The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: Arkansas

Trump Dominates Clinton in the South

The two latest polls for Texas (Texas Tribune/YouGov) and Arkansas (Talk Business/Hendrix College) have placed Donald Trump well ahead of his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton.

Which presidential candidate would you vote for?

Texas

  • Donald Trump – 41%
  • Hillary Clinton – 33%

Arkansas

  • Donald Trump – 47%
  • Hillary Clinton – 36%

These two polls signal the first time Trump has held a lead over Clinton in several weeks. Every since the disappearance of Bernie Sanders, Clinton has been dominating Trump in the polls, winning by small and large margins based on the polling state.

Trump is an enigmatic candidate that is hard to predict. In moderate states, he should get clobbered by Clinton, but he will easily win the deep south and any states that vote overwhelmingly Republican. However, Trump is despised by his own party and several longtime Republicans have made it clear that they will not vote for a Republican Party that is being led by Trump. Due to this, it becomes even harder to predict how he will perform in the upcoming election.

On the other side of the fence, Clinton should continue to build her supporter base. Sanders appears to be finished, and while he continues to hold out, his supporters will start to flock to Clinton. As the election approaches, Clinton is also making it clear that she will choose gun control as one of the issues her administration will focus on and she continues to dabble with the idea of selecting Sen. Elizabeth Warren as her runningmate. Time will tell if she chooses Warren, but an Ohio rally on the weekend saw Warren appear and talk on behalf of Clinton, suggesting that she may eventually become the pick.

Photo credit: Democracy Now.

Final 2014 Senate Polls Update and Predictions: New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Alaska, North Carolina, Louisiana, Arkansas, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky

With Election Day just hours away, let’s take a look at how all of the key swing races are shaping up and what we can expect the Senate to look like come January.

In New Hampshire, we are seeing a slew of new polls with very different results so we have to look at the most reliable pollsters. CNN/Opinion Research have Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen leading Republican Scott Brown by 2, CBS/New York Times have her leading by 5, and New England College has Scott Brown leading by 1. RealClearPolitics has Shaheen leading by a point on average and that appears to be the case heading into Tuesday. Look for New Hampshire to have a very tight race, but Shaheen remains a very slight favorite.

In Iowa, Quinnipiac shows a 47-47 tie between Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley while CNN/Opinion Research have Ernst up by 2 and YouGov has Braley up by 1. RCP has Ernst leading Braley but a little over one point on average and she appears to have a very slight lead heading into Election Day.

The race in Colorado has gotten closer as a new Quinnipiac poll has Republican Cory Gardner leading incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall by 2 percent, as does Survey USA. Gardner has led all but one poll over the last month and is the slight favorite to win Colorado for the GOP.

In North Carolina, Democrat Kay Hagan appears to have a slight 2-3 point lead over Republican Thom Tillis according to a new CNN/Opinion Research poll, a YouGov poll, and a PPP poll. NBC News and Survey USA have the race tied. According to RCP, Hagan has a very slight lead over Tillis but is currently a slight favorite to hold on to her job.

In Georgia, Republican David Perdue leads Democrat Michelle Nunn by 3 percent in a new Survey USA poll, 4 percent in an NBC News poll, and 2 percent in a YouGov poll. That sounds about right and the Republican is a slight favorite to win. One thing to watch, however, is that if Perdue fails to win 50 percent of the vote, there will be a run-off election between the two without Libertarian Amanda Swafford on the ballot.

In Alaska, it doesn’t look good for incumbent Democrat Mark Begich who trails Republican Dan Sullivan by 4 percent in a new CBS News/NY Times poll and 6 points in a new CNN/Opinion Research survey. Sullivan is the odds-on favorite to win Alaska back for the GOP.

In Louisiana, Democrat Mary Landrieu continues to lead Tuesday’s open primary against Republican David Cassidy and fellow Republican Rob Maness but that’s a moot point. Landrieu and Cassidy will face off in a runoff on December 6 and Cassidy leads Landrieu by 5 percent in an NBC News/Marist poll and 4 percent in a CBS News/NY Times poll and is the odds-on favorite to win Louisiana for the GOP.

Kentucky was close for a while but that’s no longer the case. A new NBC News/Marist poll has incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell leading Democrat Alison Grimes by 9 percent while a new PPP poll has McConnell up by 8. Don’t look for Kentucky to turn blue on Tuesday.

The Kansas race has drawn closer and a new Survey USA poll has independent Greg Orman leading Republican incumbent Pat Roberts by 2 percent while an NBC News poll has him up by 1. Orman appears to be a very, very slight favorite and says he will caucus with whichever party is in control of the Senate.

In Arkansas, Republican Tom Cotton looks to be the overwhelming favorite to unseat Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor. Cotton leads Pryor by 8 points in a new PPP poll and 7 percent in a new Rasmussen poll.

Predictions:

The Democrats are slightly favored to hold on to their seats in New Hampshire and North Carolina.

The Republicans are likely to win Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska, Kentucky, Louisiana, Colorado, and slightly favored to win Iowa.

Greg Orman is slightly favored to win Kansas and would likely caucus with the Republicans, assuming they win the majority.

2014 Senate Polls Update: Iowa, North Carolina, Louisiana, Arkansas

Iowa: Des Moines Register

  • Ernst (R): 44
  • Braley (D): 38

North Carolina: CNN/Opinion Research

  • Hagan (D): 46
  • Tillis (R): 43

Arkansas: Rasmussen

  • Cotton (R): 47
  • Pryor (D): 40

Louisiana: CNN/Opinion Research

  • Cassidy (R): 50
  • Landrieu (D): 47

With elections just over a month away, we have a ton of polling to look at to get a good idea of what is happening in some of the tightest races in the country. Let’s take a look at the latest numbers to see how things are shaping up as Election Day nears.

In Iowa, where Republican Joni Ernst has been neck and neck with Democrat Bruce Braley, Ernst has taken a 6 percent lead according to a new Des Moines Register poll. That’s the second poll this month, the last one being a Quinnipiac poll released in mid-September, to show Ernst up by six.

In North Carolina, Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan has maintained a 2-5 percent lead but has been unable to pull away from Republican challenger Thom Tillis. Hagan has led every poll released in September and they all have her a few points ahead of the challenger with about a month of campaigning left.

In Arkansas, Republican Tom Cotton has led all but two polls since May and leads the latest Rasmussen poll by 7 percent over Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor. Though Pryor has shown signs of life and Cotton has not opened up a huge lead in any of the polling we’ve seen, Cotton looks to be the odds-on frontrunner to win Arkansas for the GOP.

Louisiana is interesting. Rather than a general election, the state will hold an open senate primary on Election Day before the top two vote-getters face off in a runoff in December. While Democratic incumbent leads Republican Bill Cassidy and fellow GOPer Rob Maness in the open primary polls, she trails Cassidy by 3 points in the latest general election poll. It looks like Louisiana is likely to go back in the red come December.