The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: Independent Voters

Independents Don’t Like Any GOP Candidate, Warm to Hillary: New Poll

Quinnipiac, 6/12-6/16
Iowa Independents Favorables

  • Clinton: 52 favorable – 39 unfavorable
  • Huckabee: 35-31
  • Ryan: 33-29
  • Paul: 30-28
  • Christie: 30-34
  • Bush: 22-35

We all know that Democrats vote for Democrats and Republicans vote for Republicans so most general elections come down to the independent voters. If the independent vote decides the 2016 election, the Republicans are in big trouble according to a new Quinnipiac poll.

The poll, conducted between June 12 and June 16, sampling 1,277 registered Iowa voters, found that Hillary Clinton has a favorable rating of 52 among independent voters while not a single Republican candidate owns a favorable rating over 35 percent.

Among independent voters, presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton owns a 52 percent favorable rating and a 39 percent unfavorable rating, good for a 13-point differential. That is right around what a March Quinnipiac poll showed when Clinton scored a 50 favorable-40 unfavorable.

For the Republican side, things aren’t so rosy.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee owns the highest favorable rate among independent voters with just 35 percent saying they have a favorable view of the Fox News host. Just 31 percent they had an unfavorable view of the 2008 candidate, so at least he is still at +4.

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan scored a 33 percent favorable rate among independents but just a 29 percent unfavorable so a lot of voters either have no opinion on the 2012 Vice Presidential candidate or don’t know enough to form an opinion yet.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul owns a 30 percent favorable rate among independents and a 28 percent unfavorable for a reasonable +2.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, however, once hailed as a moderate who could bring more general election voters into the GOP tent, only has a 30 percent favorability among independents while 34 percent have an unfavorable view of the scandal-stricken guv.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, also considered a moderate who could appeal to more voters, actually performed the worst, scoring just a 22 percent favorable rating while 35 percent of independents said they have an unfavorable view of the younger Bush brother.

(Image courtesy of Marc Nozell)

Uh Oh: Independents Abandon Hillary in New Poll

PPP, 5/9-5/11
North Carolina Independents

  • Clinton: 32, Paul: 46
  • Clinton: 33, Bush: 40
  • Clinton: 36, Christie: 39
  • Clinton: 39, Huckabee: 46

A new PPP North Carolina poll echoes the sentiment of many national voters toward Hillary Clinton over the past few months – run!

The poll, conducted between May 9 and May 11, sampling 877 registered North Carolina voters, found that while presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has been able to maintain her slim lead over the Republican pack, independents are abandoning her in droves.

In a hypothetical 2016 matchup against Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, Clinton now leads by just 1 percent, placing ahead of the Tea Party favorite by a margin of 45-44. In the last poll, conducted in April, Clinton led by four points.

This slight shift is the direct result of independents moving away from Clinton. In March, Clinton led Paul among independents by a margin of 48-39. In April, Paul took the lead among independents by a margin of 40-35. Now, Paul leads Clinton among independent voters by a whopping margin of 46-32. That’s a huge turnaround, especially over just a two-month span.

The same is seen against other candidates. Clinton leads former Florida Governor Jeb Bush by a 45-42 margin. Among independents, however, Clinton led Bush by a 46-38 margin in March. In April, Bush led Clinton among independents by a 45-39 margin and now leads her by a 40-35 margin.

Clinton leads New Jersey Governor Chris Christie by a 44-40 margin. Among independent voters, Clinton led Christie in March, 39-38. In April, Christie took the lead at 45-38 and currently leads among independent votes by a 39-36 margin.

Clinton also leads former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee by a 47-43 margin. Among independents, though, Huckabee leads her by a 46-39 margin and saw a 44-38 lead in April despite Clinton leading 48-34 in March.

Clearly, independents are either running toward Republican alternatives or simply running from Hillary. Perhaps the ongoing Benghazi accusations are once again hurting her standing or maybe it’s a case of Obama’s low approval numbers weighing down her candidacy.

(Image courtesy of Foreign and Commonwealth Office)