The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: Mike Huckabee

Cracks: Hillary Support in Florida Plummets in New Poll

PPP, 6/6-6/9
Florida

  • Clinton: 46, Bush: 45
  • Clinton: 48, Rubio: 44
  • Clinton: 48, Paul: 42
  • Clinton: 48, Huckabee: 41
  • Clinton: 46, Christie: 38
  • Clinton: 50, Cruz: 39

While Florida looked like it would be one of Hillary Clinton’s key strongholds in early polls, a new PPP poll shows that Hillary’s support in the Sunshine State has plummeted since March.

According to the poll, conducted between June 6 and June 9, sampling 672 Florida voters, presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton now leads former Florida Governor Jeb Bush by just one point, a 46-45 margin. That number is fairly shocking considering the last PPP poll from March had Clinton ahead of the former governor by a strong 53-40 margin.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio has also seen a huge turnaround. The former Secretary of State now leads the lone potential Hispanic candidate by a margin of 48-44. In March, Clinton led Rubio by a huge 56-40 margin.

And it wasn’t just the home state politicians that are inching closer to the former First Lady.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul trails Clinton by just 6 percent. Clinton leads former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee by a margin of 48-41. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie trails the former New York Senator by a 46-38 margin. Only Texas Senator Ted Cruz has a double-digit deficit, trailing Hillary by a 50-39 margin.

Interestingly, Bush isn’t even that well liked in his own home state. Just 51 percent have a favorable view of Bush though only 35 percent of Florida voters have an unfavorable view.

On the other hand, Hillary’s favorables have fallen off in a big way. After polling at 56-favorable and 37-unfavorable in March, Clinton is now at just 46 percent favorable and 47 percent unfavorable, a massive swing.

With all that said, Florida voters would prefer not to see Bush or Rubio run in 2016. Just 35 percent of voters said Bush should run, compared to 50 percent who said he shouldn’t. A mere 27 percent said Rubio should run while 59 said that he should sit it out.

(Image courtesy of Marc Nozell)

Jeb Bush Rising, Takes Lead in Iowa: New Poll

Vox Populi, 6/4-6/5
Iowa

  • Bush: 18
  • Huckabee: 15
  • Ryan: 13
  • Paul: 12
  • Rubio: 11
  • Santorum: 10
  • Cruz: 9
  • Christie: 6
  • Walker: 6

Although we have seen Mike Huckabee ahead of the Republican pack in the first-in-the-nation Iowa Republican caucus all year, a new Vox Populi poll has found that as other candidates have made some significant headway, Jeb Bush has taken the lead in the Hawkeye State.

The poll, conducted between June 4 and 5, sampling 222 registered Republican voters, found that former Florida Governor Jeb Bush now leads the Iowa Republican caucus race with 18 percent.

To be fair, Jeb Bush didn’t “improve” his position, he received the same 18 percent in the last poll conducted in late April. Instead, Huckabee’s previously-leading 20 percent has been picked away at by other candidates.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee still finished second, but with 15 percent, a sizable drop from 20 percent just over a month ago. Almost every poll we have seen this year has Huckabee leading the Iowa caucus race.

Huckabee is not the only candidate hurt by the gains made by others. Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan has fallen into third place with 13 percent of the vote after seeing 19 percent in the last poll.

One of the candidates taking advantage of this is Kentucky Senator Rand Paul who has now jumped into fourth place with 12 percent of the vote after receiving just 8 percent in the last poll.

Another such candidate is the potentially resurging Florida Senator Marco Rubio who received 11 percent, a slight but significant increase from 9 percent in the April poll.

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who was not even included in the last poll, stole plenty of votes as well, finishing with 10 percent.

The other candidates pretty much stayed put.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz received 9 percent, the same as the last poll. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie fell from 7 percent in April to 6 percent in this new poll. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker also stayed put at 6 percent.

(Image courtesy of The World Affairs Council)

Iowa Voters Say Chris Christie Has Best Chance of Being Elected in 2016: New Poll

Des Moines Register, 5/27-5/30
Iowa, Best Chance to Defeat Democrat

  • Christie: 19
  • Bush: 16
  • Huckabee: 13
  • Paul: 13
  • Perry: 10
  • Ryan: 10
  • Jindal: 9
  • Rubio: 9
  • Cruz: 8
  • Santorum: 6
  • Walker: 6

 

There are two aspects to the primary process. One is appealing to the party base. If a Republican wants to be nominated, certainly he’ll have to say the right things about the economy, taxes, immigration, and social issues. Of course, then comes the question of electability. Winning a primary often costs a candidate some points in the general election because they have alienated voters outside of their base. Perhaps this is why a new Des Moines Register poll shows moderate Chris Christie as the most “electable candidate.”

The poll, conducted between May 27 and May 30, sampling 400 likely Iowa Republican caucus goers, found that voters see New Jersey Governor Chris Christie with the best chance to defeat a Democratic candidate in 2016.

While 19 percent of respondents said Christie has the best shot to win the general election, a very close 16 percent said fellow moderate and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has the best shot.

Coming in tied for third were former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul with 13 percent.

Behind them were Texas Governor Rick Perry and Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan with 10 percent.

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and Florida Senator Marco Rubio got 9 percent, Texas Senator Ted Cruz got 8 percent, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker got 6 percent.

Interestingly, Christie also received the lowest favorable-unfavorable split of any of the candidate. Just 42 percent have a favorable view of Christie and 40 percent have an unfavorable view.

Paul Ryan has the highest favorable rating by far with 56 percent having a favorable view of the former Veep nominee and just 23 percent seeing him in an unfavorable light.

Rubio got a 43 favorable-23 unfavorable split, Perry got a 49-32 split, Huckabee got a 50-34, Paul got a 46-30, Jindal got a 35-19, Cruz got a 38-26, Santorum got a 41-31, and Bush got a 44-38.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

New Poll: Moderates Abandon Republicans for Hillary in Droves

PPP, 5/30-6/1
Pennsylvania Moderate Voters

  • Clinton: 59, Christie: 29
  • Clinton: 57, Bush: 29
  • Clinton: 61, Paul: 25
  • Clinton: 62, Huckabee: 26
  • Clinton: 64, Cruz: 21

With the Republican Party growing more and more conservative, especially during the primaries when candidates have to appeal to their party base, moderates are abandoning Republicans in huge numbers and throwing their support toward presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

According to a new PPP Pennsylvania poll, Hillary Clinton owns dominant margins among moderate voters over every Republican candidate.

Even against New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, dubbed the moderate of the race, Clinton leads by a margin of 59-29 among Pennsylvania’s moderate voters despite only leading Christie by a 49-39 margin in the overall poll.

The other candidates fare even worse.

Against another moderate Republican, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Clinton leads by a margin of 57-29 among moderate voters.

Against conservative favorite and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, Clinton leads by a strong 61-25 margin.

Against former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, Clinton leads by a 62-26 margin among moderates.

She absolutely trounces Tea Party-favorite Ted Cruz with a 64-21 percent split among moderate voters.

Of course, thanks to the help of the moderate vote, Clinton has a strong overall lead on every Republican in the poll.

Clinton leads Christie by 10 percent, Bush by a 51-37 margin, Paul by a 52-38 margin, Huckabee by a 52-37 margin, and Cruz by a big 53-34 margin.

What will be interesting to see going forward is if Republicans can manage to alienate more moderate and independent voters once the primaries heat up.

Typically, primary season is spent moving to the right to appeal to the conservative base before moving to the middle in the general election campaign to appeal to as many voters as possible. The farther right the party goes, the harder it will be to move back to the middle and recapture moderate voters come November 2016. It’s already looking like an uphill battle before campaigning has even begun.

(Image courtesy of Josh Harrison)

In Conservative-Establishment Republican Split, Mike Huckabee Only Candidate to Appeal to All GOP Wings

The news media would have you believe that the 2016 Republican nomination race will be decided between the conservatives and candidates like Rand Paul and Ted Cruz and moderate or establishment Republican candidates like Chris Christie or Jeb Bush. Recent polls, however, show that there is one candidate who has been able to get sizeable support from the very conservative wing, the somewhat conservative wing, and the moderate wing of the Republican Party: former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.

While there is tons of data, let’s just look at a few more recent polls we’ve seen.

In a national Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted in April, Mike Huckabee leads the rest of the Republican pack among Republican primary voters with 17 percent. But a deeper look paints an interesting picture.

While Rand Paul and Ted Cruz are often considered the candidates of very conservative voters, Paul received 13 percent of the very conservative vote in the poll and Cruz got 11 percent. Huckabee? A whopping 21 percent.

Huck also finished only behind Paul and Bush among “somewhat conservative voters,” ahead of Cruz, Christie, Ryan, Rubio, Perry, and anyone else. Among voters that “lean Republican,” Huckabee finished in a virtual tie with Bush and Paul.

In recent Iowa poll, Huckabee saw a similar coalition begin to take form. Not only did he finish first with 20 percent of the vote, he received 26 percent of the very conservative vote (to Cruz’ 22 percent and Paul’s 11), 18 percent of the somewhat conservative vote (to Bush’s 16 percent and Cruz’ 13), and 10 percent of the moderate vote, finishing only behind Bush, Christie, and Paul.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

In a recent Oregon poll, we saw a similar phenomenon. Once again, Huckabee finished first with 21 percent. Among very conservative voters, he trailed only Ted Cruz. Among somewhat conservative voters, he finished with 25 percent, more than 10 percent higher than any other candidate. Among moderate voters, Huck finished only behind Bush.

While voter self-identification is not always the best way to learn about individual voters, one thing looks fairly clear. While Ted Cruz is the darling of very conservative voters and Bush appeals to the middle, Huckabee is doing well among all the wings of the party, and leading the rest of the pack in the majority of polls we have seen this year.

Mike Huckabee Leads Another GOP Primary Race as Bush, Paul Drop: New Poll

PPP, 5/22-5/27
Oregon GOP

  • Huckabee: 21
  • Cruz: 16
  • Paul: 15
  • Bush: 15
  • Christie: 12
  • Rubio: 4
  • Ryan: 3
  • Walker: 3
  • Santorum: 2

Watching media coverage of the 2016 Republican horserace would have you believe the race is between Jeb Bush and Rand Paul, and occasionally the slumping Chris Christie. The numbers paint a different story as former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee leads the GOP pack in many states, now including Oregon.

A new PPP poll, conducted between May 22 and May 27, sampling 375 Republican primary voters, found that Fox News host Mike Huckabee leads the state’s primary race by a solid five-point margin.

Huckabee’s strength is among the party’s moderate and “somewhat conservative” wings. Huckabee is polling 21 percent among moderates and 25 percent among voters who identify as “somewhat conservative” but is also in solid standing with the party’s very conservative wing at 19 percent. No other candidate has that kind of support among all three of the party’s main three demographics.

Coming in second is the conservative darling, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, with 16 percent of the vote. Cruz is the strongest candidate among Oregon’s “very conservative” voters, polling at 27 percent. He’s only at 11 percent among moderates, however.

Tied for third are moderate former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and conservative Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. Paul has fallen well behind Cruz among Oregon conservatives, only polling at 14 percent among very conservative voters and 12 percent among moderates.

Bush, on the other hand, is the strongest candidate among moderate voters, polling at 26 percent, but is not very popular with very conservative voters at just 8 percent.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is the only other candidate to poll in the double-digits, finishing with 12 percent. Christie, a former moderate favorite, is only polling 12 percent among moderate voters and a mere 7 percent among very conservative voters.

Regardless of who you support, the numbers in Oregon and most other states don’t seem to support the 2016 narrative that the media is trying to paint with the seldom-discussed Mike Huckabee looking very strong in Iowa and beyond.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Mike Huckabee the Clear Front Runner in Iowa GOP Caucus: New Poll

PPP, 5/15-5/19
Iowa
Huckabee: 20
Cruz: 15
Bush: 12
Paul: 10
Christie: 9
Ryan: 8
Walker: 6
Rubio: 4
Santorum: 3

After several polls showed former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee tied with Jeb Bush or within just a point of Bush and Paul Ryan, a new PPP poll has found that the Fox News host is starting to pull away.

The poll, conducted between May 15 and May 19, sampling 303 registered Iowa voters, found that Huckabee leads the Republican field with 20 percent of the vote.

This isn’t surprising, the last poll out of Iowa, conducted by Vox Populi and The Daily Caller in April, showed Huckabee with 20 percent of the vote as well. A previous Magellan poll had Huckabee at 17. What’s different is that the candidates behind him are starting to slip as voters opt for more fringe candidates.

Coming in a surprising second was Texas Senator Ted Cruz with 15 percent of the vote. This is the first time we have seen Cruz with more than 10 percent of the vote in Iowa and he had seen 9-10 percent in three of the last four polls to come out of the Hawkeye State.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, no longer enjoying that short period where everyone was talking about whether he would run, fell to third place with just 12 percent of the vote. Bush enjoyed a nice April in most polls, finishing with 17-18 percent in Iowa, but had consistently seen numbers in the low double-digits prior to that.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul finished fourth with 10 percent. Paul has now seen 8-11 percent in six straight Iowa polls so that seems to be where he stands right now.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie finished with 9 percent. Christie has now seen 7-9 percent in four of the last five polls conducted in Iowa.

Paul Ryan received 8 percent of the vote and has now seen 6-9 percent in five of the last six polls to include him.

No one else made much of a dent. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker received 6 percent, the same as the last poll we saw. Florida Senator Marco Rubio received 4 percent and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum received just 3 percent.

New Poll: Hillary Clinton Would Beat Sarah Palin in Alaska in 2016

PPP, 5/8-5/11
Alaska

  • Clinton: 44, Palin: 41
  • Clinton: 42, Huckabee: 43
  • Clinton: 41, Christie: 44
  • Clinton: 41, Bush: 47
  • Clinton: 40, Paul: 46

So much for homefield advantage. A new PPP poll has found that former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin would not even be able to carry her former home state if she ran for president in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.

The poll, conducted between May 8 and May 11, sampling 582 registered Alaska voters, found that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads former Alaska Guv Sarah Palin by a margin of 44-41. Clinton also owns a 54-32 lead among female voters, though male voters prefer Palin. Just 36 percent of Alaskans polled said they have a favorable view of the former vice presidential candidate and 56 percent say they have an unfavorable view. Only 19 percent of Alaskans said they would like to see Palin run in 2016.

On the flip side, Clinton trails every other Republican candidate in the state, though by a closer margin than many would assume.

In a hypothetical matchup against former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, Clinton trails by just one point as the race is split 43-42 for the Republican. In the last Alaska poll, conducted in February, Huckabee led Clinton by a 45-42 margin.

Against New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Clinton trails by a 44-41 margin, right around what we saw in January when Christie led 43-39.

Against former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Clinton trails by a 47-41 margin, slightly better than the 47-39 deficit she saw in January.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, considered the more conservative candidate in the race, leads Clinton by a 46-40 margin, right around what we saw in January when Paul led 47-39.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Cracks Begin to Show: Hillary’s Poll Numbers Slipping in Swing States

Quinnipiac, 5/7-5/12
Ohio

  • Clinton: 47, Rubio: 40
  • Clinton: 48, Ryan: 41
  • Clinton: 46, Christie: 38
  • Clinton: 49, Paul: 41
  • Clinton: 49, Huckabee: 41
  • Clinton: 48, Bush: 39
  • Clinton: 51, Cruz: 37

Earlier this week, we looked at Hillary Clinton’s slipping poll numbers in North Carolina as independents have abandoned the candidate in droves. Now, a new Quinnipiac poll has found the Clinton’s lead over Republican candidates is slipping in Ohio as well.

According to the poll, conducted between May 7 and May 12, surveying 1,174 registered Ohio voters, Clinton has kept a lead over every potential Republican candidate but they are considerably slimmer leads than we saw in February and last November.

Clinton leads Kentucky Senator Rand Paul by a margin of 49-41, a significant decrease from her 51-38 lead just a few months ago in February. On its own it wouldn’t be much of a trend but when coupled with Hillary’s slipping numbers in other swing states, the trend becomes more significant, especially when it’s the same among the other candidates.

Clinton leads New Jersey Governor Chris Christie by a margin of 46-38 after leading him by a stronger 49-36 margin in February.

Against Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Clinton has maintained her lead but now leads by a margin of 47-40 after leading him 50-36 in February.

Against former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Clinton leads by a margin of 48-39 after leading by a 51-36 margin in February.

Against Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Clinton leads by a margin of 51-37 after leading by a 51-34 margin in February.

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan hasn’t gotten much of a boost, however, as he trails Clinton by a margin of 48 to 41 after trailing by a 49-40 margin in February.

As with many of this year’s Senate races, President Obama’s low approval numbers in Iowa appear to have a slight impact on Hillary’s numbers as well. Just 34 percent of independent voters say they approve of the way Obama has handled his job as president while 63 percent say they disapprove. That’s the highest disapproval rating Obama has seen in Ohio.

(Image courtesy of Marc Nozell)

Uh Oh: Independents Abandon Hillary in New Poll

PPP, 5/9-5/11
North Carolina Independents

  • Clinton: 32, Paul: 46
  • Clinton: 33, Bush: 40
  • Clinton: 36, Christie: 39
  • Clinton: 39, Huckabee: 46

A new PPP North Carolina poll echoes the sentiment of many national voters toward Hillary Clinton over the past few months – run!

The poll, conducted between May 9 and May 11, sampling 877 registered North Carolina voters, found that while presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has been able to maintain her slim lead over the Republican pack, independents are abandoning her in droves.

In a hypothetical 2016 matchup against Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, Clinton now leads by just 1 percent, placing ahead of the Tea Party favorite by a margin of 45-44. In the last poll, conducted in April, Clinton led by four points.

This slight shift is the direct result of independents moving away from Clinton. In March, Clinton led Paul among independents by a margin of 48-39. In April, Paul took the lead among independents by a margin of 40-35. Now, Paul leads Clinton among independent voters by a whopping margin of 46-32. That’s a huge turnaround, especially over just a two-month span.

The same is seen against other candidates. Clinton leads former Florida Governor Jeb Bush by a 45-42 margin. Among independents, however, Clinton led Bush by a 46-38 margin in March. In April, Bush led Clinton among independents by a 45-39 margin and now leads her by a 40-35 margin.

Clinton leads New Jersey Governor Chris Christie by a 44-40 margin. Among independent voters, Clinton led Christie in March, 39-38. In April, Christie took the lead at 45-38 and currently leads among independent votes by a 39-36 margin.

Clinton also leads former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee by a 47-43 margin. Among independents, though, Huckabee leads her by a 46-39 margin and saw a 44-38 lead in April despite Clinton leading 48-34 in March.

Clearly, independents are either running toward Republican alternatives or simply running from Hillary. Perhaps the ongoing Benghazi accusations are once again hurting her standing or maybe it’s a case of Obama’s low approval numbers weighing down her candidacy.

(Image courtesy of Foreign and Commonwealth Office)