The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: Mike Huckabee

Rand Paul’s New Hampshire, Iowa Momentum Could Propel Him to Nomination

A new Dartmouth poll released over the weekend has found that Rand Paul is the only Republican candidate who leads presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. This is no surprise after Paul led six of the last seven Republican polls out of the first-in-the-nation primary state. As we all know, momentum is key in a primary season and Paul’s chances at winning the nomination may actually be far better than they look around the country.

The first voters to go to the polls in 2016 will be in Iowa where former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee looks strong but is no guarantee to run. Huckabee has led every Iowa poll in which he’s appeared and won the 2008 Iowa Republican caucus. At the same time, he opted not to run in 2012 and isn’t doing nearly as well in other states. Should Huckabee opt to sit this one out, Paul is the only other candidate to consistently poll in double-digits since polling began.

Though Jeb Bush remains strong in Iowa, Paul would certainly have a strong shot to win at least some of the Iowa delegates, especially if fellow Tea Partier Ted Cruz declines to run.

A week after Iowa will be the New Hampshire primary where Paul has now led in all but one poll since summer 2013. His father was incredibly popular in New Hampshire when he ran multiple times and Rand is carrying on that legacy, leading Chris Christie and Paul Ryan in the latest poll while every other candidate is in single-digits.

Barring a Christie upswing, New Hampshire looks like it will be Paul’s to lose. If Paul can win or place high in the Iowa caucus and win the New Hampshire primary, his chances in the first real big primary in Florida will increase exponentially.

Of course, if Jeb Bush runs, it’s a moot point and the former Florida governor will win his homestate handedly. If he opts not to run and let Christie carry the moderate torch, Paul would be in a much stronger spot as he trails Florida Senator Marco Rubio (who is almost definitely going to run if Bush doesn’t) by five points.

Wins or strong finishes in those three states could certainly propel Paul’s candidacy. With the primary schedule still being worked out, a lot can change but Paul’s standing in the early votes puts him in a prime spot to build enough momentum to bring to other states to capture the GOP nomination.

New CNN Poll Shows 3-Way Tie in Republican Primary

CNN, 5/2-5/4

  • Paul: 13
  • Bush: 13
  • Ryan: 12
  • Huckabee: 10
  • Christie: 9
  • Perry: 8
  • Cruz: 7
  • Walker: 7
  • Rubio: 6
  • Santorum: 2

After Mike Huckabee led almost every poll he has been included in this year, Rand Paul and Jeb Bush have leapfrogged the Fox News host and Paul Ryan is right on their heels in a new CNN poll.

The poll, conducted between May 2 and May 4, sampling 473 people, found that Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush are in a tie for first place with 13 percent while Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan is in a virtual tie with the duo at 12 percent.

Paul has now seen 12-15 percent in seven of the last eight national polls we have seen so that seems to be where he stands at the moment.

Bush has been all the talk lately and has seen a nice bump from single-digits to 11-14 percent in the last six polls we have seen.

Ryan, on the other hand, was polling at 5-9 percent in February and March but has now seen exactly 12 percent in four of the last five polls we have seen so this is a strong turnaround.

Meanwhile, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee underperformed in this poll, finishing fourth with just 10 percent. Huckabee had seen at least 13 percent and as much as 18 percent in eight of the last nine polls that have included him.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie remains in the middle of the pack, finishing with 9 percent in the second straight national poll we have seen.

The rest of the candidates remain longshots. Texas Governor Rick Perry received 8 percent but he seems to only do well in these CNN polls for some reason. He has not gotten more than 5 percent in any other poll this year and many don’t even bother to include him.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker garnered 7 percent, the highest we have seen him poll at. He had received exactly 5 percent in the last six polls that have included him.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz is tied with Walker at 7 percent and has now received exactly 7 points in three straight polls.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio lags behind them with 6 percent and has gotten 6 percent of the vote in four of the last six polls we have seen.

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum trails everyone with 2 percent of the vote and has not seen more than 3 percent in most polls.

The polls are starting to get a bit more consistent so we are getting a better idea of where every candidate stands prior to the spring and summer congressional primaries.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Shock 2016 Poll: Hillary Leads Republicans in Deep Red Arkansas

PPP, 4/25-4/27
Arkansas

  • Clinton: 44, Huckabee: 47
  • Clinton: 46, Bush: 41
  • Clinton: 48, Paul: 42
  • Clinton: 47, Christie: 38

We have seen Hillary Clinton threaten in some deep red states before and now a new PPP poll has found that the presumptive Democratic nominee has a strong chance to carry deep red Arkansas in 2016.

According to the poll, conducted between April 25 and April 27, sampling 840 registered Arkansas voters, Clinton leads every potential Republican candidate except former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.

In a hypothetical 2016 matchup against Huckabee, the former Secretary of State trails by a 47-44 margin. Of course, when asked if they thought Huckabee should run for president in 2016, 46 percent of respondents thought he should not, compared to 39 percent who think he should.

Huckabee is the only candidate that leads Clinton. The former First Lady leads former Florida Governor Jeb Bush by a margin of 46-41, including a heavy 64-23 lead among moderates.

In a hypothetical 2016 matchup against Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, the former New York Senator leads by a margin of 48-42. As with Bush, Clinton has a strong 66-24 lead among moderate voters and a strong 52-38 advantage among female voters.

In a 2016 matchup against New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Clinton leads by a strong 9 percent. Christie, long hailed as a moderate Republican, trails Hillary among moderate voters by a margin of 60-27. Clinton also owns a healthy lead among female voters, leading the New Jersey guv by a margin of 52-36.

Arkansas has been as red a state as any and a Clinton win would be a big surprise, though Bill Clinton did carry the state in both of his elections after serving as the state’s governor. Since Clinton, however, George Bush carried the state with 51 percent of the vote against Al Gore and 54 percent against John Kerry. It has only gotten redder since Obama with John McCain winning Arkansas with 59 percent of the vote and Mitt Romney winning with 60.5 percent of the vote.

(Image courtesy of Marc Nozell)

Jeb Bush is Only Candidate With a Chance Against Hillary in Florida: New Poll

Quinnipiac, 4/23-4/28
Florida

  • Clinton: 49, Bush: 41
  • Clinton: 52, Rubio: 40
  • Clinton: 52, Christie: 34
  • Clinton: 55, Paul: 37
  • Clinton: 53, Huckabee: 35
  • Clinton: 56, Ryan: 36
  • Clinton: 57, Cruz: 31

As momentum builds for a Jeb Bush candidacy, a new Quinnipiac poll has found that Bush’s homefield advantage makes him just about the only candidate who can threaten Hillary Clinton’s chances of carrying Florida in 2016.

According to the poll, conducted between April 23 and April 28, sampling 1,413 registered Florida voters, Jeb Bush is the only candidate within single-digits of Clinton, and even the former Florida Governor trails her by a big eight points. Bush has been within two points of Clinton and has trailed her by as much as 13 percent in Florida.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio doesn’t see the same homefield “advantage” as he trails Clinton by 12 percent, though that still puts him closer than the rest of the GOP pack. In the last poll we saw, back in January, Rubio trailed Clinton by a similar 10 percent.

All of the other candidates have a massive amount of work to do in Florida. Both Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie trail the former Secretary of State by 18 percent. In the January poll, Paul trailed by a similar 15 percent. Christie also trailed Clinton by a similar 16 percent in January but had been within just 4 percent of the former First Lady in November before his Bridgegate scandal. Mike Huckabee trails Clinton by 18 percent as well.

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan trails the former New York Senator by 20 percent. That’s a big fall from the 13 percent deficit he saw back in January.

Fairing the worst in Florida is Texas Senator Ted Cruz, trailing Clinton by a huge 26 percent margin. That’s not entirely unexpected as Cruz trailed the presumptive Democratic nominee by 20 percent in January.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Jeb Bush Momentum Builds, Jumps Into First Place in New Iowa Poll

Magellan, 4/14-4/15
Iowa GOP

  • Huckabee: 17
  • Bush: 17
  • Christie: 14
  • Paul: 11
  • Cruz: 10
  • Walker: 8
  • Kasich: 5
  • Rubio: 2

Mike Huckabee has led every Iowa poll this year and has been the frontrunner for the first-in-the-nation caucus for months. That is, until now, as a new Magellan poll has found that Jeb Bush has continued to build some momentum over the past couple of weeks with extensive media attention on whether or not he will run, and is now tied with the 2008 Iowa caucus winner in the polls.

According to the poll, conducted between April 14 and 15, sampling 808 likely Iowa caucus goers, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush are tied for first place in the first 2016 caucus with 17 percent apiece.

Huckabee has now finished with 14-17 percent in four of the last five polls we’ve seen out of Iowa so his standing has largely remained the same. On the other hand, Bush, benefitting from the fact that Paul Ryan and Rick Santorum were not included in the poll, has now leapt from 10-11 percent to 17. Much of that also has to do with recent media coverage focused on whether Bush will run in 2016.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie continues to recover from his Bridgegate scandal, and also benefitted from fewer candidates included in the poll, and is right behind the frontrunners with 14 percent of the vote. Christie had finished in single-digits in Iowa in the last three polls so this is a welcome sign for the embattled Jersey guv.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul finished third with 11 percent of the vote. Paul has seen 9-10 percent of the vote in the last three polls so this is right where he has been.

Fellow Tea Partier and Texas Senator Ted Cruz finished right behind Paul with 10 percent of the vote. Like Christie, Cruz had finished with single-digits in three straight Iowa polls so this is a solid reversal.

No one else figures to make much of a dent as Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker finished with 8 percent, Ohio Governor John Kasich received 5 percent, and Marco Rubio saw just 2 percent. Sixteen percent of respondents say they remain undecided.

New Wisconsin Poll: Hillary Would Beat Paul Ryan, Scott Walker in Their Own Home State

PPP, 4/17-4/20
Wisconsin

  • Clinton: 50, Ryan: 45
  • Clinton: 51, Walker: 44
  • Clinton: 50, Paul: 39
  • Clinton: 50, Bush: 39
  • Clinton: 49, Christie: 36
  • Clinton: 50, Huckabee: 38

A new PPP poll has found that Hillary Clinton has a strong lead over every potential 2016 Republican challenger in Wisconsin, and even leads Wisconsin’s own Scott Walker and Paul Ryan among voters.

According to the poll, conducted between April 17 and April 20, sampling 1,144 registered Wisconsin voters, presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton would defeat Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan by 5 percent if the election were held today. This is the first poll to look at a hypothetical Clinton-Ryan matchup in Wisconsin but last year Hillary led Mitt Romney’s former running mate by 4-8 percent as well.

In a hypothetical matchup against Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, the former First Lady would win by 7 percent. Last year, Clinton led Walker in every poll by as much as 13 percent.

Of course, the home field Republicans would still perform better than the rest of the pack.

Against New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, the former Secretary of State leads by 13 percent and led by a similar 10 percent last November, even when Christie was at the height of his popularity.

Against Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, the former New York Senator has a strong 11 point lead and led the Tea Party favorite in both polls that sampled this hypothetical matchup in Wisconsin last year.

Clinton also leads former Florida Governor Jeb Bush by 11 percent although the last PPP poll conducted back in September showed Hillary with just a 4 percent margin.

Clinton is also heavily favored against former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee who trails the Democratic frontrunner by 12 percent.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

No Republican Candidate Would Beat Hillary in Colorado – Except Rand Paul: New Poll

Quinnipiac, 4/15-4/21
Colorado

  • Clinton: 43, Paul: 48
  • Clinton: 42, Christie: 42
  • Clinton: 45, Huckabee: 44
  • Clinton: 45, Bush: 40

A new Quinnipiac poll has found that Hillary Clinton’s chances of carrying Colorado in the general election rest entirely on who the Republicans nominate.

The poll, conducted between April 14 and April 21, sampling 1,298 registered Colorado voters, found that presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leads every Republican challenger in The Centennial State, except Kentucky Senator Rand Paul.

According to the survey, if the election were held today, Rand Paul would defeat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by a margin of 48-43 in Colorado. Paul has now led Hillary in four of the last five polls we’ve seen out of Colorado by at least two points.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who is bouncing back from his Bridgegate scandal dip, also has a shot to defeat Hillary in Colorado as the two are tied 42-42 with 16 percent of the voters undecided. Christie had led the former First Lady in Colorado in every poll since the summer until Hillary took the lead in January following Christie’s scandal.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is in surprisingly solid standing as well, trailing Clinton by just 1 percent. That’s a big improvement over the 7 percent deficit we saw in a PPP Colorado poll in March.

On the other hand, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush continues to lag in the vital swing state by a margin of 45-40. Hillary has now led Bush in every poll to come out of Colorado, including a 9-point lead in the March PPP poll.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skimore)

New Poll Shows 5-Way Split Among Top Republicans

McClatchy/Marist, 4/7-4/10

  • Huckabee: 13
  • Bush: 13
  • Paul: 12
  • Christie: 12
  • Ryan: 12
  • Rubio: 7
  • Walker: 5
  • Cruz: 4
  • Jindal: 4
  • Perry: 3

Over the past month or two we have seen the top Republican contenders pull away from the fringe candidates like Rick Perry and Bobby Jindal. Now, a new McClatchy poll has found that the Republican pack has a five-way tie for first place and the 2016 Republican nomination is completely up for grabs.

According to the poll, conducted between April 7 and April 10, sampling 416 registered voters, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush are tied at the top with 13 percent apiece. Huckabee has now led nearly every Republican poll on which he’s appeared while Bush has been polling at 11-15 percent since March.

Since the poll has a margin of error of more than 3 percent, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan are all virtually tied for first place as well with 12 percent apiece.

Paul has been polling at 11-16 percent consistently since January, Christie has bounced back from his Bridgegate fiasco to double-digits, and Ryan’s numbers have been very inconsistent depending on how many candidates are included in the poll.

While we know who the real contenders are, the candidates lagging the top five feature some interesting names that have failed to garner a lot of support thus far.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio is at 7 percent, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is at 5 percent, Texas Senator Ted Cruz is at 4 percent (the lowest total for Cruz we have seen yet), Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal is at 4 percent, and Texas Governor Rick Perry trails everyone with 3 percent.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Largest Poll Yet Shows Mike Huckabee With Strong Lead in Iowa

Loras College, 4/7-4/8
Iowa GOP

  • Huckabee: 15
  • Bush: 11
  • Paul: 9
  • Christie: 8
  • Ryan: 8
  • Cruz: 6
  • Walker: 5
  • Santorum: 5
  • Rubio: 5
  • Perry: 3

In the last poll we saw, Rand Paul, Jeb Bush, and Ted Cruz had all inched closer to Iowa frontrunner Mike Huckabee. A new Loras College poll with the largest sample we’ve seen yet, however, has found that Huckabee remains a fairly strong first place in the Iowa Republican caucus race.

The poll, conducted between April 7 and April 8, sampling 600 likely Iowa caucus goers, found that former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee remains the odds-on favorite to win the first-in-the-nation caucus as he holds first place with 15 percent of the vote. All but one poll that we’ve seen have had Huckabee around 14-17 percent and he has placed first in every single one.

Not far behind the Fox News host is former Florida Governor Jeb Bush with 11 percent of the vote. We have seen Bush at 10-14 percent since last year so his standing in Iowa has gone mostly unchanged.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, who had been polling in double-digits in every poll we’ve seen since the beginning of last year, has dipped to 9 percent, though he’s been at 10 percent in the last two polls we have seen so he remains steady as well.

In a fourth place tie, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan received 8 percent apiece. Christie is bouncing back after his Bridgegate scandal caused his 12-16 percent to fall to around 6-7 but he is inching back up. Ryan, on the other hand, has now seen 6-9 percent in each of the last five polls we’ve seen.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz is at just 6 percent after seeing 7-9 percent in the last two polls.

The rest of the candidates don’t stand much of a chance. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum are at 5 percent each. Trailing everyone is Texas Governor Rick Perry with just 3 percent.

Mike Huckabee clearly remains the frontrunner in Iowa, and his major competition is becoming more evident, but we won’t have a real feel on Iowa until the candidate pool starts to shrink.

New Poll More Bad News For Hillary As Republicans Inch Closer in Another Swing State

PPP, 4/3-4/6
North Carolina

  • Clinton: 45, Bush: 44
  • Clinton: 46, Christie: 44
  • Clinton: 47, Paul: 43
  • Clinton: 48, Huckabee: 43

Barack Obama carried North Carolina in 2008 but lost the state to Mitt Romney in 2012. The Tar Heel State is as swingy a swing state as you will find and a new PPP poll shows a virtual tie between Hillary Clinton and just about every potential Republican candidate.

The poll, conducted between April 3 and April 6, sampling 740 registered North Carolina voters, found that every single Republican candidate is within five points of the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush now only trails the former Secretary of State by a point. The last poll we saw, back in March, also showed Bush trailing by just one point after Clinton had led him by 2-4 percent to start the year. Clearly, Bush is one of the stronger candidates in North Carolina.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie remains strong in the Tar Heel State as well, trailing Clinton by just two percent. He had led the former First Lady by 1-3 points until his Bridgegate scandal knocked him down in the polls. He had trailed Clinton by 3-4 percent in the last two polls we have seen since the scandal broke.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has also inched closer and now trails Clinton by just four points after the former New York Governor led the Tea Party favorite by 6 percent back in March. Last fall Paul trailed Clinton by 9 percent so he has made up some serious ground as his name recognition increases.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee trails Clinton by five points, a slight improvement from the 7 percent deficit he saw back in March.

We have noted it before but the longer this non-campaign goes, the worse it is for Clinton as “Hillary fatigue” sets in, replaced by potentially more exciting candidates.