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Tag Archives: Alison Grimes

Shock Poll: Democrat Alison Grimes Takes Lead Over Republican Mitch McConnell in Kentucky

Courier Journal/Survey USA, 9/29-10/2
Kentucky Senate

  • Grimes (D): 46
  • McConnell (R): 44
  • Patterson (L): 3

Nearly every poll since June has had Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell leading his race against Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes but a new Courier-Journal/Survey USA poll has the incumbent down by two.

The poll, conducted between September 29 and October 2, sampling 632 likely voters, found that Grimes now leads McConnell by a margin of 46-44. Libertarian candidate David Patterson is polling at 3 percent while 7 percent of respondents remain undecided.

The last Courier-Journal poll, released in late August, had McConnell up by 4 percent.

“Today, McConnell suddenly and unexpectedly looks wobbly,” said Survey USA in a press release.

University of Kentucky professor Stephen Voss isn’t buying it, however.

“I would take these results with a grain of salt, given that they deviate from everything we’ve seen recently,” Voss told The Courier-Journal. “I don’t buy the absolute totals. I think she’s still behind.”

That doesn’t mean she’s not making headway in the race, though.

The Journal reports, “The deeper numbers in the survey do show Grimes’ ads – one showing her trap-shooting and another featuring former President Bill Clinton – are helping her gain ground with conservative democrats.”

On the flip side, the peripheral numbers don’t look great for McConnell. He may lead most polls but 57 percent of voters say it’s time for him to be replaced as Kentucky’s Senator.

2014 Senate Polls Update: Michigan, North Carolina, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky

Arkansas: USA Today

  • Pryor (D): 45
  • Cotton (R): 43

Georgia: SurveyUSA

  • Perdue (R): 46
  • Nunn (D): 45

Kentucky: Reuters

  • McConnell (R): 46
  • Grimes (D): 42

Michigan: Rasmussen

  • Peters (D): 41
  • Land (R): 39

Alaska: PPP

  • Sullivan (R): 45
  • Begich (D): 42

North Carolina: PPP

  • Hagan (D): 46
  • Tillis (R): 42

This is the peak of the campaign season and voters all over the nation are increasingly tortured by copious amounts of campaign ads on television, radio, and front lawns. There’s been quite a bit of movement in the polls lately, so clearly these are having some effect. Let’s take a look at the latest numbers from some of the most competitive races in the Senate.

In Georgia, where Republican David Perdue had led Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn by as many as 9-10 points, a new Survey USA poll has Perdue up by just 1 percent. In August, Survey USA had him up by 9 and in early September he was up by just 3 so this could be a trend. A recent WSB-TV/Landmark poll even had Nunn up by a few points. This one is not over by a longshot.

In Kentucky, Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes has now finished within 4-5 percent of Republican incumbent Senator and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in six of the last seven polls. The Democrats are looking to spend a ton of money to try to unseat McConnell so Grimes is definitely still in the race.

In Michigan, where Democrat Gary Peters had been leading Republican Terri Lynn Land by as much a 9-10 percent, Peters has now led Land by just 2-3 percent in three of the last four polls. Looks like Land is building some momentum heading into October.

In Alaska, we can officially say Mark Begich is in trouble. Not only has he trailed Republican challenger Dan Sullivan in every poll since July, Nate Silver points out that Alaska tends to overpoll Democrats in Alaska by an average of 7-8 percent. That means that while Begich is down 3-6 percent, he may actually be down as much as 10 or more.

In North Carolina, where Republican Thom Tillis has led a handful of polls in July and early August, incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan has now led seven straight polls and RealClearPolitics reports she leads Tillis by an average of 5 percent.

In Arkansas, where Republican challenger Tom Cotton had led four straight polls, a new USA Today poll has incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor up by 2. Arkansas is hard to judge but considering Cotton has led 10 of the last 12 polls, he looks to have the edge.

All in all, Perdue, McConnell, Cotton, and Sullivan are all Republicans likely to win their races while Hagan and Peters are Democrats likely to win theirs.

2014 Senate Polls Update: Republicans Roll in Kentucky, Iowa, Kansas

PPP, 8/7-8/10
Kentucky Senate

  • McConnell (R): 47
  • Grimes (D): 42

Rasmussen, 8/6-8/7
Kansas Senate

  • Roberts (R): 44
  • Taylor (D): 40

Rasmussen, 8/11-8/12
Iowa Senate

  • Ernst (R): 43
  • Braley (D): 43

 

We saw a handful of new Senate polls released this week as November quickly approaches and the campaign ads get increasingly vicious. As we have reported in the last couple of weeks, Republicans continue to lead in many of the toss-up races around the country.

According to a new PPP poll, conducted between August 7 and August 10, Kentucky Senator and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell continues to lead Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes, extending his lead to 5 percent. In a July Courier-Journal Survey USA poll, McConnell led by 2 percent. In a July CBS News/New York Times poll, McConnell led by 4 percent.

The other races have to make McConnell hopeful that he can become the majority leader in the Senate come 2015.

In Kansas, Republican incumbent Pat Roberts leads Democratic challenger Chad Taylor by 4 percent according to a new Rasmussen poll of likely voters. That’s not necessarily great news for Roberts, however, as the incumbent was excepted to easily win his re-election bid in deep red Kansas.

While some Democrats may be dragged down by President Obama’s unpopularity, Roberts may be dragged down by his state’s governor’s unpopularity. Earlier this week we reported that Kansas Governor Sam Brownback trails his Democratic opponent by 10 percent after winning his first election in a landslide.

In Iowa is where we see the closest race. According to a new Rasmussen poll, conducted between August 11 and August 12, sampling 750 likely voters, Republican Joni Ernst is tied with Democrat Bruce Braley at 43 percent apiece. In the last Rasmussen poll, conducted back in June, the race was also virtually tied with Ernst leading 45-44.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

More Bad News For Democrats as Senate Races Swing Republican

Last week we looked at how President Obama’s sagging approval and favorability ratings are dragging down Democrats in gubernatorial races. The same phenomenon has been the case in the Senate races as a slew of new polls shows Republicans taking the lead in their respective elections.

In Arkansas, where incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor had led by as much as 10 points in the spring, a new CBS News/New York Times poll shows Republican challenger Tom Cotton leading by 4 points. A Rasmussen poll, a Magellan Strategies poll, and an Impact Management Group poll all have Cotton leading by 4 percent as well.

In Kentucky, where recent Survey USA and Magellan Strategies polls had Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes leading by 1-3 points, incumbent Senator and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell leads by 4 percent in the latest CBS/NYT poll and by 2 percent in the latest Survey USA/Courier-Journal poll.

In North Carolina, where incumbent Democratic Senator Kay Hagan led all through June and early July, the new CBS/NYT poll has Republican challenger Thom Tillis pulling ahead by a slim one-point margin.

In Louisiana, where a recent PPP poll had the race tied and a Rasmussen poll had incumbent Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu leading by 3, the new CBS/NYT poll has Republican challenger Bill Cassidy taking a 1 percent lead.

In Iowa, where Democrat Bruce Braley had led just about every single poll to come out of the Hawkeye State, the new CBS/NYT poll has Republican Joni Ernst leading by 1 percent while a new NBC News/Marist poll has the race tied.

In Michigan, where Democrat Gary Peters had led every single poll since April, the new CBS/NYT poll has Republican Terri Lynn Land ahead by 1 percent.

In Georgia, where a recent Landmark Communications poll had Democrat Michelle Nunn up by 4 percent, the new CBS News/NYT poll has Republican David Perdue leading by 6 percent.

There is still time but with most primaries over, the Republicans find themselves in very good position heading toward the November midterms.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)