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Trump Leads Louisiana and Kansas

Can’t stop, won’t stop, that should be Donald Trumps new slogan. The latest polls by the Trafalgar Group in Kansas and the University of New Orleans in Louisiana have been extremely favorable to Trump.

Kansas

  • Donald Trump – 35%
  • Ted Cruz – 29%
  • Marco Rubio – 17%
  • John Kasich – 13%

Louisiana

  • Donald Trump – 38%
  • Ted Cruz – 26%
  • Marco Rubio – 11%
  • John Kasich – 5%

Trump is looking good at this point. Despite a lousy performance in Thursday’s GOP debate, he still topped these two polls. In the debate, Trump devolved the discussion into a penis talk, got caught changing positions numerous times, and look like a unprepared candidate.

However, to Trump’s advantage, both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio have completely unable to capitalize on their opponents mistakes. Every time Trump says something stupid, both Cruz and Rubio get sucked into a contest of the idiots.

According to the GOP, which is imploding as we speak, various members of the Republican Party are looking to rally behind Cruz. Previously, they were looking to work with Rubio, but he has since been deemed a failure. Even with the backing of the party, Cruz seems unable to take Trump down and the GOP will have to come to terms with the fact that Trump will be the party’s nominee heading into the general election.

Photo credit: Raw Story / Screenshot.

Final 2014 Senate Polls Update and Predictions: New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Alaska, North Carolina, Louisiana, Arkansas, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky

With Election Day just hours away, let’s take a look at how all of the key swing races are shaping up and what we can expect the Senate to look like come January.

In New Hampshire, we are seeing a slew of new polls with very different results so we have to look at the most reliable pollsters. CNN/Opinion Research have Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen leading Republican Scott Brown by 2, CBS/New York Times have her leading by 5, and New England College has Scott Brown leading by 1. RealClearPolitics has Shaheen leading by a point on average and that appears to be the case heading into Tuesday. Look for New Hampshire to have a very tight race, but Shaheen remains a very slight favorite.

In Iowa, Quinnipiac shows a 47-47 tie between Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley while CNN/Opinion Research have Ernst up by 2 and YouGov has Braley up by 1. RCP has Ernst leading Braley but a little over one point on average and she appears to have a very slight lead heading into Election Day.

The race in Colorado has gotten closer as a new Quinnipiac poll has Republican Cory Gardner leading incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall by 2 percent, as does Survey USA. Gardner has led all but one poll over the last month and is the slight favorite to win Colorado for the GOP.

In North Carolina, Democrat Kay Hagan appears to have a slight 2-3 point lead over Republican Thom Tillis according to a new CNN/Opinion Research poll, a YouGov poll, and a PPP poll. NBC News and Survey USA have the race tied. According to RCP, Hagan has a very slight lead over Tillis but is currently a slight favorite to hold on to her job.

In Georgia, Republican David Perdue leads Democrat Michelle Nunn by 3 percent in a new Survey USA poll, 4 percent in an NBC News poll, and 2 percent in a YouGov poll. That sounds about right and the Republican is a slight favorite to win. One thing to watch, however, is that if Perdue fails to win 50 percent of the vote, there will be a run-off election between the two without Libertarian Amanda Swafford on the ballot.

In Alaska, it doesn’t look good for incumbent Democrat Mark Begich who trails Republican Dan Sullivan by 4 percent in a new CBS News/NY Times poll and 6 points in a new CNN/Opinion Research survey. Sullivan is the odds-on favorite to win Alaska back for the GOP.

In Louisiana, Democrat Mary Landrieu continues to lead Tuesday’s open primary against Republican David Cassidy and fellow Republican Rob Maness but that’s a moot point. Landrieu and Cassidy will face off in a runoff on December 6 and Cassidy leads Landrieu by 5 percent in an NBC News/Marist poll and 4 percent in a CBS News/NY Times poll and is the odds-on favorite to win Louisiana for the GOP.

Kentucky was close for a while but that’s no longer the case. A new NBC News/Marist poll has incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell leading Democrat Alison Grimes by 9 percent while a new PPP poll has McConnell up by 8. Don’t look for Kentucky to turn blue on Tuesday.

The Kansas race has drawn closer and a new Survey USA poll has independent Greg Orman leading Republican incumbent Pat Roberts by 2 percent while an NBC News poll has him up by 1. Orman appears to be a very, very slight favorite and says he will caucus with whichever party is in control of the Senate.

In Arkansas, Republican Tom Cotton looks to be the overwhelming favorite to unseat Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor. Cotton leads Pryor by 8 points in a new PPP poll and 7 percent in a new Rasmussen poll.

Predictions:

The Democrats are slightly favored to hold on to their seats in New Hampshire and North Carolina.

The Republicans are likely to win Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska, Kentucky, Louisiana, Colorado, and slightly favored to win Iowa.

Greg Orman is slightly favored to win Kansas and would likely caucus with the Republicans, assuming they win the majority.

2014 Senate Polls Update: Iowa, Kansas, Georgia, Michigan

Iowa: Quinnipiac

  • Ernst (R): 49
  • Braley (D): 45

Georgia: Survey USA

  • Perdue (R): 48
  • Nunn (D): 45
  • Swafford (L): 3

Kansas: NBC News/Marist

  • Orman (I): 44
  • Roberts (R): 42

Michigan: Mitchell Research

  • Peters (D): 52
  • Land (R): 38

Polls are being released daily, sometimes even more frequently, in the states with the tightest senate races and we are getting a pretty good idea of who stands where. Let’s take a look at the latest numbers from four of the most competitive races in the nation.

In Iowa, we are seeing some very contradictory poll results as a Quinnipiac poll of likely voters has Republican Joni Ernst up by 4 while a Loras College poll of likely voters has Democrat Bruce Braley up by 1. RealClearPolitics has Ernst leading by an average margin of 47-45. According to FiveThirtyEight, Ernst has a 67 percent chance of winning the race while Braley has a 33 percent chance.

In Georgia, three new polls have Republican David Perdue leading Democrat Michelle Nunn by 2-3 percent with Libertarian candidate Amanda Swafford pulling in 3-4 percent. If no candidate gets 50 percent plus one vote there will be a runoff election in January. A runoff race would definitely change things but right now FiveThirtyEight gives both Nunn and Perdue a 50-50 chance at winning, the only such race in the country.

In Kansas, independent candidate Greg Orman leads Republican incumbent Pat Roberts by 2 percent in a new Survey USA poll and by 1 percent in a new NBC News/Marist poll. FiveThirtyEight gives Orman a 51 percent chance to defeat the Republican.

In Michigan, in a race that was separated by 2-3 percent just two months ago, Democrat Gary Peters has absolutely blown open his lead, leading Republican Terri Lynn Land by 14 percent in the latest Mitchell Research poll and 15 percent in the latest Detroit News poll. According to FiveThirtyEight, Peters has a 98 percent chance to win this race.

2014 Senate Polls Update: North Carolina, Colorado, Kansas, Georgia, Iowa

North Carolina: PPP

  • Hagan (D): 47
  • Tillis (R): 44

Georgia: Atlanta Journal-Constitution

  • Perdue (R): 44
  • Nunn (D): 42

Colorado: Quinnipiac

  • Gardner (R): 46
  • Udall (D): 41

Iowa: Quinnipiac

  • Ernst (R): 48
  • Braley (D): 46

Kansas: Rasmussen

  • Orman (I): 49
  • Roberts (R): 44

We know that the closer it is to election time, the more accurate the polls become. We’ve seen a flurry of polls from the country’s tightest senate races released this week and we have a better idea of what’s to come in November. Let’s take a look at how the most competitive senate races are shaping up.

In North Carolina, three new polls have Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan leading Republican challenger Thom Tillis by 2-3 percent while a Civitas poll has the race tied. The PPP poll with Hagan up by 3 and the Rasmussen poll with Hagan up by 2 have the lowest margin of error and are more reliable so it appears that Hagan has a slight lead heading into November.

In Georgia, where Democrat Michelle Nunn was pulling ahead by 1-3 percent, a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll has Republican David Perdue leading by 2 percent. Perdue had led nearly every single poll between the summer and October before he took a hit over his outsourcing practices when he was the CEO of Dollar General. Perdue remains a slight favorite to win but Nunn is doing everything she can to stay competitive.

In Colorado, where incumbent Democrat Mark Udall looked like a lock to win, Republican challenger Cory Gardner is now the odds-on favorite. Gardner has now led nine straight polls and leads the latest Quinnipiac poll by 5 percent. The last nine polls all have Gardner up anywhere from 2-7 percent and he appears to be the frontrunner.

In Iowa, the race remains tight but Republican Joni Ernst has now led five straight polls with a slight 1-4 percent lead over Democrat Bruce Braley. The latest Quinnipiac poll has Ernst up by 2 so Braley is certainly still in it but failing to gain traction.

That brings us to Kansas, where the polling is a bloody mess. Since the beginning of the month, incumbent Republican Pat Roberts had led a CNN poll by 1 and a Fox News poll by 5 while independent challenger Greg Orman has led a Survey USA poll by 5, a PPP poll by 3, and a Rasmussen poll by 5. Since the Fox News poll was conducted online, and is less reliable, I’d be more inclined to lean with the Rasmussen numbers. Orman has now led Roberts by 5+ percent in eight of the 13 polls out of Kansas.

2014 Senate Polls Update: North Carolina, South Dakota, Kansas, Georgia, Iowa

Iowa: Loras College

  • Ernst (R): 42
  • Braley (D): 42

Georgia: PPP

  • Perdue (R): 48
  • Nunn (D): 45

Kansas: Survey USA

  • Orman (I): 47
  • Roberts (R): 42

South Dakota: Survey USA

  • Rounds (R): 35
  • Pressler (I): 32
  • Weiland (D): 28

North Carolina: Rasmussen

  • Hagan (D): 48
  • Tillis (R): 46

With campaign ads, stump speeches, and debates intensifying around the country, it seems like every Senate race is constantly changing. This week we have more new numbers to comb through, let’s take a look at how the tightest races around the nation are shaping up.

Iowa remains arguably the closest race of them all with the latest Loras College poll finding a tie in the race between Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley. Three of the last seven polls have had the race completely tied, two polls had Ernst slightly leading by two, and one poll had Braley slightly leading by 1.

In Georgia, Republican candidate David Perdue has now led Democrat Michelle Nunn in seven straight polls but has been unable to open up a big lead. He has now led by 3-4 percent in four straight polls. He certainly has the edge but Nunn is far from out of it.

In Kansas, independent candidate Greg Orman has now led every head-to-head poll and leads Republican incumbent Pat Roberts by 5 percent in the latest Survey USA poll. Orman has now led by 5-10 percent in seven of eight polls out of Kansas since August and is the clear frontrunner.

South Dakota’s three-way race is suddenly getting interesting. Independent candidate Larry Pressler didn’t figure to make much of a dent, earning just 12 percent in a CBS News/NYT poll but a new Survey USA poll has him within striking distance of Republican Mike Rounds. Rounds leads with 35 percent, Pressler is at 32, and Democrat Rick Weiland trails with 28 percent.

In North Carolina, incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan has now led Republican challenger Thom Tillis in 12 straight polls but has not been able to widen her lead. She leads Tillis by 2 percent in a new Rasmussen poll, 4 percent in an NBC News poll, and 3 percent in a CNN poll.

2014 Senate Polls Update: New Hampshire, Colorado, Kansas, Iowa

New Hampshire: New England College

  • Shaheen (D): 47
  • Brown (R): 47

Colorado: Rasmussen

  • Gardner (R): 48
  • Udall (D): 47

Iowa: PPP

  • Ernst (R): 45
  • Braley (D): 43

Kansas: Rasmussen

  • Orman (I): 45
  • Roberts (R): 40

The most competitive Senate races in the country are seeing Republicans make major headway, except Kansas where an independent candidate is surging. Let’s take a look at the latest polls to see what we can make of the races in New Hampshire, Colorado, Kansas, and Iowa.

In New Hampshire, a new New England College poll has the race between Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen and Republican challenger Scott Brown tied at 47 to 47. A CNN poll released in September also had the race tied at 48-48. Shaheen had led every poll out of New Hampshire until that CNN poll and it appears that Brown has made what should have been a Democratic lock into a very competitive race.

Colorado has a similar situation with Republican challenger Cory Gardner pulling ahead after Democratic incumbent Mark Udall had led just about every Colorado poll until September. New polls from Rasmussen and USA Today both have Gardner with a slight 1 percent lead as the calendar turns to October.

In Iowa, where the race was a dead tie earlier in September, a new Des Moines Register poll has Republican Joni Ernst leading Democrat Bruce Braley by 6 percent while a PPP poll has the GOPer up by 2. Ernst has led three of the last five polls and tied Braley in the other two.

In Kansas, Democrat Chad Taylor has dropped out of the race, leaving independent candidate Greg Orman as the odds-on favorite. With Taylor off the ballot, Orman has now led Republican Pat Roberts by 5-6 percent in every head-to-head poll, including surveys from Fox News, Rasmussen, and USA Today.

2014 Senate Polls Update: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Kansas, Colorado, Iowa

Updated RealClearPolitics Averages:

Georgia:

  • Perdue (R): 45.9
  • Nunn (D): 42.6

Michigan:

  • Peters (D): 44.7
  • Land (R): 39.3

North Carolina:

  • Hagan (D): 45.7
  • Tillis (R): 40.7

 

New Hampshire:

  • Shaheen (D): 48.3
  • Brown (R): 43.3

Kansas:

  • Orman (I): 38.5
  • Roberts (R): 37.3

Colorado:

  • Udall (D): 44
  • Roberts (R): 43.4

Iowa:

  • Braley (D): 43.5
  • Ernst (R): 43.4

With Election Day roughly six weeks away, the polls from the tightest senate races in the country are being released seemingly daily. Let’s take a look at the closest races around the nation to see if we can make sense of who’s up and who’s down.

In Georgia, a new Rasmussen poll has found that Republican David Perdue leads Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn by a 46-41 margin. RealClearPolitics reports that Perdue has averaged a 46-42.5 lead over Nunn since the end of August and appears to be the significant frontrunner.

In Michigan, Democrat Gary Peters has now led Republican nominee Terri Lynn Land in five straight polls and RCP reports that Peters has averaged a 45-39 lead since late August.

In North Carolina, things suddenly seem to be swinging towards Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan, who has now led Republican challenger Thom Tillis in six straight polls. RCP reports that Hagan is averaging a 46-41 lead over Tillis in September.

In New Hampshire, incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen seems to be headed for a victory over Republican nominee Scott Brown as she has yet to trail in any poll out of the Granite State. RCP reports that Shaheen is averaging a 48-43 lead over Brown since mid-August.

Kansas is an interesting case. The Supreme Court has finally allowed Democrat Chad Taylor to remove his name from the ballot after he dropped out weeks ago. Now, independent candidate Greg Orman is the favorite to unseat incumbent Republican Pat Roberts, although he led by as much as 7 percent even with Taylor on the ballot. Orman has vowed to caucus with whichever party is in the majority.

Colorado is getting interesting. After incumbent Mark Udall led Republican challenger Cory Gardner in every poll between mid-July and early September, two new polls have Gardner surging ahead. With the latest USA Today poll putting Gardner up by 1, RCP has this race essentially deadlocked at 44-44.

Iowa appears to be as competitive as any other state. After a few polls showed Democrat Bruce Braley take a slight lead and a Quinnipiac poll had Republican Joni Ernst up, the latest Fox News and Rasmussen polls have the race as a tie. Five of the last nine polls have now had this race dead even.

Sam Brownback Has Bankrupted State So Much He Trails Democrat Paul Davis by 10 Points in Deep Red Kansas

Rasmussen, 8/6-8/7
Kansas Governor

  • Davis (D): 51
  • Brownback (R): 41

Sam Brownback ran on one of the most conservative platforms in the country when he won his 2010 gubernatorial election against Democrat Tom Holland in 2010 by a huge 63-32 margin. Four years later, his policies have crippled the state and the man who won his first election by a landslide is now trailing Democratic challenger Paul Davis by double-digits in one of the reddest states in the country.

A new Rasmussen poll, conducted between August 6 and August 7, sampling 750 likely voters, found that Paul Davis leads Sam Brownback by 10 points. Two Survey USA polls conducted in June and July also had Davis leading by 6-8 percent.

Davis, the Minority Leader in the Kansas House of Representatives, is quickly becoming the favorite to win the state and it’s no surprise given how unsuccessful Brownback has been.

The Topeka Capital-Journal reports that, “The state’s bond rating recently was downgraded over concerns the state would have to burn through its rainy day funds to make up for revenues lost to his tax cuts.”

“The FBI has launched an inquiry into whether members of Brownback’s inner political circle tried to pressure companies to hire certain lobbyists close to Brownback’s administration,” the paper reports.

Politics USA reports that, “Governor Sam Brownback and the Republican legislature were so confident that slashing safety nets, cutting education, and spending a budget surplus on tax cuts for the rich would produce an economic bonanza, they gave the wealthy well over a billion dollars in unfunded tax cuts that has the state’s economy starved of revenue. However, despite Republican warnings the state will be bankrupt in two years, more than 100 Kansas Republicans swearing to help replace Brownback with a Democrat for governor, and a credit agency downgrading Kansas credit, a noted conservative economist lied to support Brownback’s tax cuts as a job creating bonanza. Kansas is lagging behind the rest of the nation in creating jobs besides facing a revenue shortfall of massive proportions.”

Because Brownback is in trouble, the national Democratic Party has now turned much of its attention to this race, unlike the 2010 race when Brownback easily coasted to a win.