The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: Bruce Braley

Iowa Senate: Ernst One Point Ahead of Braley

Des Moines Register, 10/3 – 10/8

Iowa Senate

  • Joni Ernst – Republican – 47%
  • Bruce Braley – Democrat – 46%

The Des Moines Register has released a poll that asked 1,000 likely voters several questions regarding the Iowa senate. Both candidates are neck and neck. The Republican Joni Ernst scored 47 percent of the vote, while the Democrat Bruce Braley had 46 percent. This race has been very close in the past few weeks and that looks unlikely to change.

Braley and Ernst had very similar favorability ratings. 47 percent of the voters see Ernst as favorable, while 43 percent do not. For Braley, 44 percent see him as favorable and 43 percent do not.

The poll asked voters several questions regarding politically recognizable names and whether or not they would help or harm the campaign of either candidate. For Ernst, 69 percent of the voters saw support from Chuck Grassley as positive, 67 percent said the same for Terry Branstad, while 56 and 50 percent believed Sarah Palin and the Koch brothers were detrimental to her cause.

For Braley, 65, 60, and 52 percent thought that Bill Clinton, Tom Harkin, and Hillary Clinton could help, while 53 percent saw Barack Obama as a wedge in Braley’s campaign.

In terms of important issues, unemployment and jobs ranked at the top with 19 percent of the votes, healthcare with 15 percent, the federal deficit with 14 percent, terrorism with 13 percent, and immigration with 12 percent.

59 percent of Iowans believe that the U.S. shouldn’t rule out the possibility of deploying soldiers into the Middle-East, while 32 percent believe they should steer clear of the region. 52 percent of voters believe that the U.S. must intervene to maintain its image internationally as the global military leader.

Braley’s campaign was also humiliated recently when Michelle Obama delivered a speech where she mispronounced his name several times in the process, calling him “Bailey” instead of his actual name.

Photo credit: The Debate Place.

Iowa Senate: Stalemate between Ernst and Braley

Rasmussen Reports, 9/17 – 9/18

Iowa Senate

  • Joni Ernst – Republican – 43%
  • Bruce Braley – Democrat – 43%
  • Other – 4%
  • Undecided – 10%

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll has revealed that the race for the Iowa Senate is a dead-even tie. The poll had a margin of error of 4% and surveyed 750 likely voters. Participants were asked who they would vote for if an election were to occur today. 43% of the voters chose the Republican Joni Ernst, 43% the Democrat Bruce Braley, 4% were interested in a different candidate, and 10% were undecided.

The demographics for this poll were as follows: 49% of the voters were male, 51% were female, 23% were aged 18-39, 51% were 40-64, and 26% were over the age of 65, 94% were white and 6% were non-white, and 34% identified as Republicans, 32% as Democrats, and 34% as a different party. The results of this poll are fair based on the fact that the party split was fairly even.

In terms of favorability, Ernst scored an approval rating of 47% and a disapproval rating of 44%, while Braley’s approval rating and disapproval rating were exactly the same. In terms of name recognition, 4% of the voters have never heard of Ernst and 3% of them have never heard of Braley. The similarity of the approval ratings makes it nearly impossible to predict who will win the election. The state is considered a toss-up at this point and it will likely remain that way until the polls close.

Like most states in the U.S., 51% of the voters view healthcare reform as unfavorable. If Braley wants to take the lead in the polls, she will have to convince voters that healthcare reform is beneficial and important to them. The Democrats have the tools to succeed, but they need to convince voters that these tools are valuable and worth voting for.

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2014 Senate Polls Update: Iowa, Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Kansas

Earlier this week we reported the latest poll numbers for every single senate race in the country. Today we look at six of the most competitive senate races to see where things stand as November approaches.

Let’s start with Kansas, which is one of the most interesting races in the country. Governor Sam Brownback appears to be headed for a big time defeat and is bringing down Republican Senator Pat Roberts with him. It appeared that Roberts was neck-and-neck with Democrat Chad Taylor. Taylor has since dropped out of the race (although his name will still appear on the ballot) in favor of independent candidate Greg Orman.

In the latest Survey USA poll, Orman leads Roberts by a single point while Taylor is still polling at 10 percent. With Taylor essentially out of the picture, it appears that Orman is the odds-on favorite to win Kansas.

Iowa is truly one of the closest races in the country after three straight August polls had the race completely tied. Three September polls show Democrat Bruce Braley inching ahead as a CBS News/NY Times poll has Braley up by 2, a Loras College poll has him up by 4, and a new CNN poll has him up by a point. Iowa is truly too-close-to-call and likely will be until Election Day.

In Colorado, incumbent Democrat Mark Udall has now led Republican challenger Cory Gardner in six straight polls since July. The latest Denver Post/Survey USA poll has Udall up by 4 while a Rasmussen poll has him up by 2 and an NBC News/Marist poll has him up by 6. Udall appears to be the slight frontrunner and has been since polling began in March.

In Georgia, Republican David Perdue has now led Democrat Michelle Nunn in three straight September polls. A CBS/NYT poll has him up by 6, a Survey USA poll has him up by 3, and an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll has him up by 4. Perdue appears to have the slight edge heading toward October.

North Carolina is another toss-up state after incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan posted slight leads in four of the last five polls while Republican challenger Thom Tillis has led three of the last seven polls. A new Rasmussen poll has Hagan leading by 6 while a Survey USA poll has her up by 1. At this point, North Carolina is anyone’s to win.

The Democrats did get some good news out of Michigan, however, where Democrat Gary Peters has led Republican Terri Lynn Land in three straight polls. A Detroit News poll has Peters up by 10, a PPP poll has Peters up by 5, and a USA Today poll has Peters up by 9. Peters appears to be the frontrunner in this one.

2014 Senate Polls Update: Iowa, Alaska, Arkansas, Kansas, Michigan

There was a handful of polls tracking the closest 2014 Senate races released this week and presented good and bad news for both parties as Election Day nears.

Iowa is by far the closest race of any this election cycle as two new polls show a dead heat between Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley. Since July, four of five polls had the race as an even tie while a CBS News/New York Times poll released in early July had Ernst leading by one point.

Arkansas is another state that could really go either way. After Republican challenger Tom Cotton led two July polls by 2 percent, incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor leads Cotton by one point in the latest Rasmussen poll so this race is a virtual tie as well.

In Alaska, where incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Begich led by 4 percent in the last PPP poll in July, a new Rasmussen survey shows Republican challenger Dan Sullivan leading Begich by 2 percent.

In Michigan, Democrat Gary Peters appears to be the frontrunner over Republican Terri Lynn Land, the only question is by how much. While a Rasmussen poll and EPIC-MRA poll show Peters up by 6 percent, a Harper poll only has Peters leading by 1 percent and a Mitchell Research poll has Peters up by 2.

In Kansas we see an interesting race as it is one of the few three-way races in the country. Republican incumbent Pat Roberts currently leads Democrat Chad Taylor and independent challenger Greg Orman but Orman is gaining ground.

The latest Survey USA poll has Roberts with 37 percent, Taylor with 32 percent, and Orman with 20 percent.

2014 Senate Polls Update: Republicans Roll in Kentucky, Iowa, Kansas

PPP, 8/7-8/10
Kentucky Senate

  • McConnell (R): 47
  • Grimes (D): 42

Rasmussen, 8/6-8/7
Kansas Senate

  • Roberts (R): 44
  • Taylor (D): 40

Rasmussen, 8/11-8/12
Iowa Senate

  • Ernst (R): 43
  • Braley (D): 43


We saw a handful of new Senate polls released this week as November quickly approaches and the campaign ads get increasingly vicious. As we have reported in the last couple of weeks, Republicans continue to lead in many of the toss-up races around the country.

According to a new PPP poll, conducted between August 7 and August 10, Kentucky Senator and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell continues to lead Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes, extending his lead to 5 percent. In a July Courier-Journal Survey USA poll, McConnell led by 2 percent. In a July CBS News/New York Times poll, McConnell led by 4 percent.

The other races have to make McConnell hopeful that he can become the majority leader in the Senate come 2015.

In Kansas, Republican incumbent Pat Roberts leads Democratic challenger Chad Taylor by 4 percent according to a new Rasmussen poll of likely voters. That’s not necessarily great news for Roberts, however, as the incumbent was excepted to easily win his re-election bid in deep red Kansas.

While some Democrats may be dragged down by President Obama’s unpopularity, Roberts may be dragged down by his state’s governor’s unpopularity. Earlier this week we reported that Kansas Governor Sam Brownback trails his Democratic opponent by 10 percent after winning his first election in a landslide.

In Iowa is where we see the closest race. According to a new Rasmussen poll, conducted between August 11 and August 12, sampling 750 likely voters, Republican Joni Ernst is tied with Democrat Bruce Braley at 43 percent apiece. In the last Rasmussen poll, conducted back in June, the race was also virtually tied with Ernst leading 45-44.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

More Bad News For Democrats as Senate Races Swing Republican

Last week we looked at how President Obama’s sagging approval and favorability ratings are dragging down Democrats in gubernatorial races. The same phenomenon has been the case in the Senate races as a slew of new polls shows Republicans taking the lead in their respective elections.

In Arkansas, where incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor had led by as much as 10 points in the spring, a new CBS News/New York Times poll shows Republican challenger Tom Cotton leading by 4 points. A Rasmussen poll, a Magellan Strategies poll, and an Impact Management Group poll all have Cotton leading by 4 percent as well.

In Kentucky, where recent Survey USA and Magellan Strategies polls had Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes leading by 1-3 points, incumbent Senator and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell leads by 4 percent in the latest CBS/NYT poll and by 2 percent in the latest Survey USA/Courier-Journal poll.

In North Carolina, where incumbent Democratic Senator Kay Hagan led all through June and early July, the new CBS/NYT poll has Republican challenger Thom Tillis pulling ahead by a slim one-point margin.

In Louisiana, where a recent PPP poll had the race tied and a Rasmussen poll had incumbent Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu leading by 3, the new CBS/NYT poll has Republican challenger Bill Cassidy taking a 1 percent lead.

In Iowa, where Democrat Bruce Braley had led just about every single poll to come out of the Hawkeye State, the new CBS/NYT poll has Republican Joni Ernst leading by 1 percent while a new NBC News/Marist poll has the race tied.

In Michigan, where Democrat Gary Peters had led every single poll since April, the new CBS/NYT poll has Republican Terri Lynn Land ahead by 1 percent.

In Georgia, where a recent Landmark Communications poll had Democrat Michelle Nunn up by 4 percent, the new CBS News/NYT poll has Republican David Perdue leading by 6 percent.

There is still time but with most primaries over, the Republicans find themselves in very good position heading toward the November midterms.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)