Tag Archives: 2016 Swing States
When we talk about swing states in the presidential race, there are eight in particular that we talk about. These are the states that have been carried by the narrowest of margins, have voted for both parties over the last two decades, and are expected to be battleground states once again in 2016. On the other hand, we already know which ways New York and Texas, along with the other 39 states, will swing.
With this in mind, let’s take a look at President Obama’s approval rating in each of those states and what that can mean for Hillary Clinton’s chances in the all-important battleground states in 2016.
Florida: Obama’s job approval in Florida depends on who you ask. According to an April Rasmussen poll, 51 percent of Floridians approve and 46 disapprove. Of course, a Quinnipiac poll conducted at the same time shows Obama with a 46 approve, 51 disapprove. Hillary, however, remains very popular in Florida among the elderly, female, and Hispanic voters. In the last poll we’ve seen, Clinton leads every GOP candidate by double-digits in Florida, except Jeb Bush who trails Clinton by 8 percent.
Ohio: We haven’t seen any numbers out of Ohio since a February Quinnipiac poll that pegged the Prez at 40 approve, 55 disapprove. That same poll also showed Clinton leading every Republican by at least 9 percent so despite a massive disapproval of the president, Ohio still seems to be on good terms with the former Secretary of State.
North Carolina: In April, a PPP poll had Obama at 44 approve, 52 disapprove and a New York Times poll had him at a similar 41 approve, 49 disapprove. Unlike Ohio, however, Clinton’s lead over the GOP pack in North Carolina is slim. She leads Jeb Bush by just one point, Christie by four, Rand Paul by six, and Mike Huckabee by seven. This one could definitely go Republican depending on how things pan out.
Virginia: In March, Quinnipiac had Obama at 44 approve, 52 disapprove. Though not a huge gap, Clinton’s edge over the GOP in Virginia is slim. She leads Christie by four, Bush by eight, Huckabee by eight, and Paul by six. Like North Carolina, Virginia could certainly turn red in 2016.
New Hampshire: In March, a Rasmussen poll had Obama at a decent 48 approve, 52 disapprove. Obama is doing better than he is in most places here and so is the former First Lady. Clinton leads every candidate by at least 11 points.
Iowa: In April, a Suffolk poll had it at 40 approve, 50 disapprove while a March Rasmussen poll had it at 44 approve, 54 disapprove. This has not affected Hillary whatsoever, as she leads every candidate by at least 10 percent.
Wisconsin: As of April, a PPP poll showed Obama with a 45 approve, 50 disapprove in Wisconsin. Clinton could have trouble in Wisconsin if the nominees are Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker or Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan (though she still leads them) but leads all other GOP candidates by at least 10 percent.
Colorado: In March, a Rasmussen poll showed Obama with a solid 49 approve, 50 disapprove. Ironically, it’s here that Clinton could see some of her stiffer competition as she is tied with Chris Christie, leads Huckabee by just 1 percent, and Rand Paul and Jeb Bush by just five percent.
As we can see, Obama’s lack of approval isn’t hampering Hillary’s standing in those states as voters seem to have a separate opinion of her than Obama, for better or worse. We can see that Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina have a good chance to go Republican. If Bush gets nominated, he could win Florida and Ryan or Walker could win Wisconsin. On the other hand, Clinton has commanding leads in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Ohio.