The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: Louisiana

Trump Leads Louisiana and Kansas

Can’t stop, won’t stop, that should be Donald Trumps new slogan. The latest polls by the Trafalgar Group in Kansas and the University of New Orleans in Louisiana have been extremely favorable to Trump.

Kansas

  • Donald Trump – 35%
  • Ted Cruz – 29%
  • Marco Rubio – 17%
  • John Kasich – 13%

Louisiana

  • Donald Trump – 38%
  • Ted Cruz – 26%
  • Marco Rubio – 11%
  • John Kasich – 5%

Trump is looking good at this point. Despite a lousy performance in Thursday’s GOP debate, he still topped these two polls. In the debate, Trump devolved the discussion into a penis talk, got caught changing positions numerous times, and look like a unprepared candidate.

However, to Trump’s advantage, both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio have completely unable to capitalize on their opponents mistakes. Every time Trump says something stupid, both Cruz and Rubio get sucked into a contest of the idiots.

According to the GOP, which is imploding as we speak, various members of the Republican Party are looking to rally behind Cruz. Previously, they were looking to work with Rubio, but he has since been deemed a failure. Even with the backing of the party, Cruz seems unable to take Trump down and the GOP will have to come to terms with the fact that Trump will be the party’s nominee heading into the general election.

Photo credit: Raw Story / Screenshot.

Republican Bill Cassidy Has Dominant Lead Over Sen. Mary Landrieu in Louisiana Poll

Vox Populi, 11/16-11/17
Louisiana Run-off

  • Cassidy: 53
  • Landrieu: 42

Gravis Marketing, 11/12-11/14

  • Cassidy: 59
  • Landrieu: 38

The tough beats aren’t over just yet for the Democrats as they stand to lose yet another seat to the GOP.

Two new polls have Republican challenger Bill Cassidy leading Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu by double-digits in Louisiana’s run-off election scheduled for December 6.

A new Vox Populi poll, conducted between November 16 and November 17, sampling 761 likely voters with a margin of error of 3.6 percent, has Cassidy leading Landrieu by 11 points, a 53-42 margin.

Among those, just 33 percent of respondents said they are “definitely” voting for Landrieu while 9 percent say they’re leaning toward Landrieu. On the flip side, 45 percent of respondents said they’re “definitely” voting for Cassidy while another 8 percent said they’re leaning toward the Republican.

An earlier Gravis Marketing poll, conducted between November 12 and November 14, sampling 643 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.0 percent, suggests that it could be even worse than that for Landrieu as it shows Cassidy leading by a whopping 21 percent, a 59-38 margin.

That poll found that 61 percent of likely voters disapprove of President Obama though incredibly their sample size was made up of 44 percent Democrats, 36 percent Republicans, and 20 percent independents.

Looks like another tough loss for the Democrats as they turn the page and look to 2016 when the pendulum could very well swing the other way.

Bill Cassidy Has Strong Lead Over Mary Landrieu in Louisiana Senate Run-Off Race

NBC News/Marist

  • Cassidy (R): 50
  • Landrieu (D): 45

USA Today/Suffolk

  • Cassidy (R): 48
  • Landrieu (D): 41

As expected, no candidate received more than 50 percent of the vote in Louisiana’s open primary, thus triggering a run-off election between the top two vote-getters.

On December 6, incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu will go head-to-head with Republican Bill Cassidy to determine the state’s senate seat.

Landrieu led the open primary with 42 percent of the vote while Cassidy received 41 percent and fellow Republican Rob Maness received 14 percent.

With Maness out of the race, the scales have tipped heavily into Cassidy’s favor.

Aside from getting just 42 percent of the vote compared to 55 percent for the top two Republicans, head-to-head polls show Landrieu is in serious trouble as the run-off approaches.

An NBC News/Marist poll has Cassidy leading by 5 percent, a USA Today/Suffolk poll has Cassidy leading by 7, and a CBS News/New York Times poll has Cassidy up by 4.

While that in itself is a solid lead, we also saw on Tuesday just how much polls were skewed toward Democrats.

According to FiveThirtyEight, the average poll was skewed 4 percent toward Democrats, the largest Democratic bias recorded since 1990. Polling bias obviously didn’t help as the Democrats were slaughtered on election night, though part of the bias may have been related to a low voter turnout among Democrats.

This means that Cassidy is likely even more ahead of Landrieu, especially given the 55 percent of the vote the two GOPers received in the open primary. Landrieu also has just a 44 percent favorable rating in her state while 50 percent of Louisiana residents have an unfavorable view of the three-term senator.

2014 Senate Polls Update: Iowa, North Carolina, Louisiana, Arkansas

Iowa: Des Moines Register

  • Ernst (R): 44
  • Braley (D): 38

North Carolina: CNN/Opinion Research

  • Hagan (D): 46
  • Tillis (R): 43

Arkansas: Rasmussen

  • Cotton (R): 47
  • Pryor (D): 40

Louisiana: CNN/Opinion Research

  • Cassidy (R): 50
  • Landrieu (D): 47

With elections just over a month away, we have a ton of polling to look at to get a good idea of what is happening in some of the tightest races in the country. Let’s take a look at the latest numbers to see how things are shaping up as Election Day nears.

In Iowa, where Republican Joni Ernst has been neck and neck with Democrat Bruce Braley, Ernst has taken a 6 percent lead according to a new Des Moines Register poll. That’s the second poll this month, the last one being a Quinnipiac poll released in mid-September, to show Ernst up by six.

In North Carolina, Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan has maintained a 2-5 percent lead but has been unable to pull away from Republican challenger Thom Tillis. Hagan has led every poll released in September and they all have her a few points ahead of the challenger with about a month of campaigning left.

In Arkansas, Republican Tom Cotton has led all but two polls since May and leads the latest Rasmussen poll by 7 percent over Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor. Though Pryor has shown signs of life and Cotton has not opened up a huge lead in any of the polling we’ve seen, Cotton looks to be the odds-on frontrunner to win Arkansas for the GOP.

Louisiana is interesting. Rather than a general election, the state will hold an open senate primary on Election Day before the top two vote-getters face off in a runoff in December. While Democratic incumbent leads Republican Bill Cassidy and fellow GOPer Rob Maness in the open primary polls, she trails Cassidy by 3 points in the latest general election poll. It looks like Louisiana is likely to go back in the red come December.

Shock: Hillary Leads Republicans in Deep Red Louisiana, Dominates Governor Bobby Jindal

PPP, 6/26-6/29
Louisiana

  • Clinton: 48, Jindal: 44
  • Clinton: 46, Christie: 42
  • Clinton: 46, Cruz: 45
  • Clinton: 46, Paul: 46
  • Clinton: 45, Huckabee: 46
  • Clinton: 45, Bush: 46

Even as Hillary Clinton continues to come under fire for a rough book tour and launch, the presumptive Democratic nominee still leads many Republicans in deep red states like Louisiana and trails the rest by a point at most.

According to a new PPP poll, conducted between June 26 and June 29, sampling 664 registered Louisiana voters, Clinton leads the state’s governor Bobby Jindal by a huge 53-39 margin.

Back in February, the hypothetical race between the former First Lady and the Bayou State governor was much closer with Clinton leading Jindal by a margin of 47-44.

Of course, almost no one in Louisiana thinks Jindal should run for president with just 17 percent supporting his candidacy and 72 percent saying he should sit it out.

The other Republicans do considerably better but still look to have a difficult time winning a state that is usually guaranteed to fall in the red column.

Clinton leads New Jersey Governor Chris Christie by a margin of 46-42. Back in February, before Christie’s scandal-plagued year really began, the Jersey guv led the former Secretary of State with a 44-42 margin.

Against Texas Senator Ted Cruz, a rising star the neighboring Lone Star State, Clinton leads with a margin of 46-45.

Clinton is tied with Kentucky Senator Rand Paul with each potential candidate receiving 46 percent of the vote. In February, Paul led the former New York Senator with a 47-43 margin.

Clinton trails former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee though has cut her 5 percent deficit from February down to a 46-45 margin.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, who led Clinton with a strong seven point margin in February, now only leads the presumptive Democratic nominee with a margin of 46-45.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)