as independents that leaned towards the Democrats, 12% as pure independents, 18% as independents that leaned towards the Republicans, 10% as moderate Republicans, and 15% as strong Republicans.

The overall political ideology of the poll leaned towards the conservative side. 41% of voters admitted that they were conservative, 36% moderate, and only 22% as liberal. The gender gap was nearly even, 48% of voters were men and 52% were women.

Clinton has enjoyed a sizeable lead for a long period of time, but as elections come closer and the Republicans move towards officially selecting their candidate, her lead will likely continue to drop as her opponent will be clear. Rand Paul seems like the safe choice for the Republicans if they want to score a victory over Clinton, but there are still too many unknown factors to say whether or not he could win in an election.

There is also a potential chance that Clinton could lose the nomination if candidates like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren were to run. If she manages to win the Democrat’s nomination, she should be able to secure her position as the next president so long as she engages in a safe campaign that avoids antagonizing large populations of voters.

Photo credit: blogs.reuters.com

Fewer Voters Support Conservative Economic, Social Positions: New Poll

In an age of name recognition and party affiliation, issues have become almost irrelevant. We spend so much time looking at polls on which candidate voters prefer and almost no time focusing on what issues are most important to voters and where they stand.

A new Gallup poll, however, has found that conservatives who have won many an election campaigning against social issues like abortion and gay marriage are losing their edge which could be bad news for the Republicans’ 2016 hopes.

The poll, looking at how people identify with conservatives on economic and social issues, found that conservatives remain in the lead among voters but that lead has plummeted since 2010 when the Republicans won back Congress.

According to the poll, conservatives owned a 36 percent advantage over liberals on economic issues in 2010. Today, they own a 21 percent advantage over liberals on economic issues. That number has consistently fallen from 36 to 28 percent in 2011, 26 percent in 2012, and 22 percent last year.

On the social side of things is where conservatives are in the most trouble. In 2010 when the GOP ran one of its strongest mid-term elections in history, conservatives owned a 17 percent advantage over liberals on social issues. Today, that number has fallen to just 4 percent. Between 2001 and 2006, that number never fell below 10 percent.

As the poll points outs, “conservatism is still the dominant ideology in the US when Americans are asked to describe their political views… However, the conservative advantages are shrinking.”

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

“It is possible that in the next few years, there will be more Americans describing themselves as social liberal than as socially conservative. This movement is consistent with trends Gallup has seen on specific issues, perhaps most notable Americans’ views toward gay rights and legalizing marijuana,” the report states.

Fox News Poll: Hillary Clinton Takes Massive Lead in General Election

Fox News, 3/2-3/4

  • Clinton: 49, Christie: 38
  • Clinton: 51, Bush: 38
  • Clinton: 52, Cruz: 36

Since Chris Christie’s campaign took a downturn before it even began, Hillary Clinton has taken double-digit leads over just about every Republican in national polling. A new Fox News poll has found that Hillary leads every Republican by at least 11 percent in national head-to-head matchups.

The poll, conducted between March 2 and March 4, sampling 1,002 registered voters, found that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads New Jersey Governor Chris Christie by a margin of 49-38 in a hypothetical 2016 general election matchup.

This news comes just three months after Christie took a slight lead over Clinton in national polling. Since the beginning of the Bridgegate scandal, Christie has fallen off and has now trailed Hillary by double-digits in four straight polls, going back to January.

The other candidates fare even worse. Texas Senator Ted Cruz trails the former First Lady by a margin of 52-36. The Tea Party favorite has now finished 15-18 points behind Clinton in four of the last five polls we’ve seen.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush trails the former New York Senator by a margin of 47-33. A Rasmussen poll has also found that Bush trails Hillary by about 14 points. This is actually something of an improvement as Bush trailed Clinton by 20 points in a CNN poll and a McClatchy/Marist poll conducted just over a month ago.

What’s interesting is that poll respondents heavily prefer Hillary despite not having a very favorable view of Barack Obama. Just 38 percent of respondents said they approve of the job Obama is doing as president while 54 percent disapprove.

It’s also interesting that Clinton has a significant amount of support from conservatives and Tea Partiers. Against Chris Christie, 32 percent of self-identified conservatives and 23 percent of Tea Party voters would vote for Hillary. A similar 32 percent of conservatives and 23 percent of Tea Party voters would vote for Clinton if the Republican nominee was Jeb Bush. Even if the nominee were Tea Party favorite Ted Cruz, Hillary would get 33 percent of the conservative vote and 27 percent of the Tea Party vote.

(Image courtesy of Chatham House, London)

Polls Show Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton in Dead Heat

Quinnipiac 11/6-11/11

  • Christie: 43, Clinton: 42

Rasmussen 11/7-11/8

  • Christie: 41, Clinton: 43

Two new polls released during the past week show a very evenly matched contest brewing between likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and potential Republican nominee Chris Christie for the 2016 presidential election. While the latest Quinnipiac poll has Christie up by a point and the latest Rasmussen poll has Clinton up by two points, both fall within the margin of error, indicating a potential dead heat between the two heavyweights.

The Quinnipiac poll, conducted between November 6 and November 11, is the largest sample poll released for this hypothetical matchup yet. Of a sample of 2,545 registered voters, 43 percent said they would vote for Christie while 42 percent said they prefer Clinton. By contrast, voters went for Hillary over Kentucky Senator Rand Paul 49-40, over Texas Senator Ted Cruz 51-36, and over Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan 49-40. Not only does this show how close a Christie-Clinton race would be but also how far behind the other potential candidates are in a hypothetical general election scenario.

The Rasmussen poll, conducted between November 7 and November 8, sampled 1,000 likely voters and found Clinton leading by a 43-41 margin. Among unaffiliated independent voters, Christie led 42 percent to 33 percent, a sign that the moderate Republican could reach voters that conservative Republican candidates have long abandoned.

This is a major change in the trends since the last Quinnipiac poll, released at the end of September, had Hillary leading Christie 49-36. It looks like his gubernatorial re-election and media hype that followed has given Christie a solid bump. Most polls released between February and September consistently had Hillary leading by a margin of 3 to 6 percent.

Before any potential matchup with Hillary, however, Christie would have to overcome a lack of support from conservatives. A recent NBC poll found that while 57 percent of Northeast Republicans supported Christie for the nomination (only 22 percent said they would oppose it), the rest of the country’s Republicans did not agree. In the Midwest, 35 percent of Republicans supported Christie, 29 percent in the South, and 40 percent in the West.

A poll by Quinnipiac confirmed conservative objections to Christie’s candidacy with only 33 percent of conservatives saying they had a favorable opinion of Christie. Among “very conservative respondents” PPP found that Christie had just 3 percent support, behind the likes of Paul, Cruz, Marco Rubio, and even Sarah Palin.

(Image courtesy of US Embassy Kabul Afghanistan)