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2014 Senate Polls Update: Iowa, Kentucky, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia

Iowa: Reuters

  • Ernst (R): 45
  • Braley (D): 45

Kentucky: Courier-Journal/Survey USA

  • McConnell (R): 48
  • Grimes (D): 43

Colorado: Quinnipiac

  • Gardner (R): 46
  • Udall (D): 39

North Carolina: Rasmussen

  • Hagan (D): 47
  • Tillis (R): 46

Georgia: WSB-TV/Landmark

  • Nunn (D): 47
  • Perdue (R): 47
  • Swafford (L): 3

With the elections just days away, polls out of the most competitive states in the country are seemingly changing every day. Luckily, most voters have made up their mind by now and poll results are growing increasingly closer to what is likely to be the final tally. Let’s take a look at how some of the tightest senate races are shaping up heading into election week.

Iowa figures to be one of the closest races in the country, possibly to the point where we don’t even know the winner on election night. A new Rasmussen poll has Republican Joni Ernst up by 1, a Loras College poll has Democrat Bruce Braley up by 1, and a new Reuters poll has the race dead even.

According to RealClearPolitics, Ernst leads Braley by an average of 46.5-45.3 and is a slight favorite to win.

In Kentucky, Republican Mitch McConnell is expected to win but not by a whole lot. McConnell leads Democrat Alison Grimes by 5 percent in a new Courier-Journal poll and 6 percent in a new CBS News/New York Times poll.

In Colorado, Republican Cory Gardner is also a likely favorite to unseat Democratic incumbent Mark Udall. A new Quinnipiac poll has Gardner up by 7, a Rasmussen poll has him up by 6, and RCP has him leading by an average of 47-43.

North Carolina is another state that is going to be very, very tight. Three of the last eight polls released this week have the race dead even while a Rasmussen poll, CBS News poll, Survey USA poll, and PPP poll have Democrat Kay Hagan leading Republican challenger Thom Tillis by 1-3 percent.

Hagan remains the slight favorite but certainly a very vulnerable one.

Georgia is one state to watch. We have seen Democrat Michelle Nunn make some headway of late as she’s attacked Republican David Perdue’s business practices, notably his overseas outsourcing and a pay discrimination lawsuit he was hit with while heading up Dollar General. A new WSB-TV poll has Perdue and Nunn tied with 47 percent of the vote while Libertarian candidate Amanda Swafford is polling at 3 percent.

If neither candidate can get 50 percent plus one vote, the two will face each other in a run-off with Swafford out of the race.

2014 Senate Polls Update: Kentucky, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, Arkansas

North Carolina: NBC News/Marist

  • Hagan (D): 43
  • Tillis (R): 43
  • Haugh (L): 7

Colorado: Rasmussen

  • Gardner (R): 51
  • Udall (D): 45

Kentucky: Rasmussen

  • McConnell (R): 52
  • Grimes (D): 44

Iowa: NBC News/Marist

  • Ernst (R): 49
  • Braley (D): 46

Arkansas: Rasmussen

  • Cotton (R): 47
  • Pryor (D): 44

With Election Day just a week away, we are now in crunch time. This week, voters all around the country will have to endure a flurry of negative campaign ads everywhere they look as candidates make one last push to win over undecided voters. Let’s take a look at who’s pulling ahead and who needs all the help they can get in the final week of a long campaign.

In North Carolina, we have mostly been tracking head-to-head polls between incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis. A new NBC News poll and a HighPoint/Survey USA poll, however, suggest that libertarian candidate Sean Haugh could pull in 5-7 percent of the vote which certainly has big ramifications in this close race. Both polls have Hagan and Tillis tied while two earlier CBS News/NY Times and PPP polls have Hagan up by 3. Hagan remains a very slight favorite in this one.

In Colorado, incumbent Democrat Mark Udall has fallen behind badly after leading the race for most of the year. Udall led nearly every poll out of the state until September. Since September, Republican Cory Gardner has led 14 of the last 16 polls and RealClearPolitics has Gardner up by an average of 47-44. A new Rasmussen poll has Gardner leading by 6.

In Kentucky, Democrat Alison Grimes has flirted with the lead but Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell has proven too well-funded and well-known. McConnell leads Grimes by an average of 46-42, according to RCP, and leads Grimes by 8 percent in the latest Rasmussen poll.

The race in Iowa remains tight but Republican Joni Ernst has certainly established herself as a slight favorite over Democrat Bruce Braley. Braley has not led any poll since September and the latest NBC News poll has Ernst up by 3 percent. RCP has Ernst up by an average of 47-45.

In Arkansas, Republican Tom Cotton appears to be headed for a win over Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor. Cotton has led all but two polls since May and RCP has him up by an average of 47-42. The latest Rasmussen poll has Cotton leading by 3 percent while other polls have him leading by as much as 7-8 points.

2014 Senate Polls Update: North Carolina, Colorado, Kansas, Georgia, Iowa

North Carolina: PPP

  • Hagan (D): 47
  • Tillis (R): 44

Georgia: Atlanta Journal-Constitution

  • Perdue (R): 44
  • Nunn (D): 42

Colorado: Quinnipiac

  • Gardner (R): 46
  • Udall (D): 41

Iowa: Quinnipiac

  • Ernst (R): 48
  • Braley (D): 46

Kansas: Rasmussen

  • Orman (I): 49
  • Roberts (R): 44

We know that the closer it is to election time, the more accurate the polls become. We’ve seen a flurry of polls from the country’s tightest senate races released this week and we have a better idea of what’s to come in November. Let’s take a look at how the most competitive senate races are shaping up.

In North Carolina, three new polls have Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan leading Republican challenger Thom Tillis by 2-3 percent while a Civitas poll has the race tied. The PPP poll with Hagan up by 3 and the Rasmussen poll with Hagan up by 2 have the lowest margin of error and are more reliable so it appears that Hagan has a slight lead heading into November.

In Georgia, where Democrat Michelle Nunn was pulling ahead by 1-3 percent, a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll has Republican David Perdue leading by 2 percent. Perdue had led nearly every single poll between the summer and October before he took a hit over his outsourcing practices when he was the CEO of Dollar General. Perdue remains a slight favorite to win but Nunn is doing everything she can to stay competitive.

In Colorado, where incumbent Democrat Mark Udall looked like a lock to win, Republican challenger Cory Gardner is now the odds-on favorite. Gardner has now led nine straight polls and leads the latest Quinnipiac poll by 5 percent. The last nine polls all have Gardner up anywhere from 2-7 percent and he appears to be the frontrunner.

In Iowa, the race remains tight but Republican Joni Ernst has now led five straight polls with a slight 1-4 percent lead over Democrat Bruce Braley. The latest Quinnipiac poll has Ernst up by 2 so Braley is certainly still in it but failing to gain traction.

That brings us to Kansas, where the polling is a bloody mess. Since the beginning of the month, incumbent Republican Pat Roberts had led a CNN poll by 1 and a Fox News poll by 5 while independent challenger Greg Orman has led a Survey USA poll by 5, a PPP poll by 3, and a Rasmussen poll by 5. Since the Fox News poll was conducted online, and is less reliable, I’d be more inclined to lean with the Rasmussen numbers. Orman has now led Roberts by 5+ percent in eight of the 13 polls out of Kansas.

2014 Senate Polls Update: Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia

Georgia: WSB-TV/Landmark

  • Perdue (R): 46
  • Nunn (D): 46

Colorado: High Point/Survey USA

  • Gardner (R): 46
  • Udall (D): 42

New Hampshire: High Point/Survey USA

  • Shaheen (D): 48
  • Brown (R): 46

North Carolina: High Point

  • Hagan (D): 40
  • Tillis (R): 40

Iowa: Rasmussen

  • Ernst (R): 48
  • Braley (D): 45

Rather than seeing a front runner emerge, we are seeing the tightest senate races in the country get tighter as the final month of campaigning grows increasingly fierce. Let’s take a look at the latest numbers out of the closest and most crucial senate races around the nation.

In Georgia, a new WSB-TV/Landmark poll has Republican David Perdue in a 46-46 tie with Democrat Michelle Nunn while a Survey USA poll has the GOPer up by just one point. Perdue had led Nunn in most recent polls by about 4 percent and it appears that slim lead is now even slimmer.

In Colorado, where Democratic incumbent Mark Udall had led most of the polls since the race began, Republican challenger Cory Gardner has pulled ahead by 4 percent according to a new High Point/Survey USA poll and 6 percent according to a new Fox News poll. The numbers are clearly trending higher for Gardner who has now led five of the last six polls out of Colorado.

In New Hampshire, Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen has managed to keep a slim 2-point lead over Republican Scott Brown and has led every poll out of the state. The lead is slim and Brown is closing in but for now Shaheen is certainly the frontrunner.

In North Carolina, where Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan had led the last five polls by 1-4 percent, a new High Point poll has the race all tied up. Hagan has led in every poll since September, however, so she remains a slight favorite.

In Iowa, where we have seen plenty of polls show a tie between Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst, the GOPer has now taken a 3 percent lead according to a new Rasmussen poll. Ernst has now led three of the last four polls out of Iowa, albeit by just 1-3 percent. This is as tight a race as any but Ernst has a slight edge.

2014 Governor Polls Update: Democrats Take Lead in Illinois, Colorado, Wisconsin, Maine, Michigan

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov, 9/20-10/1:

Colorado:

  • Hickenlooper (D): 49
  • Beauprez (R): 45

Wisconsin:

  • Burke (D): 49
  • Walker (R): 48

Illinois:

  • Quinn (D): 46
  • Rauner (R): 43

Michigan:

  • Schauer (D): 46
  • Snyder (R): 44

Maine:

  • Michaud (D): 39
  • LePage (R): 37
  • Cutler (I): 10

While much of the focus is on the midterm Senate elections, the real power lies in the many gubernatorial seats up for grabs in November. The latest CBS News/New York Times/YouGov poll dump has some good news for Democrats in some of the tightest gubernatorial races in the country.

In Colorado, where a Fox News poll showed the race completely tied earlier this month, CBS/NYT have Democratic incumbent John Hickenlooper leading Republican challenger Bob Beauprez by a margin of 49-45. A Rasmussen poll in late September also had Hickenlooper up by 4.

In Wisconsin, where incumbent Republican Scott Walker led a Rasmussen and Marquette University poll in September, NYT/CBS have Democratic challenger Mary Burke up by 1 percent. Walker has been unable to pull away by more than a few percentage points in the polls and while he has led most of the polls, Burke is certainly making it close.

In Illinois, where a WeAskAmerica poll had Republican Bruce Rauner up by 3 percent in mid-September, CBS/NYT have Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn up by 3 while a recent Rasmussen poll has the Governor up by 2.

In Michigan, where Republican incumbent Rick Snyder had led nine straight polls since early September, CBS/NYT have Democratic challenger Mark Schauer pulling ahead by 2 percent.

In Maine, where incumbent Republican Governor Paul LePage led a September Pan Atlantic SMS poll by 5 percent, CBS/NYT have Democratic challenger Mike Michaud leading by 2 percent with 39 percent of the vote, LePage is at 37, and independent Eliot Cutler is at 10.

2014 Senate Polls Update: New Hampshire, Colorado, Kansas, Iowa

New Hampshire: New England College

  • Shaheen (D): 47
  • Brown (R): 47

Colorado: Rasmussen

  • Gardner (R): 48
  • Udall (D): 47

Iowa: PPP

  • Ernst (R): 45
  • Braley (D): 43

Kansas: Rasmussen

  • Orman (I): 45
  • Roberts (R): 40

The most competitive Senate races in the country are seeing Republicans make major headway, except Kansas where an independent candidate is surging. Let’s take a look at the latest polls to see what we can make of the races in New Hampshire, Colorado, Kansas, and Iowa.

In New Hampshire, a new New England College poll has the race between Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen and Republican challenger Scott Brown tied at 47 to 47. A CNN poll released in September also had the race tied at 48-48. Shaheen had led every poll out of New Hampshire until that CNN poll and it appears that Brown has made what should have been a Democratic lock into a very competitive race.

Colorado has a similar situation with Republican challenger Cory Gardner pulling ahead after Democratic incumbent Mark Udall had led just about every Colorado poll until September. New polls from Rasmussen and USA Today both have Gardner with a slight 1 percent lead as the calendar turns to October.

In Iowa, where the race was a dead tie earlier in September, a new Des Moines Register poll has Republican Joni Ernst leading Democrat Bruce Braley by 6 percent while a PPP poll has the GOPer up by 2. Ernst has led three of the last five polls and tied Braley in the other two.

In Kansas, Democrat Chad Taylor has dropped out of the race, leaving independent candidate Greg Orman as the odds-on favorite. With Taylor off the ballot, Orman has now led Republican Pat Roberts by 5-6 percent in every head-to-head poll, including surveys from Fox News, Rasmussen, and USA Today.

2014 Senate Polls Update: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Kansas, Colorado, Iowa

Updated RealClearPolitics Averages:

Georgia:

  • Perdue (R): 45.9
  • Nunn (D): 42.6

Michigan:

  • Peters (D): 44.7
  • Land (R): 39.3

North Carolina:

  • Hagan (D): 45.7
  • Tillis (R): 40.7

 

New Hampshire:

  • Shaheen (D): 48.3
  • Brown (R): 43.3

Kansas:

  • Orman (I): 38.5
  • Roberts (R): 37.3

Colorado:

  • Udall (D): 44
  • Roberts (R): 43.4

Iowa:

  • Braley (D): 43.5
  • Ernst (R): 43.4

With Election Day roughly six weeks away, the polls from the tightest senate races in the country are being released seemingly daily. Let’s take a look at the closest races around the nation to see if we can make sense of who’s up and who’s down.

In Georgia, a new Rasmussen poll has found that Republican David Perdue leads Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn by a 46-41 margin. RealClearPolitics reports that Perdue has averaged a 46-42.5 lead over Nunn since the end of August and appears to be the significant frontrunner.

In Michigan, Democrat Gary Peters has now led Republican nominee Terri Lynn Land in five straight polls and RCP reports that Peters has averaged a 45-39 lead since late August.

In North Carolina, things suddenly seem to be swinging towards Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan, who has now led Republican challenger Thom Tillis in six straight polls. RCP reports that Hagan is averaging a 46-41 lead over Tillis in September.

In New Hampshire, incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen seems to be headed for a victory over Republican nominee Scott Brown as she has yet to trail in any poll out of the Granite State. RCP reports that Shaheen is averaging a 48-43 lead over Brown since mid-August.

Kansas is an interesting case. The Supreme Court has finally allowed Democrat Chad Taylor to remove his name from the ballot after he dropped out weeks ago. Now, independent candidate Greg Orman is the favorite to unseat incumbent Republican Pat Roberts, although he led by as much as 7 percent even with Taylor on the ballot. Orman has vowed to caucus with whichever party is in the majority.

Colorado is getting interesting. After incumbent Mark Udall led Republican challenger Cory Gardner in every poll between mid-July and early September, two new polls have Gardner surging ahead. With the latest USA Today poll putting Gardner up by 1, RCP has this race essentially deadlocked at 44-44.

Iowa appears to be as competitive as any other state. After a few polls showed Democrat Bruce Braley take a slight lead and a Quinnipiac poll had Republican Joni Ernst up, the latest Fox News and Rasmussen polls have the race as a tie. Five of the last nine polls have now had this race dead even.

After Leading For Months, Senator Mark Udall Falls Into Tie With Cory Gardner in Colorado

PPP, 7/17-7/20
Colorado Senate

  • Udall (D): 44
  • Gardner (R): 43

A new PPP poll has found that Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Cory Gardner are in a virtual tie for the first time in the election cycle after Udall held a significant lead in the last three polls.

The poll, conducted between July 17 and July 20, sampling 653 Colorado voters, shows incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall leading Republican Congressman Cory Gardner by just one point, a 44-43 margin, in a poll that has a margin of error of 3.8 percent.

In the last poll, conducted in May, Udall led Gardner by four points and the one-percent difference represents the slimmest margin of the campaign.

Gardner, a two-term Congressman who previously served in the Colorado House of Representatives, has gained significant ground among independent voters, now leading Udall among unaffiliated voters by a margin of 45-38. Udall’s standing with independents has fallen significantly from 43 percent in May.

Gardner has also increased his lead among male voters, leading the incumbent among men by a margin of 53-38. As with independents, Udall saw a five-point drop from May among male supporters.

Udall continues to lead with women, however, claiming 49 percent of the female vote to 35 percent for Gardner, a staunch pro-lifer.

Udall has become the victim of his own voting record. In Colorado, a purple state, just 36 percent of voters now approve of his job performance (compared t0 42 percent in May) while 47 percent disapprove.

To be fair, Gardner’s statewide numbers aren’t a lot better as 34 percent say they have a favorable opinion of the Congressman while 39 percent say they have an unfavorable view.

(Image courtesy of Senate Democrats)