The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: 2016 Republican Primary

New CNN Poll Shows 3-Way Tie in Republican Primary

CNN, 5/2-5/4

  • Paul: 13
  • Bush: 13
  • Ryan: 12
  • Huckabee: 10
  • Christie: 9
  • Perry: 8
  • Cruz: 7
  • Walker: 7
  • Rubio: 6
  • Santorum: 2

After Mike Huckabee led almost every poll he has been included in this year, Rand Paul and Jeb Bush have leapfrogged the Fox News host and Paul Ryan is right on their heels in a new CNN poll.

The poll, conducted between May 2 and May 4, sampling 473 people, found that Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush are in a tie for first place with 13 percent while Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan is in a virtual tie with the duo at 12 percent.

Paul has now seen 12-15 percent in seven of the last eight national polls we have seen so that seems to be where he stands at the moment.

Bush has been all the talk lately and has seen a nice bump from single-digits to 11-14 percent in the last six polls we have seen.

Ryan, on the other hand, was polling at 5-9 percent in February and March but has now seen exactly 12 percent in four of the last five polls we have seen so this is a strong turnaround.

Meanwhile, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee underperformed in this poll, finishing fourth with just 10 percent. Huckabee had seen at least 13 percent and as much as 18 percent in eight of the last nine polls that have included him.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie remains in the middle of the pack, finishing with 9 percent in the second straight national poll we have seen.

The rest of the candidates remain longshots. Texas Governor Rick Perry received 8 percent but he seems to only do well in these CNN polls for some reason. He has not gotten more than 5 percent in any other poll this year and many don’t even bother to include him.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker garnered 7 percent, the highest we have seen him poll at. He had received exactly 5 percent in the last six polls that have included him.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz is tied with Walker at 7 percent and has now received exactly 7 points in three straight polls.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio lags behind them with 6 percent and has gotten 6 percent of the vote in four of the last six polls we have seen.

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum trails everyone with 2 percent of the vote and has not seen more than 3 percent in most polls.

The polls are starting to get a bit more consistent so we are getting a better idea of where every candidate stands prior to the spring and summer congressional primaries.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Four-Way Tie For First in Latest Republican Primary Poll

PPP, 3/6-3/9
Huckabee: 18
Bush: 15
Paul: 14
Christie: 14
Cruz: 11
Rubio: 6
Walker: 5
Ryan: 5

The Republican race has at least eight candidates, depending on which poll you prefer, but it appears that the top challengers are separating from the longshot candidates in the last PPP poll.

The poll, conducted between March 6 and March 9, sampling 542 registered voters, found that former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has a slight edge over the Republican pack nationally with 18 percent of the vote. Since the poll has a margin of error of 4.2 percent, the race is a virtual tie among the top four finishers and far too close to call Mike Huckabee the frontrunner outright.

Coming in a close second is former Florida Governor Jeb Bush with 15 percent of the vote. Bush’s poll numbers, unlike most of the candidates, fluctuate significantly from poll to poll as he has seen as much as 18 percent and as little as 8 percent support since 2014 began.

Just a point behind Bush and just four points behind Huckabee are New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul with 14 percent. Paul is coming off of a big win after placing first in the Conservative Political Action Committee Straw Poll while Christie’s numbers appear to have leveled out in the low-double digits after his Bridgegate scandal. Christie has now finished with 12-14 percent in six straight national polls. Meanwhile, Paul has seen a jump from 11 percent in December and January to 14 percent in two of the last three national polls.

Even Texas Senator Ted Cruz, placing fifth in this poll, is still very relevant with 11 percent of the vote. Of course, that’s the second-highest percentage he’s seen nationally since December and 8-11 percent appears to be his current range.

The other candidates, however, don’t look like they have much of a chance. After running off several double-digit finishes, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan has come back down to earth, earning just 5 percent of the vote. He has now seen single-digit support in four straight polls with this being his lowest point. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker also received 5 percent but that’s been the norm for him since the fall.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio finished with 6 percent and also seems to have plateaued at 6-10 percent.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Christie Support Slides as GOP Pack Split National Vote

Quinnipiac, 12/3-12/9

  • Christie: 17
  • Paul: 14
  • Cruz: 13
  • Bush: 11
  • Ryan: 9
  • Rubio: 7
  • Walker: 5
  • Kasich: 2

A new Quinnipiac poll has found that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie remains the leader in the 2016 Republican nomination race but his total support has dissipated as the number of potential Republican candidates continues to grow. Last week, we cited a McClatchy poll that saw Christie slide to 18 percent support as candidates like Sarah Palin and Rick Santorum drew small but significant amounts of the vote. This poll didn’t include candidates like Palin, Santorum, or Texas Governor Rick Perry but saw Christie slide to 17 percent of the vote.

Despite seeing his numbers slip to 17 percent, Christie remains the slight frontrunner in the Republican race, finishing 3 percent higher than Kentucky Senator Rand Paul who finished with 14 percent. In the last Quinnipiac national Republican poll taken in early October, Paul led the pack with 17 percent of the vote but all polls since have shown Christie in the lead nationally.

While Paul also slipped a bit, fellow Tea Partier and Texas Senator Ted Cruz finished third with 13 percent of the vote, a solid increase from his 10 percent back in October. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush was the only other candidate to finish with double-digit support, earning 11 percent of the vote. Bush has consistently polled at 10-11 percent since polling began.

The rest of the Republican pack didn’t perform as impressively but certainly combined to draw a significant percentage of the vote. Wisconsin Congressman and former Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan earned 9 percent of the vote, down from 10 percent in October and 17 percent in the spring. Florida Senator Marco Rubio earned 7 percent of the vote, down from 12 percent in October and 19 percent in the spring. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, however, has continued to inch forward as he finished with 5 percent of the vote, up from 4 percent in October and just 2 percent in the spring.

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and Ohio Governor John Kasich earned 3 percent and 2 percent, respectively, and neither appears a serious threat for the nomination. Kasich has not even appeared in most polls.

There are still many minds to be made up, and changed. Seventeen percent of those polled said they are still undecided.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Christie’s Lead Slips as GOP Pack Grows

McClatchy/Marist, 12/3-12/5
GOP Primary:

  • Christie: 18
  • Paul: 12
  • Ryan: 11
  • Cruz: 10
  • Bush: 10
  • Palin: 8
  • Rubio: 7
  • Walker: 4
  • Santorum: 4
  • Perry: 3

A new poll from McClatchy/Marist has found that Chris Christie has maintained a solid 6 percent lead over any other Republican candidate but his support has slipped below 20 percent as the GOP finds itself hugely split on the direction of the party. Aside from Christie, four other candidates received double-digit support.

The poll, conducted between December 3 and December 5, sampling 419 registered Republican voters, found that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie remains the frontrunner in the 2016 GOP primary race with 18 percent of the vote. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul finished second in the poll with 12 percent of the vote. In November, a CNN poll showed that Christie had exploded to a 9 percent lead with 24 percent of the vote to Paul’s 15 but the growing field of potential GOP candidates has watered down the vote significantly.

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, fresh off of a win as he helped hammer through a bipartisan budget deal to roll back some of the sequestration cuts, placed third in the poll with 11 percent of the vote. Ryan’s 11 percent has been very consistent and didn’t get watered down by the growing field. He has been polling at 10-11 percent in every poll since September.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush both garnered 10 percent of the vote. Cruz has seen his support slip amid the growing selection of candidates, falling from as much as 20 percent support in September. Bush has polled at 10-12 percent consistently since the summer.

Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin placed fifth in the poll with 8 percent of the vote while Florida Senator Marco Rubio received 7 percent, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum each received 4 percent, and Texas Governor Rick Perry trails everyone with 3 percent.

Christie remains the frontrunner and, as a Republican governor in a blue state, he has proven to be a viable candidate. The poll found that this is not especially important to the Republican base, however, as 67 percent of respondents said they would vote for a candidate based on their conservative principles while just 31 percent said they would vote for someone who can win.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Paul, Bush, Rubio All Drop in National Polls as Christie Strengthens Lead

CNN, 11/18-11/20

  • Christie: 24
  • Paul: 15
  • Cruz: 11
  • Ryan: 11
  • Rubio: 10
  • Bush: 5

A new CNN poll shows that Chris Christie has taken a strong 9 percent lead in the national Republican presidential nomination race while the growing field of potential GOP alternatives continues to water down each others’ support.

In a national poll conducted between November 18 and November 20, 24 percent of registered Republican voters said they would vote for New Jersey Governor Chris Christie in the 2016 GOP primary, a 2 percent bump from the last poll taken earlier in November. In October, Christie was polling at just 16 percent nationally and in September he was at around 13 percent. The GOP frontrunner continues to gain momentum while the other candidates have failed to grow their support base.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, who had been tied with Christie or even leading in most of the early polls, came in second with just 15 percent of the vote. Earlier in November, a Rasmussen poll showed Paul down just 22-20 to Christie. In October, the two were in a 16-16 tie and in September Paul led Christie 17-13.

Fellow Tea Partier and Texas Senator Ted Cruz finished in a third place tie with Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan with 11 percent. This is right around where both have been polling over the last few national polls.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio dropped off significantly, garnering just 10 percent of the vote after seeing his support swell to 16 percent in a poll taken earlier in November. Fellow Floridian and former governor of the Sunshine State Jeb Bush also fell off significantly, dropping from 11-14 points in recent polls to just 5 percent.

Not only is Christie enjoying the largest lead he’s seen, he’s getting more conservative support. Among self-identified conservatives, 18 percent said they would vote for Christie, compared to 13 percent for Ted Cruz and Rand Paul and 11 percent for Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio. Among all of the various demographics surveyed, Christie leads in just about every one of them. The Jersey governor is the preeminent choice among men, women, all age groups, people earning $50K+, and both college graduates and people who never attended college.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Women Voters Reject Tea Party Candidates Paul, Cruz

Quinnipiac, 11/12-11/17

Florida, Republican Women:

  • Bush: 23
  • Rubio: 20
  • Christie: 17
  • Cruz: 9
  • Paul: 5
  • Ryan: 6

While Republicans worry how a potential Hillary Clinton candidacy would swing women voters in a 2016 general election, Tea Party candidates are strongly lacking in female support in their own male-only primary race. In a recent Florida poll that mirrors results around the country, not a single Tea Party candidate received more than 9 percent support from female respondents. Around the US, Tea Partiers strongly lag behind moderate candidates like Chris Christie and Jeb Bush.

Among registered female Florida Republican voters, 23 percent prefer former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, 20 percent prefer Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and 17 percent prefer New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Meanwhile, Texas Senator Ted Cruz received just 9 percent of the female vote and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul received just 5 percent.

Similar results can be seen nationally. In Colorado, 46 percent of women respondents said that Chris Christie would make a good president while just 32 percent said the same of Rand Paul and 25 percent said Ted Cruz would make a good president.

In another crucial swing state in North Carolina, 42 percent of female voters said they would vote for Chris Christie in a hypothetical matchup against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Meanwhile, just 38 percent said they would back Rand Paul against Hillary and just 34 percent said they would vote for Ted Cruz over Hillary.

In a national Quinnipiac poll, 39 percent of women voters said they would vote for Christie over Hillary. On the other hand, just 34 percent of women said they would vote for Paul over Hillary and a mere 31 percent said they would vote for Ted Cruz over Hillary.

In 2012, President Barack Obama earned 55 percent of the female vote and women represented the majority of all voters. Clearly, women are already shying away from Tea Partiers Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, both of whom have staunch anti-choice stances and voted against the reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act in February. Certainly any Republican would be at a disadvantage against any Democrat with women, much less Hillary Clinton. There is clearly a lot less female push back against Chris Christie than against Paul or Cruz, however.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)