The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: Mark Begich

Alaska Senate: Dan Sullivan (R) Holds a Safe Lead over Mark Begich (D)

Rasmussen Reports, 10/27 – 10/30

Alaska Senate

  • Dan Sullivan – Republican – 47%
  • Mark Begich – Democrat – 42%
  • Other – 5%
  • Undecided – 6%

The latest political poll for the Alaskan Senate election has been released by Rasmussen Reports. The poll asked 887 likely voters who they would vote for if an election were to occur today. 47 percent of voters said that they would vote for the Republican Dan Sullivan, while 42 percent chose the Democrat Mark Begich. In addition, 5 percent of voters liked a different candidate and 6 percent were undecided.

An Oct. 8-12 poll had the Democrats in a more favorable position. In that poll, Sullivan led with 48 percent of the vote to Begich’s 45 percent.

The demographics for this poll were standard for Alaska. Gender was split at an even 50 percent. 35 percent of voters identified as Republican, 17 percent as Democrat, and 48 percent as a different party. 81 percent of voters were white. The majority of voters, 53 percent, were aged 40-64.

In terms of favorability, 47 percent of voters see Begich as a favorable candidate. However, 50 percent see him as unfavorable, and amongst that number, 37 percent see him as very unfavorable.

On the other hand, 50 percent of voters see Sullivan as a favorable candidate, while only 47 percent see him as unfavorable. 37 percent of voters saw him as a very unfavorable candidate.

Only 18 percent of voters admitted that they had already voted, while 82 percent said that they did not. Also, 91 percent said that they were certain to vote.

Photo credit: KTUU.

Alaskan Senate: Republicans Hold a Minor Lead down the Stretch

Rasmussen Reports, 10/8 – 10/12

Alaskan Senate

  • Dan Sullivan – Republican – 48%
  • Mark Begich – Democrat – 45%
  • Other – 3%
  • Undecided – 3%

According to a Rasmussen Reports poll, Dan Sullivan the Republican continues to lead over his Democrat challenger, and the current incumbent Mark Begich. The poll asked 700 likely voters who they would vote for in an election. 48 percent of voters stated that they would vote for Sullivan, while 45 percent voiced their support for Begich.

In the previous poll conducted in late September, Sullivan tallied 48 percent of the vote to Begich’s 43. Begich has made a slight increase down the stretch and when you adjust the poll for the 4 percent margin of error, it is a very close election.

Sullivan has maintained his slight lead since August. In July, Begich had the lead and at one point, a CBS News poll had him 12 points ahead. Since then, his lead has evaporated.

Begich is seen as the less favorable candidate of the two. His current favorability rating is 47 percent to Sullivan’s 50 percent. Both candidates are recognizable in the eyes of the voters.

It is worth noting that 40 percent of the voters identified as Republican, only 18 percent as Democrat, and 42 percent as a different party. The results may be skewed due to the sample size and the abundance of Republican voters who participated in this poll.

Sullivan is trying to lambast his opponent for being unproductive in office. He has focused his recent attacks on a claim that Begich has only ever passed one law, the naming of a building, while he has passed 13 bills, one of which gave a large amount of federal land back to Alaska.

Photo credit: Politico.

2014 Senate Polls Update: Michigan, North Carolina, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky

Arkansas: USA Today

  • Pryor (D): 45
  • Cotton (R): 43

Georgia: SurveyUSA

  • Perdue (R): 46
  • Nunn (D): 45

Kentucky: Reuters

  • McConnell (R): 46
  • Grimes (D): 42

Michigan: Rasmussen

  • Peters (D): 41
  • Land (R): 39

Alaska: PPP

  • Sullivan (R): 45
  • Begich (D): 42

North Carolina: PPP

  • Hagan (D): 46
  • Tillis (R): 42

This is the peak of the campaign season and voters all over the nation are increasingly tortured by copious amounts of campaign ads on television, radio, and front lawns. There’s been quite a bit of movement in the polls lately, so clearly these are having some effect. Let’s take a look at the latest numbers from some of the most competitive races in the Senate.

In Georgia, where Republican David Perdue had led Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn by as many as 9-10 points, a new Survey USA poll has Perdue up by just 1 percent. In August, Survey USA had him up by 9 and in early September he was up by just 3 so this could be a trend. A recent WSB-TV/Landmark poll even had Nunn up by a few points. This one is not over by a longshot.

In Kentucky, Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes has now finished within 4-5 percent of Republican incumbent Senator and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in six of the last seven polls. The Democrats are looking to spend a ton of money to try to unseat McConnell so Grimes is definitely still in the race.

In Michigan, where Democrat Gary Peters had been leading Republican Terri Lynn Land by as much a 9-10 percent, Peters has now led Land by just 2-3 percent in three of the last four polls. Looks like Land is building some momentum heading into October.

In Alaska, we can officially say Mark Begich is in trouble. Not only has he trailed Republican challenger Dan Sullivan in every poll since July, Nate Silver points out that Alaska tends to overpoll Democrats in Alaska by an average of 7-8 percent. That means that while Begich is down 3-6 percent, he may actually be down as much as 10 or more.

In North Carolina, where Republican Thom Tillis has led a handful of polls in July and early August, incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan has now led seven straight polls and RealClearPolitics reports she leads Tillis by an average of 5 percent.

In Arkansas, where Republican challenger Tom Cotton had led four straight polls, a new USA Today poll has incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor up by 2. Arkansas is hard to judge but considering Cotton has led 10 of the last 12 polls, he looks to have the edge.

All in all, Perdue, McConnell, Cotton, and Sullivan are all Republicans likely to win their races while Hagan and Peters are Democrats likely to win theirs.

2014 Senate Polls Update: Iowa, Alaska, Arkansas, Kansas, Michigan

There was a handful of polls tracking the closest 2014 Senate races released this week and presented good and bad news for both parties as Election Day nears.

Iowa is by far the closest race of any this election cycle as two new polls show a dead heat between Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley. Since July, four of five polls had the race as an even tie while a CBS News/New York Times poll released in early July had Ernst leading by one point.

Arkansas is another state that could really go either way. After Republican challenger Tom Cotton led two July polls by 2 percent, incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor leads Cotton by one point in the latest Rasmussen poll so this race is a virtual tie as well.

In Alaska, where incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Begich led by 4 percent in the last PPP poll in July, a new Rasmussen survey shows Republican challenger Dan Sullivan leading Begich by 2 percent.

In Michigan, Democrat Gary Peters appears to be the frontrunner over Republican Terri Lynn Land, the only question is by how much. While a Rasmussen poll and EPIC-MRA poll show Peters up by 6 percent, a Harper poll only has Peters leading by 1 percent and a Mitchell Research poll has Peters up by 2.

In Kansas we see an interesting race as it is one of the few three-way races in the country. Republican incumbent Pat Roberts currently leads Democrat Chad Taylor and independent challenger Greg Orman but Orman is gaining ground.

The latest Survey USA poll has Roberts with 37 percent, Taylor with 32 percent, and Orman with 20 percent.