The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: Charlie Baker

2014 Massachusetts Governor: Baker Officially Takes the Lead after Trailing for Months

Boston Globe, 9/28 – 9/30

2014 Massachusetts Governor

  • Charlie Baker – Republican – 39%
  • Martha Coakley – Democrat – 36%

The Boston Globe has released a new poll for the 2014 Massachusetts governor race. If you are voting for the Democrat Martha Coakley, you may be disappointed with the results. Her Republican opponent, Charlie Baker, has closed a massive double digit gap over the last few months and has now taken the lead in most polls. Currently, Baker has 39 percent of the votes, while Coakley has only 36 percent.

In May, Coakley was +9, in June she was +13, and in July she was +15. After July, her ratings began to fall. At this point, Baker capitalized on his opponent’s downswing and began to rise.

44 percent of the voters see Baker as a favorable candidate, while 48 percent say the same about Coakley. 16 percent of voters have never heard of Baker and for Coakley the number is only 2 percent.

Massachusetts is a blue state. However, historically, they have favored Republican governors, who are expected to act as a system of checks and balances against the liberal machine. The state has voted in 31 Republican governors to the Democrat’s 19. Before the Democrat Governor Deval Patrick was elected, the previous four governors were all Republican.

Why has Coakley fallen so far in the polls? As attorney general, she has worked on many cases that have involved child abuse. Supporters of Baker have created a set of attack ads that have criticized Coakley for being too soft and for not doing enough, a fact which is untrue, and one that has upset Coakley and made her look overly defensive.

As of now, it looks as if the gubernatorial race in Massachusetts will be won by the Republicans.

Photo credit: WBUR.

Shock Poll: Republican Charlie Baker Takes Lead Over Martha Coakley in Deep Blue Massachusetts

Boston Globe, 9/21-9/23
Massachusetts Governor

  • Baker (R): 40
  • Coakley (D): 38

Though traditionally known as a blue state, four of the Massachusetts’ last five governors were Republican and current outgoing Governor Deval Patrick is the first Democrat to head the state since Michael Dukakis retired in 1991.

A new surprising Boston Globe poll suggests that the next governor may just be a Republican as well, with Charlie Baker taking a lead over Democratic opponent Martha Coakley.

The poll, conducted between September 21 and September 23, sampling 400 likely voters, found that Baker leads Coakley by 2 percent after trailing her for the vast majority of the campaign.

While it’s a surprise to see Baker atop the poll because Coakley has led all but one poll going all the way back to last year, the poll trends have shown this race tightening for a while.

Up until July, Coakley saw almost nothing but double-digit leads. Earlier this month, the Boston Globe showed Coakley up by just 3 percent while a Rasmussen poll released several days later had the race tied, 42-42.

Coakley remains the slight favorite based on past polling trends, and RealClearPolitics now has her polling an average of 3 percent ahead of Baker, but the Republican certainly has plenty of time to solidify a lead.

This is an interesting race because while other Democrats around the country are increasingly dragged down by President Obama’s approval ratings, the President is fairly popular in Massachusetts. Of the poll respondents, 47 percent approve of the job he’s done on the economy and healthcare, compared to 45 and 46 percent who disapprove, respectively.

On the other hand, just 15 percent of respondents said they approve of the job Republicans in Congress are doing.

Perhaps this has nothing to do with Democrats and Republicans. Perhaps Martha Coakley is just a terrible candidate. She’s already proven as much by losing Ted Kennedy’s vacant Senate seat to Republican Scott Brown in 2010 and the voters clearly didn’t want Brown who was easily unseated by Elizabeth Warren just two years later.

For the First Time in the Massachusetts Governor Race, Baker Takes a Slim Lead

Boston Globe, 6/27 – 8/26

Massachusetts Governor

  • Charlie Baker – Republican – 38%
  • Martha Coakley – Democrat – 37%

The Boston Globe has released a poll that shows Republican Charlie Baker in the lead over Democrat Martha Coakley, for the first time in the Massachusetts Governor race. The poll asked 605 voters who they would vote for if the election were to occur today. 38% of voters said that they would vote for Baker while 37% sided with Coakley. A CBS News / NYT / YouGov poll from early July had Coakley at a +15 lead and a Mass Insight / Opinion Dynamics poll from late July had her at a +3.

Of the 605 voters, 197 identified as Democrats, 106 as Republicans, and 302 as independent. In terms of gender, women tend to favor Coakley while men side with Baker. Statistically, 49% of women said they would vote for Coakley and 29% for Baker, while 44% of men said they would vote Baker and only 29% for Coakley.

The election is far from decided, both candidates still have to win their individual primaries on September 9th before they can move onto a general election. Both candidates hold a commanding lead over their opposition. However, 48% of the voters for Coakley’s opposition, Democrat Steve Grossman, said that they would vote for Baker if Grossman was to be eliminated. If she wants to gain the upper hand, she will need to convince Grossman’s voters that she is the right candidate and that she has a better platform than Baker.

Amongst her own voters, 51% of them see her as a favorable candidate and 40% see her as unfavorable. What does this mean? 91% of voters recognize Coakley’s name and have formed an opinion about her. If Baker can capitalize on the divide amongst the Democrats, he may be able to steal this election.

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