The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: Mark Pryor

Arkansas Senate: Republican Candidate Cotton Pulls Ahead

Rasmussen Reports, 24/9 – 25/9

Arkansas Senate

  • Tom Cotton – Republican – 47%
  • Mark Pryor – Democrat – 40%
  • Other – 5%
  • Undecided – 8%

Republican Tom Cotton has taken the lead against his opponent, the Democrat Mark Pryor for the Arkansas Senate. Rasmussen Reports conducted a poll that asked 750 likely voters who they would vote for in an election. Cotton secured 47 percent of the votes, while the incumbent Pryor received 40 percent. In May, the split was 47 to 43 and in August the split was 43 to 44. Arkansas is considered a Republican leaning state by Rasmussen, but Cotton is struggling to hold a lead over his opponent and this lead likely won’t last until November.

Pryor achieved a favorable rating of 45 percent and a non-favorable rating of 49 percent. His opponent edged him out with a 51 percent favorable rating and a non-favorable rating of 41 percent. Only 1 percent of the voters have never heard of Pryor, while 3 percent have never heard of Cotton. There is no clear advantage in terms of name recognition and both candidates have an equal chance on this front.

The demographics on the poll were standard. 31 percent of the voters identified as Republican, 35 percent as Democrat, and 34 percent as a different party. Despite this even party split, 60 percent of the voters believed that the war on woman was a politically charged slogan and 73 percent of the voters disapproved of President Barack Obama’s decision to grant amnesty to the illegal immigrants who are crossing the border.

85 percent of those polled claim that they are certain to vote in the upcoming election. If these numbers are accurate, Cotton has a slight advantage in the polls. Still, Pryor currently holds the position and could make a last minute promise in an effort to sway votes at the eleventh hour.

Photo credit: AP.

2014 Senate Polls Update: Iowa, Alaska, Arkansas, Kansas, Michigan

There was a handful of polls tracking the closest 2014 Senate races released this week and presented good and bad news for both parties as Election Day nears.

Iowa is by far the closest race of any this election cycle as two new polls show a dead heat between Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley. Since July, four of five polls had the race as an even tie while a CBS News/New York Times poll released in early July had Ernst leading by one point.

Arkansas is another state that could really go either way. After Republican challenger Tom Cotton led two July polls by 2 percent, incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor leads Cotton by one point in the latest Rasmussen poll so this race is a virtual tie as well.

In Alaska, where incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Begich led by 4 percent in the last PPP poll in July, a new Rasmussen survey shows Republican challenger Dan Sullivan leading Begich by 2 percent.

In Michigan, Democrat Gary Peters appears to be the frontrunner over Republican Terri Lynn Land, the only question is by how much. While a Rasmussen poll and EPIC-MRA poll show Peters up by 6 percent, a Harper poll only has Peters leading by 1 percent and a Mitchell Research poll has Peters up by 2.

In Kansas we see an interesting race as it is one of the few three-way races in the country. Republican incumbent Pat Roberts currently leads Democrat Chad Taylor and independent challenger Greg Orman but Orman is gaining ground.

The latest Survey USA poll has Roberts with 37 percent, Taylor with 32 percent, and Orman with 20 percent.

More New Polls Show Republicans Take Lead As Senate Races Slip Away From Democrats

In the past week we’ve seen a slew of new poll suggesting big trouble for Democratic candidates in both gubernatorial and Senate races. More new polls released this week show similar results as Democrats who once held strong leads are seeing Republicans overtake them.

In Arkansas, where incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor led almost every single poll all spring, Republican challenger Tom Cotton has now led by 2-4 percent in six straight June/July polls, including a Rasmussen poll, Magellan Strategies poll, Impact Management Group poll, CBS News/New York Times poll, Talk Business poll, and PPP poll.

In North Carolina, where the well-funded Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan led every poll in June and early July, Republican challenger Thom Tillis now leads by 1 percent according to a CBS News/New York Times poll and by 2 percent according to a Civitas poll.

In Kentucky, where Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes has put up a strong fight against Senate Minority Leader and incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell, leading him by three points as recently as June, McConnell appears to be back on top.

After a CBS News/New York Times poll showed McConnell retaking the lead with a 4 percent margin, a new Courier-Journal/Survey USA poll conducted in late July also had McConnell leading by 2 percent.

Last week we noted that the Florida gubernatorial race was starting to slip away from Democrats as incumbent Governor Rick Scott took the lead over former Governor Charlie Crist.

A new Survey USA poll now confirms what the recent CBS News/NYT poll and Rasmussen poll have shown with Scott leading Crist by 2 percent. Crist had led just about every single poll until June.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

More Bad News For Democrats as Senate Races Swing Republican

Last week we looked at how President Obama’s sagging approval and favorability ratings are dragging down Democrats in gubernatorial races. The same phenomenon has been the case in the Senate races as a slew of new polls shows Republicans taking the lead in their respective elections.

In Arkansas, where incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor had led by as much as 10 points in the spring, a new CBS News/New York Times poll shows Republican challenger Tom Cotton leading by 4 points. A Rasmussen poll, a Magellan Strategies poll, and an Impact Management Group poll all have Cotton leading by 4 percent as well.

In Kentucky, where recent Survey USA and Magellan Strategies polls had Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes leading by 1-3 points, incumbent Senator and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell leads by 4 percent in the latest CBS/NYT poll and by 2 percent in the latest Survey USA/Courier-Journal poll.

In North Carolina, where incumbent Democratic Senator Kay Hagan led all through June and early July, the new CBS/NYT poll has Republican challenger Thom Tillis pulling ahead by a slim one-point margin.

In Louisiana, where a recent PPP poll had the race tied and a Rasmussen poll had incumbent Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu leading by 3, the new CBS/NYT poll has Republican challenger Bill Cassidy taking a 1 percent lead.

In Iowa, where Democrat Bruce Braley had led just about every single poll to come out of the Hawkeye State, the new CBS/NYT poll has Republican Joni Ernst leading by 1 percent while a new NBC News/Marist poll has the race tied.

In Michigan, where Democrat Gary Peters had led every single poll since April, the new CBS/NYT poll has Republican Terri Lynn Land ahead by 1 percent.

In Georgia, where a recent Landmark Communications poll had Democrat Michelle Nunn up by 4 percent, the new CBS News/NYT poll has Republican David Perdue leading by 6 percent.

There is still time but with most primaries over, the Republicans find themselves in very good position heading toward the November midterms.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)