Tag Archives: Elizabeth Warren
This isn’t the first time a Hillary Clinton nomination has appeared “inevitable.”
In the leadup to the 2008 primaries, it long appeared that Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic nominee and the next in line to be president. Things didn’t quite go that way.
At this point (two and a half years out) in the 2008 process, then-Senator Obama was polling at around 7 percent to Hillary Clinton’s 33, and many polls didn’t include him at all in favor of potential candidates like Al Gore, John Kerry, John Edwards, and Joe Biden.
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren actually finds herself in a better spot now than Obama did in 2006, despite trailing Clinton by 50+ points in the polls.
The only difference between this primary and 2008 is the lack of candidates. Outside of Hillary and Warren, only Joe Biden is polling in relevant numbers while candidates like New York Governor Andrew Cuomo look like massive longshots. Otherwise, Warren is in a prime spot to elevate her standing over the next two years and pull out an Obama-like victory.
It’ll all come down to early momentum.
In the Iowa first-in-the-nation caucus, Clinton has seen her numbers slip from 71 percent to 59 percent in the most recent poll while Warren has inched up from single-digits to 11-12 percent in the Hawkeye State.
In the New Hampshire first-in-the-nation primary, Warren has also edged up from single-digits to 13 percent in the last poll we’ve seen.
Certainly, Warren does not have the same amount of candidates to water down Hillary’s poll numbers as there were in 2008 but that doesn’t mean she can’t pull off the same type of upset – and an influx of more progressive or fringe candidates like former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders could certainly hit Hillary’s base.
A look at the 2008 primary poll trends shows that Obama wasn’t consistently polling at 20 percent until February of 2007. In other words, if Warren is polling 20-23 percent by February/March of 2015, she would be right where Obama was and her current trajectory shows her doing just that.
(Image courtesy of Senate Democrats)
Iowa Democratic Caucus
- Clinton: 63
- Warren: 12
- Biden: 10
- Warner: 1
- Cuomo: 1
We have noted that one major problem of Hillary Clinton’s long presumed frontrunner status in the Democratic primary is that eventually Hillary fatigue is bound to set in. In fact, some signs of Hillary fatigue may already be starting to show as Democrats look for alternative candidates. A new Suffolk poll shows that Elizabeth Warren has more than doubled her support in Iowa over the past two months and could pose a legitimate challenge to Clinton by the time the primaries roll around in January of 2016.
The poll, conducted between April 3 and April 8, sampling 135 likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers, found that Elizabeth Warren has leapfrogged Vice President Joe Biden for second place in the first-in-the-nation caucus state.
Up until now, we have seen Warren polling at around 3-5 percent in Iowa, slightly lower than she has been polling in national polls. Her 12 percent represents a major leap forward in a small amount of time, regardless of how much she may be trailing Clinton by well over a year and a half out. She is also the only candidate outside of the virtually unelectable Joe Biden to show signs of life in the Democratic polls.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton has kept her first place status in Iowa but Warren is slowly chipping away. Clinton has now fallen from 71 percent of the vote last summer and fall to 67 percent in February and 63 percent in this latest survey.
Vice President Joe Biden finished in third place with 10 percent of the vote, a slight dip from his usual 11-12 percent that we have seen consistently.
The other candidates, Virginia Senator Mark Warner and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo received just 1 percent apiece and don’t stand much of a chance.
If the Democrats are in search of a Hillary alternative, Elizabeth Warren is likely their only real hope. At this point in the 2008 race, Clinton was almost guaranteed the nomination while Obama was polling at 12 percent as late as December of 2006, which would be the equivalent of December of this year in terms of the 2016 race. More so, support in Iowa can go a long way into helping Warren build momentum heading into the rest of the primary season.
(Image courtesy of Sharon Machlis Gartenberg)
- Warren: 48.6
- Clinton: 47.8
- Ryan: 47.4
- Jindal: 47.1
- Walker: 46.6
- Rubio: 46.3
- Huckabee: 46.1
- Paul: 45.7
- Christie: 45.2
- Bush: 44.7
- Biden: 42.7
- Cruz: 42.5
- Santorum: 40.9
- Perry: 40.2
A surprising new Qunnipiac poll has found that Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is the best liked potential 2016 presidential candidate but her lack of name recognition has stunted her in public opinion polls.
According to the poll, conducted between March 26 and March 31, sampling 1,578 registered voters, Elizabeth Warren has the highest score on Quinnipiac’s “feeling thermometer” in which voters rate candidates on favorability using a scale of 0 to 100.
Warren received a mean score of 48.6, higher than any other candidate, but 46 percent of respondents said they do not know enough about Warren to form an opinion. In the last poll, conducted in January, Chris Christie had been the most liked candidate with a mean score of 55.5 but has since been hit hard by the Bridgegate scandal. Christie is now at 45.2.
Coming in right behind Warren is former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with a 47.8 rating. Right on her heels is Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan with a 47.4 score and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal with a 47.1.
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee all finished in the 46 range while Kentucky Senator Rand Paul finished slightly behind them with a 45.7.
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush scores a 44.7, followed by Joe Biden with 42.7, Ted Cruz with 42.5, Rick Santorum with 40.9, and Rick Perry with 40.2.
Warren was among the candidates that the most respondents said they did not know enough about. The least known potential 2016 candidate is former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer with 81 percent of respondents saying they do not know enough about him to form an opinion. Interestingly, 54 percent say they do not know enough about Scott Walker, 38 percent say they don’t know enough about Ted Cruz, and 18 percent say they do not know enough about Chris Christie.
- Christie: 55.5
- Huckabe: 51
- Warren: 50.7
- Jindal: 49.6
- Walker: 49.2
- Clinton: 48.5
- Rubio: 47.1
- Paul: 47.1
- Ryan: 46.7
- Bush: 45.1
- Cruz: 43.9
- Biden: 43.7
- Cuomo: 43
- Santorum: 41
- Schweitzer: 40.6
Quinnipiac’s first “Presidential Thermometer” poll of the year has found that Americans have a more favorable view of Chris Christie than any other potential presidential candidate in either party. The “thermometer” poll asks respondents to rate their feeling on candidates from 0 to 100.
The poll, conducted between January 4 and January 7, sampling 1,487 registered voters, found that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has the highest thermometer score of any candidate with an average of 55.5. That’s up from a mean score of 53 that Christie saw last summer when this poll was last conducted. It’s important to note, however, that the poll was conducted before Christie’s “Bridgegate” scandal which will certainly have a negative effect on his poll numbers in the immediate future.
Coming in second was former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee with an average score of 51. That’s not surprising as the 2008 presidential candidate has always seen high favorable ratings, even among Democrats.
Coming in third was Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren with an average score of 50.7, something of a surprise considering she trails Hillary Clinton by 50+ points in primary polling. Warren is a freshman Senator, however, and 46 percent of respondents said they don’t know enough about her to form an opinion.
Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal finished fourth with an average score of 49.6, up from 45.2 last summer. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker had a score of 49.2, much higher than the 41 he saw when the poll was last conducted in July.
Hillary Clinton did not fair well as she received a mean score of 48.5, considerably down from 52.1 last summer. Worse, among independents, she registered just a 46.8. By comparison, Christie received a 56.7 mean score among independents.
Florida Senator Marco Rubio finished behind Hillary with a score of 47.1. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul also received a 47.1. Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan scored a 46.7, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush scored a 45.1, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz registered a mean score of 43.9.
(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)
Fox News, 12/14-12/16
- Clinton: 68
- Biden: 12
- Warren: 7
- Cuomo: 4
- O’Malley: 1
- Patrick: 1
Since polling began, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been well ahead of the rest of the Democratic pack and a new Fox News poll shows the former First Lady with 68 percent of the vote, her largest vote total of the year.
The poll, conducted between December 14 and December 16, sampling 412 registered Democrats, found that former New York Senator Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic pack by a whopping 56 percent over second-place finisher Joe Biden. Hillary has been polling at 64-66 percent in December and closes out 2013 with her largest vote total yet.
Vice President Joe Biden, who has seen his numbers dip from 12 percent to 8-10 in December, found himself back at 12 percent with Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer not included in the poll. For the most part, Biden has found himself between 10-13 percent since polling began.
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren finished third with 7 percent of the vote. Warren has been polling at 6-9 percent since September and, like the other candidates, has not been able to gain traction. Of course, Warren isn’t actively campaigning and has said that she isn’t running for president, although that’s also something everyone who has ever run for president has said.
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo improved the 2-3 percent we’ve seen him at this fall to 4 percent in this latest poll but is a huge longshot for the 2016 nomination. Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, who remains on the poll despite never garnering more than 2 percent of the vote, finished dead last with just one percent.
Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick also finished with just 1 percent of the vote and has not been included on most polls we’ve seen.
Clearly, Hillary Clinton is heading into 2014 as the presumed choice of the Democratic party. For all of the talk about the Democrats seeking an alternative to Clinton, not one candidate has been able to gain any traction in the polls. Joe Biden is expected to stay at around 12 percent and is highly unlikely to be a serious challenger to Hillary’s frontrunner status. Elizabeth Warren, Brian Schweitzer, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders all have their supporters but no one has been able to drum up so much as double-digit support in any polls we’ve seen thus far.
(Image courtesy of Department of Defense)
- Clinton: 66
- Biden: 8
- Warren: 7
- Cuomo: 3
- Dean: 1
- Schweitzer: 1
Although a recent McClatchy poll showed that Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren were gaining traction in the 2016 Democratic nomination race, a new Quinnipiac poll has found that the Warren campaign has stalled and Biden has fallen below double-digit support for the first time since polling began.
The poll, conducted between December 3 and December 9, sampled 1,095 registered Democrats, the largest sample size of any national Democratic nomination poll by far since polling began. As expected, Hillary Clinton continues to own a dominant 66 percent of the vote (she has been polling at 64-67 percent since the summer) but her lead grew to 58 points as the opposition weakened.
Vice President Joe Biden, a longshot candidate to say the least, had been polling at 10-12 percent consistently since the summer. Biden finished second to Clinton once again, but this time with just 8 percent of the vote.
Elizabeth Warren, whose support steadily grew from 4 percent to 7 percent to 9 percent in the most recent polls, found herself back at 7 percent, but just one point back of the VP. If Warren can pull ahead of Biden, she could regain some of that lost traction as the main alternative to the current Democratic frontrunner.
As usual, none of the other potential Democratic candidates really made a dent. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo received 3 percent of the vote, right where he has been since polling began. Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean and former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer both received 1 percent of the vote. Twelve percent of respondents remain undecided.
Biden’s candidacy is held back by his controversial nature. Just 37 percent of all voters polled said they had a favorable opinion of the Vice President. Just 70 percent of Democrats had a favorable opinion of him (compared with 92 percent for Hillary) while 79 percent of Republicans and 53 percent of independents had an unfavorable opinion of the Veep.
On the other hand, Warren, who has become a darling of the progressive youth movement, continues to suffer from a lack of name recognition. Sixty-three percent of all respondents said they didn’t know enough about the freshman Senator to have a favorable or unfavorable view, including 59 percent of Democrats, 60 percent of independents, and 70 percent of Republicans.
(Image courtesy of the Center for American Progress Action Fund)
- Clinton: 65
- Biden: 12
- Warren: 9
- Cuomo: 3
- O’Malley: 1
A new poll by McClatchy/Marist has found that Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren’s budding presidential campaign has gained some traction over the past month but former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remains the dominant frontrunner for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination.
The poll, conducted between December 3 and December 5, sampling 466 registered Democrats, shows that Clinton has maintained her consistent lead into December, earning 65 percent of the vote. Clinton has been polling in the mid-60s since the spring and continues to solidify her place as the odds-on favorite for the nomination.
Vice President Joe Biden finished a distant second with 12 percent of the vote and has consistently been polling at 10-12 percent since the summer. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley finished way back of everyone, failing to earn 5 percent of the vote.
More importantly, Elizabeth Warren’s young presidential campaign is slowly gaining momentum as the freshman senator and former Harvard economist nears double-digits, earning 9 percent of the vote in this latest poll. A Public Policy Polling survey in October showed her at 4 percent and a CNN poll in November had her at 7 percent.
Certainly, 9 percent is hardly an accomplishment when the frontrunner has 65 percent of the vote but the trends clearly show a swell of support for a Clinton alternative that isn’t even “actively” campaigning for president. With more than two years until the first primaries, Warren certainly has plenty of time to close the gap.
Clinton has been the frontrunner before, only to lose the 2008 Democratic nomination to another freshman senator with grassroots support, one Barack Obama. In 2005, Obama was a relative unknown and barely made a dent in the polls as Hillary led John Kerry and John Edwards in the race. By 2006, Obama was still only polling around 12-17 percent. You know how that race ended.
Of course, Clinton was only polling in the mid-30s, not the dominant margin she has now. Still, many Democrats are unhappy with the seeming inevitability of a Hillary Clinton nomination and are looking to alternative candidates like Elizabeth Warren and, to a lesser extent, former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.
(Image courtesy of Edward Kimmel)
- Clinton: 64
- Biden: 12
- Warren: 7
- Cuomo: 4
- O’Malley: 2
A new CNN poll has found that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has maintained her dominant 50+ point lead through November but the rest of the Democratic pack are slowly but surely beginning to trend upward as the campaign season gets underway.
The poll, conducted between November 18 and November 20 among registered Democratic voters, found Hillary with 64 percent of the vote nationally, right around where she has been since the spring. In October, a PPP poll had the former First Lady at 67 percent and a September Quinnipiac poll had her at 61 percent. A Rasmussen poll that didn’t include Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren had Clinton at 70 percent.
Vice President Joe Biden remained the only other Democrat in double digits with 12 percent of the vote. He has had between 10 and 12 percent in every national Democratic nomination poll since July so his support has been very steady. The last poll, earlier in November, had him at 10 percent.
Elizabeth Warren inched up from her 4 percent back in October and is up to 7 percent in this latest survey. The Massachusetts Senator is being touted by many liberals as a strong alternative to Hillary Clinton and has gained quite a bit of traction among young people on the web.
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has slowly inched up to 4 percent. He was polling at 2 percent in September and October and at 3 percent earlier in November. Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley didn’t make much of a dent either, garnering just 2 percent of the vote.
If Joe Biden hopes to get any traction on Hillary, it’s going to have to be through older voters, low wage workers, suburban voters, and, surprisingly, women. Biden has 12 percent support among voters 65+ and 13 percent support among voters 50+. No other candidate outside of Hillary received double-digit support from those groups. Though he trails among workers making $50K or more, 14 percent of workers making less than that preferred Biden while no other candidate outside of Clinton earned more than 5 percent of their vote. He also receives 12 percent of the vote in the suburbs, compared with 10 percent in urban areas. Surprisingly, he leads Warren among women with 11 percent to her 7 percent (Hillary has 66 percent). Warren leads Biden 13 percent to 6 percent among self-identified liberals but Biden leads Warren 13 percent to just 3 percent among moderate Democrats.
(Photo courtesy of the Massachusetts National Guard)
Public Policy Polling, 10/29-31
- Clinton 67, Biden 12, Warren 4
- Clinton 61, Biden 11, Warren 7
- Clinton 65, Biden 10, Warren 7
While some on the left began to push hard for an Elizabeth Warren candidacy in the 2016 presidential election, a new poll released by Rasmussen shows Hillary Clinton with a seemingly insurmountable 60 point lead among Democratic voters.
The poll is the latest in a series of polls that show Clinton with a 50+ percent lead. Seventy percent of respondents said that they support Hillary for the election while 10 percent said they supported Joe Biden, a distant second place. The only other person garnering any support was New York Governor Andrew Cuomo who received 3 percent.
The poll didn’t include Elizabeth Warren but other polls that did, released by PPP, Quinnipiac, and CNN, showed similar 61-67 percent support for Hillary while Warren only received 4-7 percent, less than Joe Biden’s 10-12 percent.
Of course, this far out from the election, a lot can change. At this time in 2006, as the candidates for the 2008 Democratic nomination were being mulled over, Barack Obama was polling at just 12-19 percent while Clinton led every single poll. Still, Hillary led those polls with only around 30-40 percent, not the dominant 60-70 percent she currently holds. Those polls also featured a larger amount of potential candidates, including John Edwards, Al Gore, and John Kerry. Thus far, Democrats have not found any seemingly viable alternatives.
In general election polling, Clinton doesn’t have the same mass support. Although the Republican polls show a virtual tie between Chris Christie and Rand Paul, with other candidates like Ricky Rubio, Paul Ryan, Jeb Bush, and Ted Cruz also drawing double-digit support, the latest polls from Quinnipiac show a virtual tie between Christie and Clinton. Clinton does lead Paul and Ryan by a healthy 9 percent and Cruz by a strong 15 percent though. A recent Rasmussen poll showed a similar virtual tie between Christie and Clinton while an NBC News poll showed a 10 point lead for Clinton over Christie.
Clearly, Hillary is the odds-on favorite to win the nomination but that inevitability makes many on the left concerned. Warren is the most likely alternative from the left, very popular among young voters and the media. She’s not as inexperienced as some think. Although she’s only been in the senate for all of 11 months, she has served as an economist in George Bush’s and Barack Obama’s cabinet, helping sort out the financial mess, since 2008.
(Image courtesy of Marc Nozell)