The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton Much Less Likely to Win 2016 Election Than First Thought

Quinnipiac, 11/18-11/23
Head-to-Head National Election

  • Clinton: 43
  • Christie: 42
  • Clinton: 46
  • Ryan: 42
  • Clinton: 46
  • Paul: 41
  • Clinton: 46
  • Bush: 41
  • Clinton: 46
  • Huckabee: 41
  • Clinton: 48
  • Cruz: 37

Prior to the 2014 midterms, most of the head-to-head national election polls we saw showed presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leading the top Republican candidates by huge margins. Now, a new Quinnipiac poll has found that the former Secretary of State is now the overwhelming favorite we once thought.

The poll, conducted between November 18 and November 23, found that Clinton leads New Jersey Governor Chris Christie by just a single point while the other top candidates are dangerously close.

Clinton leads Christie by a margin of 43-42 after polls back in September showed her leading by as much as 9-10 percent.

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, a dark horse in the 2016 race, trails the former First Lady by just 4 percent, a 46-42 margin. The last poll to look at a hypothetical head-to-head between the two possible candidates was done all the way back in April and found Ryan trailing by 8 percent.

The other major candidates are also all within striking distance of Hillary.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul trails the former New York Senator by a margin of 46-41. Back in the summer and early fall, Paul trailed Clinton by around 9-11 percent.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush trails Hillary by the same 46-41 margin after falling behind by 11-13 percent in June-September.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee also trails Clinton by the same 46-41 margin. This hypothetical matchup hasn’t been polled since April when Huckabee was 13 points back of the Democratic frontrunner.

Only Texas Senator Ted Cruz is still severely lagging, partly because of his divisive nature but also his low name recognition. Cruz trails Clinton by a 48-37 margin, not too different from the 13-point gap we saw between the two candidates in June.

Fox News Exit Poll Shows Mike Huckabee, Jeb Bush, Rick Perry Leading 2016 GOP Pack

While most of the polling last week focused on the midterms, Fox News conducted exit polls at the voting booths to get a sense of where “real” voters, i.e. those that actually vote as opposed to “likely voters,” stand on the 2016 presidential election. The results were somewhat surprising, especially given the media attention that likely candidates like Chris Christie and Rand Paul have received.

One thing to note is that national polling means very little once these candidates fall victim to the primary schedule. We all remember how well former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani was doing in the national polls in 2008 only to see his campaign sputter after poor showings at the early primaries.

So let’s take a look at the early primary states and see what we can make of the data.

In Iowa, the first-in-the-nation caucus, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee leads the pack with 18 percent. That’s not much of a surprise since Huckabee has led most of the polling out of Iowa and Huckabee won the caucus in 2008 with 34 percent of the vote.

The race is very close, however, with outgoing Texas Governor Rick Perry surging to 17 percent, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush at 15 percent, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul at 14 percent, and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie at 12.

In New Hampshire, the standings are more or less flipped. Bush leads the pack with 22 percent but Paul is right on his heels with 21 percent. Christie is at 15, Huckabee is at 10, and Perry is at just 4.

After New Hampshire we move to South Carolina, where Huckabee finds himself in the lead with 20 percent. Bush is second with 18 but Christie and Paul trail with 12 and Perry with 11.

So in the first three states, Huckabee appears to be very strong in two while Bush appears to have a shot at all three. Perry doesn’t figure to make much hay outside of Iowa, if that, and Christie doesn’t look likely to win any of the early contests.

While Iowa is rarely telling of who the eventual nominee will be, with Huckabee and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum winning the state in 2008 and 2012, respectively, the winner of the New Hampshire primary has gone on to win the nomination in the last three election cycles. That could mean good news for Jeb Bush though it’s hard to see a polarizing candidate like Paul use a possible New Hampshire win to gain momentum in a lot of northern and western states.

Clinton Edges out Republican Challengers in PPP Poll

Public Policy Polling, 30/9 Clinton vs. Republican Candidates

  • Clinton – 43%
  • Bush – 43%
  • Clinton – 45%
  • Christie – 41%
  • Clinton – 47%
  • Cruz – 39%
  • Clinton – 46%
  • Huckabee – 42%
  • Clinton – 47%
  • Paul – 42%

Public Policy Polling issued a poll at the end of September that collected data on potential elections involving the favored Democrat nomination, Hillary Clinton and the various Republican challengers that she could face in a presidential election. The results revealed that she would defeat almost every single candidate and that she would tie Jeb Bush. In an election against Jeb Bush, Clinton would tie him with 43 percent of the vote. If she were to face Chris Christie, she would achieve 45 percent of the vote, while he would only secure 41 percent. Clinton would tally 46 percent of the votes against Mike Huckabee and his 42 percent. Rand Paul would receive 42 percent of the votes to Clinton’s 47 percent. Ted Cruz would secure the least votes of all. Only 39 percent of voters would vote for him, the other 47 percent would choose Clinton.

In addition, 39 percent of the participants in this poll identified as conservative, 29 percent as liberal, and 33 percent as moderate. The party split was nearly even. 35 percent of the voters claimed to be Democrat, 36 percent Republican, and 29 percent independent. These numbers are interesting as the results in the poll favor the Democrats. Are Republicans upset with the direction of the party? Are voters beginning to see how outdated the party is? These are important questions to ask.

Clinton has enjoyed strong leads over most of her Republican challengers throughout many of the polls. Still, none of these numbers matter until we know which candidates are nominated to represent each of the parties. Stay tuned for future updates as the elections approach.

Photo credit: CBS News.

Don’t Look Now But Mike Huckabee Might Have Iowa Republican Caucus Already Won

USA Today/Suffolk, 8/23-8/26
Iowa Republican Caucus

  • Huckabee: 13
  • Christie: 11
  • Perry: 8
  • Paul: 7
  • Bush: 7
  • Ryan: 6
  • Santorum: 6
  • Cruz: 5
  • Rubio: 5
  • Walker: 4
  • Jindal: 3

While we have seen candidates rise and fall in just about every state and national poll, there has been one constant: Mike Huckabee has led every single Iowa Republican caucus poll this year and is the odds-on favorite to win the caucus as he did in 2008 when he won the state with 34 percent of the vote.

A new USA Today/Suffolk poll has Huckabee in first place with 13 percent of the vote. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is the only other candidate in the double-digits with 11 percent. The other candidates are struggling as Texas Governor Rick Perry is at 8 percent, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul are at 7 percent, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan and Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum are at 6 percent, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Texas Senator Ted Cruz are at 5 percent.

Since February, Huckabee has led every single Iowa GOP poll, including a PPP poll (17 percent), WPA Research (14 percent), Loras College (15 percent), Magellan (17 percent), Vox Populi/Daily Caller (20 percent), another PPP (20 percent), and now this most recent poll.

Bush appeared to have a strong chance at the caucus but he has seen his 17-18 percent support from April plummet to just 7 percent in the latest survey.

Paul appeared to have a chance as well but he has been polling at 8-10 percent since March and is also at 7 percent in the latest survey.

Winning the Iowa caucus didn’t propel Huckabee to the nomination in 2008, but he did beat a seemingly stronger class of candidates, including John McCain, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Fred Thompson, and Rudy Guiliani.

(Image courtesy of WEBN-TV)

Chris Christie Turns Tables on Rand Paul, Re-Takes Lead in New CNN Poll

CNN/ORC, 7/18-7/20
National GOP

  • Christie: 13
  • Paul: 12
  • Huckabee: 12
  • Perry: 11
  • Ryan: 11
  • Bush: 8
  • Cruz: 8
  • Rubio: 6
  • Walker: 5
  • Santorum: 3

After Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has led three straight CNN polls, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie appears to have bounced back and re-taken the lead.

The new CNN poll, conducted between July 18 and July 20, sampling 470 Republicans and Republican-leaning independent voters, found that Christie leads the national nomination polls with 13 percent of the vote.

The result comes as a bit of a surprise as Christie had been polling at 8-9 percent following his Bridgegate scandal.

Meanwhile, Paul, who has led the last three CNN polls with 13-16 percent of the vote, fell to 12 percent and second place, tied with Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee who remained in the low double-digits.

Another surprise is the surge of Texas Governor Rick Perry, likely helped by his high profile role in the current immigration crisis, finishing in third place with 11 percent of the vote, tied with Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.

While Perry and Christie rose, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush slipped to just 8 percent after seeing 12-13 percent in the last two polls. Bush tied Texas Senator Ted Cruz who has seen 7-9 percent in five straight CNN polls.

The rest of the pack didn’t make much of a dent. Florida Senator Marco Rubio received 6 percent, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker received 5 percent, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum received 3 percent.

Among just Republican-leaning independent voters, Paul finished in a first place tie with Huckabee with 13 percent apiece. Christie received 12 percent and tied Rick Perry. Cruz received 10 percent, Ryan got 7 percent, Rubio saw 6 percent, and Bush and Walker tied with 5 points each.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Only Mitt Romney Can Save the Republican Party in 2016

UNH/WMUR, 6/19-7/1
New Hampshire GOP (With Mitt Romney)
Romney: 39
Christie: 7
Paul: 7
Bush: 6
Jindal: 5
Huckabee: 4
Cruz: 3
Rubio: 2
Walker: 2
Santorum: 2
Perry: 1
Ryan: 1

Last week we mentioned that Chris Christie has re-taken the lead in the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary race over Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. No doubt, the 2016 Republican nomination race will be one of the closest and most contested in recent memory – unless 2012 nominee Mitt Romney runs again.

According to a new UNH/WMUR poll, conducted between June 19 and July 1, sampling 251 likely Republican New Hampshire primary voters, Mitt Romney would lead the current GOP pack by a whopping 32 points if he decided to run once more.

While Chris Christie leads Kentucky Senator Rand Paul by a 5-point margin in the current standings, Mitt Romney would have a dominant first place lead with 39 percent of the vote in New Hampshire.

With Romney in the race, no other Republican candidate has double-digit support and the 2012 nominee would lead Christie and Paul, who are both at 7 percent, by more than 30 points.

The other candidates barely make a dent with Romney is the race.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush would fall to 6 percent, compared to his current 11.

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal would be at 5 percent, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee would be at 4 percent, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz would be at 3 percent.

Meanwhile, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum are at just 2 percent.

Texas Governor Rick Perry, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, and Ohio Senator Rob Portman are at just 1 percent.

Clearly if Mitt Romney, who insists he doesn’t plan on running again, opts to throw his hat into the race, he would be the clear-cut favorite to clinch the Republican nomination for the second straight time. Your move, Mitt.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Chris Christie Comeback? NJ Governor Pulls Into First Place in New Hampshire Primary

UNH/WMUR, 6/19-7/1
New Hampshire GOP

  • Christie: 19
  • Paul: 14
  • Bush: 11
  • Huckabee: 8
  • Rubio: 8
  • Ryan: 5
  • Cruz: 5
  • Jindal: 5
  • Walker: 3
  • Perry: 2
  • Undecided: 15

Perhaps the rumors of Chris Christie’s campaign’s demise have been exaggerated. A new UNH/WMUR poll shows that the embattled New Jersey Governor has recovered, at least in New Hampshire, and is now in a comfortable first place lead in the first-in-the-nation primary state.

The poll, conducted between June 19 and July 1, sampling 251 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters, found that Chris Christie leads the first-in-the-nation primary race for the first time since last year with 19 percent of the vote. Christie saw just 12 percent in the last UNH/WMUR poll conducted back in April.

Meanwhile, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, who had led three straight New Hampshire polls, now finds himself in second place with 14 percent of the vote. He had been polling 15-17 percent in five straight UNH/WMUR polls.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is inching his way up to third with 11 percent of the vote. He had received just 3-7 percent in New Hampshire all year.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee finds himself in fourth place with 8 percent of the vote in the first poll that’s included him.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio also appears to be bouncing back and tied Huckabee with 8 percent of the vote after seeing just 2-6 percent in New Hampshire since last summer.

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal are in a three-way tie with 5 percent of the vote which is down for Ryan, up for Jindal, and par for the course for Cruz.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker received 3 percent, Texas Governor Rick Perry received 2 percent, and 15 percent of likely New Hampshire primary voters say they remain undecided.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Independents Don’t Like Any GOP Candidate, Warm to Hillary: New Poll

Quinnipiac, 6/12-6/16
Iowa Independents Favorables

  • Clinton: 52 favorable – 39 unfavorable
  • Huckabee: 35-31
  • Ryan: 33-29
  • Paul: 30-28
  • Christie: 30-34
  • Bush: 22-35

We all know that Democrats vote for Democrats and Republicans vote for Republicans so most general elections come down to the independent voters. If the independent vote decides the 2016 election, the Republicans are in big trouble according to a new Quinnipiac poll.

The poll, conducted between June 12 and June 16, sampling 1,277 registered Iowa voters, found that Hillary Clinton has a favorable rating of 52 among independent voters while not a single Republican candidate owns a favorable rating over 35 percent.

Among independent voters, presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton owns a 52 percent favorable rating and a 39 percent unfavorable rating, good for a 13-point differential. That is right around what a March Quinnipiac poll showed when Clinton scored a 50 favorable-40 unfavorable.

For the Republican side, things aren’t so rosy.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee owns the highest favorable rate among independent voters with just 35 percent saying they have a favorable view of the Fox News host. Just 31 percent they had an unfavorable view of the 2008 candidate, so at least he is still at +4.

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan scored a 33 percent favorable rate among independents but just a 29 percent unfavorable so a lot of voters either have no opinion on the 2012 Vice Presidential candidate or don’t know enough to form an opinion yet.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul owns a 30 percent favorable rate among independents and a 28 percent unfavorable for a reasonable +2.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, however, once hailed as a moderate who could bring more general election voters into the GOP tent, only has a 30 percent favorability among independents while 34 percent have an unfavorable view of the scandal-stricken guv.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, also considered a moderate who could appeal to more voters, actually performed the worst, scoring just a 22 percent favorable rating while 35 percent of independents said they have an unfavorable view of the younger Bush brother.

(Image courtesy of Marc Nozell)

North Carolina Will Be Key Battleground State in 2016, New Poll Shows

PPP, 6/12-6/15
North Carolina

  • Clinton: 45, Bush: 44
  • Clinton: 46, Huckabee: 43
  • Clinton: 46, Paul: 43
  • Clinton: 45, Christie: 41

A new PPP poll has found that the 2016 presidential election in North Carolina is likely to be incredibly close, with most of the top potential Republican candidates moving in on Hillary Clinton and now in a virtual tie with the presumptive Democratic nominee.

The poll, conducted between June 12 and June 15, sampling 1,076 registered North Carolina voters, found that former Florida Governor Jeb Bush now trails Clinton by just 1 percent – in a poll with a 3 percent margin of error.

Clinton has now seen the same 45 percent against Bush in three straight North Carolina polls but Bush has gained a bit of ground, receiving 44 percent after seeing 42 percent back in May.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is just three points back of Clinton. The Fox News host has now seen 43 percent in North Carolina in three straight polls but Clinton has fallen from 49 percent early in the year to 46 percent.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul is also within the margin of error, trailing Clinton 46-43. Paul has now seen 43-44 percent in every North Carolina poll conducted this year while Hillary has fallen off from 49 percent to 46 percent, the same case as with Huckabee.

Only New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is outside of the margin of error, trailing Clinton 45-41. Clinton has now seen 44-46 percent against Christie in every poll this year. Christie had led Clinton prior to his Bridgegate scandal but has fallen off from his peak of 46 percent to 41.

Clinton’s biggest problem appears to be among independent voters.

The former Secretary of State trails Bush by 10 percent among independents. She also trails Huckabee by nine, Paul by eight, and Christie by three.

(Photo By Mallory Benedict/PBS NewsHour)

Coup: Tea Party Favorite Rand Paul Leads Second Straight National Republican Primary Poll

CNN, 5/29-6/1

  • Paul: 14
  • Bush: 12
  • Huckabee: 11
  • Ryan: 10
  • Cruz: 9
  • Christie: 8
  • Rubio: 8
  • Perry: 6
  • Walker: 5
  • Santorum: 4

We have seen candidates like Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and Mike Huckabee lead the national Republican nomination polls, but it’s Tea Party favorite Rand Paul who leads a new CNN poll, the second straight poll in which the Kentucky Senator has found himself in first.

According to the poll, conducted between May 29 and June 1, sampling 452 adults, Paul leads the rest of the Republican pack with 14 percent of the vote. That’s around the same as his 15 percent in a Washington Post poll released in April and 14 percent in a Fox News poll before that.

Right on his heels is former Florida Governor Jeb Bush with 12 percent. Bush has now seen 12-14 percent in five straight polls after polling mostly in single digits to start the year.

Right behind Bush is another former governor, Fox News host Mike Huckabee. Huckabee received 11 percent in this poll after leading most polls to start the year.

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan was the only other candidate to finish in double-digits, claiming 10 percent of the vote. That’s a slight dip from the 12 percent he had seen in four of the last five polls.

Paul’s Tea Party ally, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, finished with 9 percent of the vote. Cruz had seen 4-7 percent in the last five polls so this is actually welcome news for the Canadian-born lawmaker.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Florida Senator Marco Rubio tied with 8 percent apiece. Christie has seen 8-9 percent in three straight polls while Rubio has now seen 6-8 percent in seven straight.

Texas Governor Rick Perry finished with 6 percent, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker received 5 percent, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum garnered 4 percent.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)