The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: Michelle Nunn

Georgia Elections: The Latest on the Georgia Senate and Georgia Governor

Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 10/16 – 10/24

Georgia Senate / Georgia Governor

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has released a new poll revealing the results for both the Georgia Senate and Georgia Governor elections.

Georgia Governor:

  • Nathan Deal – Republican – 46%
  • Jason Carter – Democrat – 41%
  • Andrew Hunt – Libertarian – 5%

carter-deal

Deal has led the Georgia governor race more often than his opponent Carter. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll has him at a +5, but a similar poll conducted by CNN earlier this week has Carter at a +2.

Deal held the lead in September numerous times, trading with Carter in the odd poll. In early September, Deal was a +1 in several polls, by the middle of the month, Insider Advantage rated him at a +4, and at the end of the month, Rasmussen Reports had him at +6.

Georgia Senate:

  • David Perdue – Republican – 44%
  • Michelle Nunn – Democrat – 42%
  • Amanda Swafford – Libertarian – 6%

nunn-perdue-ap

Data for both polls was gathered by Abt SRBI of New York. 1,170 Georgians were asked who they would vote for in both the Georgia Senate and Georgia Governor elections. The margin of error was calculated at 3.6 percent.

For most of October, the majority of the Georgian Senate polls favored Nunn. Survey USA had her at a +2, WRBL at a +1, Insider Advantage at a +2, and a CNN poll had her at a +3.

In September, Purdue had a commanding lead. An Insider Advantage poll pegged him at a +10, Rasmussen Reports at a +5, and various other polls had him in the lead.

Photo credit: Georgia Grad Affairs, Breitbart, IVN.

2014 Senate Polls Update: Michigan, North Carolina, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky

Arkansas: USA Today

  • Pryor (D): 45
  • Cotton (R): 43

Georgia: SurveyUSA

  • Perdue (R): 46
  • Nunn (D): 45

Kentucky: Reuters

  • McConnell (R): 46
  • Grimes (D): 42

Michigan: Rasmussen

  • Peters (D): 41
  • Land (R): 39

Alaska: PPP

  • Sullivan (R): 45
  • Begich (D): 42

North Carolina: PPP

  • Hagan (D): 46
  • Tillis (R): 42

This is the peak of the campaign season and voters all over the nation are increasingly tortured by copious amounts of campaign ads on television, radio, and front lawns. There’s been quite a bit of movement in the polls lately, so clearly these are having some effect. Let’s take a look at the latest numbers from some of the most competitive races in the Senate.

In Georgia, where Republican David Perdue had led Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn by as many as 9-10 points, a new Survey USA poll has Perdue up by just 1 percent. In August, Survey USA had him up by 9 and in early September he was up by just 3 so this could be a trend. A recent WSB-TV/Landmark poll even had Nunn up by a few points. This one is not over by a longshot.

In Kentucky, Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes has now finished within 4-5 percent of Republican incumbent Senator and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in six of the last seven polls. The Democrats are looking to spend a ton of money to try to unseat McConnell so Grimes is definitely still in the race.

In Michigan, where Democrat Gary Peters had been leading Republican Terri Lynn Land by as much a 9-10 percent, Peters has now led Land by just 2-3 percent in three of the last four polls. Looks like Land is building some momentum heading into October.

In Alaska, we can officially say Mark Begich is in trouble. Not only has he trailed Republican challenger Dan Sullivan in every poll since July, Nate Silver points out that Alaska tends to overpoll Democrats in Alaska by an average of 7-8 percent. That means that while Begich is down 3-6 percent, he may actually be down as much as 10 or more.

In North Carolina, where Republican Thom Tillis has led a handful of polls in July and early August, incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan has now led seven straight polls and RealClearPolitics reports she leads Tillis by an average of 5 percent.

In Arkansas, where Republican challenger Tom Cotton had led four straight polls, a new USA Today poll has incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor up by 2. Arkansas is hard to judge but considering Cotton has led 10 of the last 12 polls, he looks to have the edge.

All in all, Perdue, McConnell, Cotton, and Sullivan are all Republicans likely to win their races while Hagan and Peters are Democrats likely to win theirs.

2014 Senate Polls Update: Iowa, Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Kansas

Earlier this week we reported the latest poll numbers for every single senate race in the country. Today we look at six of the most competitive senate races to see where things stand as November approaches.

Let’s start with Kansas, which is one of the most interesting races in the country. Governor Sam Brownback appears to be headed for a big time defeat and is bringing down Republican Senator Pat Roberts with him. It appeared that Roberts was neck-and-neck with Democrat Chad Taylor. Taylor has since dropped out of the race (although his name will still appear on the ballot) in favor of independent candidate Greg Orman.

In the latest Survey USA poll, Orman leads Roberts by a single point while Taylor is still polling at 10 percent. With Taylor essentially out of the picture, it appears that Orman is the odds-on favorite to win Kansas.

Iowa is truly one of the closest races in the country after three straight August polls had the race completely tied. Three September polls show Democrat Bruce Braley inching ahead as a CBS News/NY Times poll has Braley up by 2, a Loras College poll has him up by 4, and a new CNN poll has him up by a point. Iowa is truly too-close-to-call and likely will be until Election Day.

In Colorado, incumbent Democrat Mark Udall has now led Republican challenger Cory Gardner in six straight polls since July. The latest Denver Post/Survey USA poll has Udall up by 4 while a Rasmussen poll has him up by 2 and an NBC News/Marist poll has him up by 6. Udall appears to be the slight frontrunner and has been since polling began in March.

In Georgia, Republican David Perdue has now led Democrat Michelle Nunn in three straight September polls. A CBS/NYT poll has him up by 6, a Survey USA poll has him up by 3, and an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll has him up by 4. Perdue appears to have the slight edge heading toward October.

North Carolina is another toss-up state after incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan posted slight leads in four of the last five polls while Republican challenger Thom Tillis has led three of the last seven polls. A new Rasmussen poll has Hagan leading by 6 while a Survey USA poll has her up by 1. At this point, North Carolina is anyone’s to win.

The Democrats did get some good news out of Michigan, however, where Democrat Gary Peters has led Republican Terri Lynn Land in three straight polls. A Detroit News poll has Peters up by 10, a PPP poll has Peters up by 5, and a USA Today poll has Peters up by 9. Peters appears to be the frontrunner in this one.

2014 Senate Polls Update: Kentucky, Louisiana, Georgia, Illinois

Rasmussen: Kentucky

  • McConnell (R): 46
  • Grimes (D): 41

Rasmussen: Louisiana

  • Cassidy (R): 44
  • Landrieu (D): 41

WRBL/Ledger-Enquirer: Georgia

  • Nunn (D): 45
  • Perdue (R): 43

Sun-Times/WeAskAmerica: Illinois

  • Durbin (D): 48
  • Oberweis (R): 41

A handful of new polls have a bit of good news and a bit of bad news for both parties as the 2014 midterm elections are just two months away.

In Kentucky, we are seeing a clear picture as incumbent Republican Senator and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell had now led Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4-5 percent in five straight polls. Since July, McConnell has led Grimes by 4-5 points in a CBS News/New York Times poll, a CNN poll, a Rasmussen poll, a Courier Journal/Survey USA poll, and a PPP poll.

In Louisiana, where a June PPP poll showed the race between incumbent Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu and Republican challenger Bill Cassidy all tied up and a July CBS News/NY Times poll had Cassidy leading by 1 percent, a new Rasmussen poll shows Cassidy inching ahead and taking a 44-41 lead among likely voters.

In Georgia, where Republican David Perdue had led three straight polls following his primary win over Jack Kingston, Democrat Michelle Nunn has now led two straight polls by a margin of 2-7 points. A WSB-TV/Landmark poll sampling 600 likely voters with a margin of error of 4 percent had Nunn up 47-40 but a WRBL/Ledger-Enquirer poll, sampling 1,578 likely voters with a 2.5 percent margin of error has Nunn leading by 2.

Illinois may be a lot closer than we first thought. After the first couple of polls had incumbent Democratic Senator Dick Durbin leading by 14-15 points, a new Chicago Sun-Times/WeAskAmerica poll has Durbin leading Republican challenger Jim Oberweis by just 7 points.

Two New Polls Show David Perdue Extend Lead Over Michelle Nunn in Georgia Senate Race

Insider Advantage, 8/12-8/13
Georgia Senate

  • Perdue: 47
  • Nunn: 40
  • Swafford: 8

Survey USA, 8/14-8/17

  • Perdue: 50
  • Nunn: 41
  • Swafford: 3

Businessman David Perdue opened up an early lead over Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn after he defeated Congressman Jack Kingston in the state’s Republican primary. Now, two new polls show Perdue owning a healthy lead over Nunn as November approaches.

A new Insider Advantage/Opinion Savvy poll, conducted between August 12 and August 13, sampling 719 likely voters, finds Perdue leading Nunn by a margin of 47 to 40 while Libertarian candidate Amanda Swafford is at 8 percent. Five percent of the poll respondents remain undecided.

A new Survey USA poll conducted between August 14 and August 17, sampling 560 likely voters, found a similar result with Perdue leading Nunn by a 50-41 margin as Swafford pulls in just 3 percent of the vote.

In the last Survey USA poll, conducted back in June, Perdue led Nunn by a margin of 43 to 38 but 14 percent of voters were still undecided at that point, compared to 6 percent in this poll.

Perdue has a strong lead among male voters, leading Nunn by a margin of 56 to 37. Nunn has just a slight advantage among female voters, leading Perdue by a margin of 46 to 44.

Swafford gets just 2 percent of the male vote and 3 percent of the female vote.

Four percent of male voters are still undecided, compared to 7 percent of female voters.

While the female vote could perhaps swing the election Nunn’s way, largely depending on voter turnout, the election appears to be slowly but surely moving into the Republican column the longer this race goes.

After Surprise Primary Win, David Perdue Takes Lead Over Michelle Nunn in Georgia

Rasmussen, 7/23-7/24
Georgia Senate

  • Perdue (R): 46
  • Nunn (D): 40

Polls leading up to the Georgia Senate Republican primary runoff election between former Dollar General CEO David Perdue and Congressman Jack Kingston suggested that Kingston had the edge before Perdue pulled off a surprise win. Now, a new Rasmussen poll shows the businessman gaining traction and leading Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn in the race for one of Georgia’s two senate seats.

The poll, conducted between July 23 and July 24, sampling 750 likely voters, found that Perdue now leads Nunn by a margin of 46-40. In the last poll, conducted in late May, Nunn led Perdue by a slim margin of 45-42 so this represents a significant shift.

Ten percent of respondents say they remain undecided and four percent prefer “another candidate.”

After winning the primary runoff, Perdue scoffed at the idea that he didn’t have the experience that Nunn has.

“With my business career, I will prosecute the failed record of the last six years of Barack Obama,” Perdue said in his victory speech. “This fall, we’re going to have a clear choice.”

“Now you’ve got two outsiders talking about Washington, and now you get down to the issues,” Perdue said after his win. “Let’s talk about debt, the economy, and jobs and who brings more value to that debate. Someone who has been running a philanthropy for 15 years or whatever, or someone who has been out here, not to go bragging, competing in the real world?”

Two Polls Show Jack Kingston Pulling Away From David Perdue Ahead of Tuesday’s Georgia GOP Primary Runoff

Landmark Communications
Georgia GOP Primary Runoff

  • Kingston: 48
  • Perdue: 41

Insider Advantage/Fox 5

  • Kingston: 46
  • Perdue: 41

With Tuesday’s Georgia Republican primary runoff less than 24 hours away, two new polls show longtime Congressman Jack Kingston pulling away from former Dollar General CEO David Perdue.

A Landmark Communications poll, conducted on July 16, sampling 1,720 likely runoff voters, found Kingston leading Perdue by a margin of 48-41. The margin of error in the poll was 2.4 percent.

“I think it will be close but I do believe it will be Jack Kingston’s election,” Channel 2 political analyst Bill Crane said of the poll.

Another poll, conducted by Insider Advantage/Fox 5/Morris News, sampling 696 likely voters between July 15 and 16, found Kingston leading Perdue by a margin of 46-41. The poll had a margin of error of 3.7 percent.

“This survey indicated that Kingston has managed to retake momentum in the race with under a week to go,” Fox 5 political analyst Matt Towery said of the poll. “This is partly due to the fact that the Perdue camp and outside groups supporting him have not pursued the one issue that was damaging the Kingston effort, that being issues related to a campaign fundraiser for Kingston involving a foreign national with a criminal background and some of his employees.

“Perdue’s campaign and his supporters have instead emphasized their candidate’s ‘political outsider’ position as a candidate running against the ‘insider’ Kingston. While that theme has worked well with older voters, it has lost its magic having run long enough to pull in all the votes it can.”

Assuming Kingston does win the runoff, which is looking increasingly likely, he’ll have a tough battle against Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn.

According to a Landmark Communications poll sampling 750 likely Georgia general election voters, Nunn leads Kingston by a margin of 49-41.

That’s a big turnaround from April when Kingston led Nunn by a fraction, 37.7-37.

Regardless of who wins Tuesday’s runoff, Nunn has a big opportunity to turn Georgia blue.

(Image courtesy of US Department of Agriculture)

Michelle Nunn Pulls Ahead in Georgia Race as Jack Kingston Takes Primary Runoff Lead

A new PPP poll shows Jack Kingston pulling away from David Perdue in the Georgia Senate Republican primary runoff and Michelle Nunn pulling away from both potential GOP opponents in the general election.

The poll, conducted between July 9 and July 13, sampling 516 likely Republican primary runoff voters and 664 registered Georgia voters, found that Jack Kingston has made strong gains in his runoff race while Michelle Nunn has pulled away from Kingston and Perdue in the subsequent general election race.

In the primary runoff, Congressman Jack Kingston now owns a 47-41 lead over businessman David Perdue. Thirteen percent of respondents say they remain undecided as the July 22 election draws near.

Once that race is decided, the winner will go on to face Michelle Nunn, the former CEO of the Points of Light Foundation and the daughter of former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn.

Nunn had been tied with both candidates but now leads Kingston with a significant 44-41 margin and Perdue with a stronger 48-41 margin, suggesting that Kingston has the better chance to win should he gain the nomination.

While Kingston leads Nunn 47-43 and Perdue leads Nunn 49-44 among male voters, Nunn has a big lead among female voters and a massive lead among Georgia’s African-American voters.

Among women, Nunn leads Kingston by a 46-36 margin while leading Perdue by a big time 51-35 margin.

Among black voters, Nunn leads Kingston with a dominant 71-11 margin and Perdue with a monstrous 86-7 margin.

While both races will be tight and remain too close to call, it’s becoming clear that the Democrats can still win Georgia but will need a very strong female and black voter turnout to win a Senate seat in the Peach State.