The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: North Carolina

Clinton Leads the Way in Pennsylvania and North Carolina

Hillary Clinton continues to lead the way in both Pennsylvania (CBS News/YouGov) and North Carolina (CBS News/YouGov), topping Donald Trump by 8 points and 4 points respectively.

Pennsylvania

  • Hillary Clinton – 45%
  • Donald Trump – 37%
  • Gary Johnson – 6%

North Carolina

  • Hillary Clinton – 46%
  • Donald Trump – 42%
  • Gary Johnson – 4%

Both Pennsylvania and North Carolina are states that should vote in favor of the Democrats. Historically, they tend to vote to the left, although North Carolina did deviate from the normal in the last election, a price they are still paying to this day and one that culminated in the controversial bathroom wars.

Clinton’s centrist platform is more appealing to voters in Pennsylvania than Trump’s right-wing policies. Voters in that don’t feel as overwhelmed by the woes of immigration when compared to state’s like Florida, Texas, and California.

As for North Carolina, Clinton will masterfully turn on her southern drawl when addressing voters in the state, which will win her over voters that are looking for a candidate they can relate to. While Trump appeals to certain demographics, his policies tend to alienate more people than they help.

This isn’t the end for Trump though. In the recent weeks, he has slowly been climbing up in the polls and it seems like he will break even with Clinton soon enough. On top of that, he finally solidified his position on immigration, after flip-flopping in the past weeks.

If Trump wants to defeat Clinton, he will need to steal Gary Johnson’s votes, solidify the right-wing, somehow secure minority votes, and find a way to make a dent among undecided voters. In its entirety, this seems impossible, but all election, Trump has been defying the odds and has taught us to never say never.

Photo credit: CBC.

Trump Narrowly Leads Clinton in North Carolina

The latest poll by Civitas for North Carolina has revealed that Donald Trump holds a very narrow lead over Hillary Clinton.

Head-to-Head Matchup

  • Donald Trump – 42%
  • Hillary Clinton – 38%

Clinton will have to turn on her southern drawl if she wants to cement North Carolina. The state tends to vote Democrats, but the most recent election saw the state turn to the Republicans. Such a decision came with a heavy price and is one of the major reasons why the state is suffering through a bathroom dilemma as we speak.

If Clinton can appeal to North Carolina voters by exposing the craziness of Republicans, she should be able to win voters back. North Carolina isn’t as radical as South Carolina and should be a state that the Democrats can win.

As for Trump, he will continue to grow his support base if he can continue working with a moderate platform. His radical ideas of the past cannot be taken back, but he is working incredibly hard to tone them down and to make them more palatable to the masses.

Photo credit: E Online.

Carson and Clinton Decimate the Competition in North Carolina

The latest primary poll by Elon University for North Carolina has revealed that Hillary Clinton and Ben Carson are in the lead of their respective parties, and for both candidates, their leads are substantial.

Which Democratic candidate would you vote for?

  • Hillary Clinton – 57%
  • Bernie Sanders – 24%

Which Republican candidate would you vote for?

  • Ben Carson – 31%
  • Donald Trump – 19%
  • Marco Rubio – 10%
  • Ted Cruz – 10%
  • Jeb Bush – 5%

For the Republican Party, Carson is back on top for now. He has been trading the lead with Donald Trump in various polls. In a recent Gallup poll, he was declared the most favorable candidate of both parties. Trump is still popular and a strong candidate, but Carson offers a radical Republican approach that is hidden behind his calm demeanor.

The only other candidates that could rise the rankings are Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. Both candidates had a decent performance in the last debate and managed to climb out of the gutters. Other candidates, like Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, and the rest of the pack are lost causes at this point and have virtually no chance of winning the Republican nomination.

On the other side of the aisle, the Democratic nomination is still Clintons to lose. She is building a strong lead over Bernie Sanders and her political machine is capitalizing on all the momentum that her campaign is generating. Unless Sanders can mount a sharp offensive, he will continue to dwindle into non-existence.

Photo credit: Christian Post.

Final 2014 Senate Polls Update and Predictions: New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Alaska, North Carolina, Louisiana, Arkansas, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky

With Election Day just hours away, let’s take a look at how all of the key swing races are shaping up and what we can expect the Senate to look like come January.

In New Hampshire, we are seeing a slew of new polls with very different results so we have to look at the most reliable pollsters. CNN/Opinion Research have Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen leading Republican Scott Brown by 2, CBS/New York Times have her leading by 5, and New England College has Scott Brown leading by 1. RealClearPolitics has Shaheen leading by a point on average and that appears to be the case heading into Tuesday. Look for New Hampshire to have a very tight race, but Shaheen remains a very slight favorite.

In Iowa, Quinnipiac shows a 47-47 tie between Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley while CNN/Opinion Research have Ernst up by 2 and YouGov has Braley up by 1. RCP has Ernst leading Braley but a little over one point on average and she appears to have a very slight lead heading into Election Day.

The race in Colorado has gotten closer as a new Quinnipiac poll has Republican Cory Gardner leading incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall by 2 percent, as does Survey USA. Gardner has led all but one poll over the last month and is the slight favorite to win Colorado for the GOP.

In North Carolina, Democrat Kay Hagan appears to have a slight 2-3 point lead over Republican Thom Tillis according to a new CNN/Opinion Research poll, a YouGov poll, and a PPP poll. NBC News and Survey USA have the race tied. According to RCP, Hagan has a very slight lead over Tillis but is currently a slight favorite to hold on to her job.

In Georgia, Republican David Perdue leads Democrat Michelle Nunn by 3 percent in a new Survey USA poll, 4 percent in an NBC News poll, and 2 percent in a YouGov poll. That sounds about right and the Republican is a slight favorite to win. One thing to watch, however, is that if Perdue fails to win 50 percent of the vote, there will be a run-off election between the two without Libertarian Amanda Swafford on the ballot.

In Alaska, it doesn’t look good for incumbent Democrat Mark Begich who trails Republican Dan Sullivan by 4 percent in a new CBS News/NY Times poll and 6 points in a new CNN/Opinion Research survey. Sullivan is the odds-on favorite to win Alaska back for the GOP.

In Louisiana, Democrat Mary Landrieu continues to lead Tuesday’s open primary against Republican David Cassidy and fellow Republican Rob Maness but that’s a moot point. Landrieu and Cassidy will face off in a runoff on December 6 and Cassidy leads Landrieu by 5 percent in an NBC News/Marist poll and 4 percent in a CBS News/NY Times poll and is the odds-on favorite to win Louisiana for the GOP.

Kentucky was close for a while but that’s no longer the case. A new NBC News/Marist poll has incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell leading Democrat Alison Grimes by 9 percent while a new PPP poll has McConnell up by 8. Don’t look for Kentucky to turn blue on Tuesday.

The Kansas race has drawn closer and a new Survey USA poll has independent Greg Orman leading Republican incumbent Pat Roberts by 2 percent while an NBC News poll has him up by 1. Orman appears to be a very, very slight favorite and says he will caucus with whichever party is in control of the Senate.

In Arkansas, Republican Tom Cotton looks to be the overwhelming favorite to unseat Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor. Cotton leads Pryor by 8 points in a new PPP poll and 7 percent in a new Rasmussen poll.

Predictions:

The Democrats are slightly favored to hold on to their seats in New Hampshire and North Carolina.

The Republicans are likely to win Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska, Kentucky, Louisiana, Colorado, and slightly favored to win Iowa.

Greg Orman is slightly favored to win Kansas and would likely caucus with the Republicans, assuming they win the majority.

2014 Senate Polls Update: Iowa, Kentucky, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia

Iowa: Reuters

  • Ernst (R): 45
  • Braley (D): 45

Kentucky: Courier-Journal/Survey USA

  • McConnell (R): 48
  • Grimes (D): 43

Colorado: Quinnipiac

  • Gardner (R): 46
  • Udall (D): 39

North Carolina: Rasmussen

  • Hagan (D): 47
  • Tillis (R): 46

Georgia: WSB-TV/Landmark

  • Nunn (D): 47
  • Perdue (R): 47
  • Swafford (L): 3

With the elections just days away, polls out of the most competitive states in the country are seemingly changing every day. Luckily, most voters have made up their mind by now and poll results are growing increasingly closer to what is likely to be the final tally. Let’s take a look at how some of the tightest senate races are shaping up heading into election week.

Iowa figures to be one of the closest races in the country, possibly to the point where we don’t even know the winner on election night. A new Rasmussen poll has Republican Joni Ernst up by 1, a Loras College poll has Democrat Bruce Braley up by 1, and a new Reuters poll has the race dead even.

According to RealClearPolitics, Ernst leads Braley by an average of 46.5-45.3 and is a slight favorite to win.

In Kentucky, Republican Mitch McConnell is expected to win but not by a whole lot. McConnell leads Democrat Alison Grimes by 5 percent in a new Courier-Journal poll and 6 percent in a new CBS News/New York Times poll.

In Colorado, Republican Cory Gardner is also a likely favorite to unseat Democratic incumbent Mark Udall. A new Quinnipiac poll has Gardner up by 7, a Rasmussen poll has him up by 6, and RCP has him leading by an average of 47-43.

North Carolina is another state that is going to be very, very tight. Three of the last eight polls released this week have the race dead even while a Rasmussen poll, CBS News poll, Survey USA poll, and PPP poll have Democrat Kay Hagan leading Republican challenger Thom Tillis by 1-3 percent.

Hagan remains the slight favorite but certainly a very vulnerable one.

Georgia is one state to watch. We have seen Democrat Michelle Nunn make some headway of late as she’s attacked Republican David Perdue’s business practices, notably his overseas outsourcing and a pay discrimination lawsuit he was hit with while heading up Dollar General. A new WSB-TV poll has Perdue and Nunn tied with 47 percent of the vote while Libertarian candidate Amanda Swafford is polling at 3 percent.

If neither candidate can get 50 percent plus one vote, the two will face each other in a run-off with Swafford out of the race.

2014 Senate Polls Update: Kentucky, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, Arkansas

North Carolina: NBC News/Marist

  • Hagan (D): 43
  • Tillis (R): 43
  • Haugh (L): 7

Colorado: Rasmussen

  • Gardner (R): 51
  • Udall (D): 45

Kentucky: Rasmussen

  • McConnell (R): 52
  • Grimes (D): 44

Iowa: NBC News/Marist

  • Ernst (R): 49
  • Braley (D): 46

Arkansas: Rasmussen

  • Cotton (R): 47
  • Pryor (D): 44

With Election Day just a week away, we are now in crunch time. This week, voters all around the country will have to endure a flurry of negative campaign ads everywhere they look as candidates make one last push to win over undecided voters. Let’s take a look at who’s pulling ahead and who needs all the help they can get in the final week of a long campaign.

In North Carolina, we have mostly been tracking head-to-head polls between incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis. A new NBC News poll and a HighPoint/Survey USA poll, however, suggest that libertarian candidate Sean Haugh could pull in 5-7 percent of the vote which certainly has big ramifications in this close race. Both polls have Hagan and Tillis tied while two earlier CBS News/NY Times and PPP polls have Hagan up by 3. Hagan remains a very slight favorite in this one.

In Colorado, incumbent Democrat Mark Udall has fallen behind badly after leading the race for most of the year. Udall led nearly every poll out of the state until September. Since September, Republican Cory Gardner has led 14 of the last 16 polls and RealClearPolitics has Gardner up by an average of 47-44. A new Rasmussen poll has Gardner leading by 6.

In Kentucky, Democrat Alison Grimes has flirted with the lead but Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell has proven too well-funded and well-known. McConnell leads Grimes by an average of 46-42, according to RCP, and leads Grimes by 8 percent in the latest Rasmussen poll.

The race in Iowa remains tight but Republican Joni Ernst has certainly established herself as a slight favorite over Democrat Bruce Braley. Braley has not led any poll since September and the latest NBC News poll has Ernst up by 3 percent. RCP has Ernst up by an average of 47-45.

In Arkansas, Republican Tom Cotton appears to be headed for a win over Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor. Cotton has led all but two polls since May and RCP has him up by an average of 47-42. The latest Rasmussen poll has Cotton leading by 3 percent while other polls have him leading by as much as 7-8 points.

2014 Senate Polls Update: North Carolina, Colorado, Kansas, Georgia, Iowa

North Carolina: PPP

  • Hagan (D): 47
  • Tillis (R): 44

Georgia: Atlanta Journal-Constitution

  • Perdue (R): 44
  • Nunn (D): 42

Colorado: Quinnipiac

  • Gardner (R): 46
  • Udall (D): 41

Iowa: Quinnipiac

  • Ernst (R): 48
  • Braley (D): 46

Kansas: Rasmussen

  • Orman (I): 49
  • Roberts (R): 44

We know that the closer it is to election time, the more accurate the polls become. We’ve seen a flurry of polls from the country’s tightest senate races released this week and we have a better idea of what’s to come in November. Let’s take a look at how the most competitive senate races are shaping up.

In North Carolina, three new polls have Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan leading Republican challenger Thom Tillis by 2-3 percent while a Civitas poll has the race tied. The PPP poll with Hagan up by 3 and the Rasmussen poll with Hagan up by 2 have the lowest margin of error and are more reliable so it appears that Hagan has a slight lead heading into November.

In Georgia, where Democrat Michelle Nunn was pulling ahead by 1-3 percent, a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll has Republican David Perdue leading by 2 percent. Perdue had led nearly every single poll between the summer and October before he took a hit over his outsourcing practices when he was the CEO of Dollar General. Perdue remains a slight favorite to win but Nunn is doing everything she can to stay competitive.

In Colorado, where incumbent Democrat Mark Udall looked like a lock to win, Republican challenger Cory Gardner is now the odds-on favorite. Gardner has now led nine straight polls and leads the latest Quinnipiac poll by 5 percent. The last nine polls all have Gardner up anywhere from 2-7 percent and he appears to be the frontrunner.

In Iowa, the race remains tight but Republican Joni Ernst has now led five straight polls with a slight 1-4 percent lead over Democrat Bruce Braley. The latest Quinnipiac poll has Ernst up by 2 so Braley is certainly still in it but failing to gain traction.

That brings us to Kansas, where the polling is a bloody mess. Since the beginning of the month, incumbent Republican Pat Roberts had led a CNN poll by 1 and a Fox News poll by 5 while independent challenger Greg Orman has led a Survey USA poll by 5, a PPP poll by 3, and a Rasmussen poll by 5. Since the Fox News poll was conducted online, and is less reliable, I’d be more inclined to lean with the Rasmussen numbers. Orman has now led Roberts by 5+ percent in eight of the 13 polls out of Kansas.

2014 Senate Polls Update: Democrats Pull Ahead in New Hampshire, North Carolina, Georgia

New Hampshire: Suffolk/Boston Herald

  • Shaheen (D): 49
  • Brown (R): 46

North Carolina: PPP

  • Hagan (D): 47
  • Tillis (R): 44

Georgia: WRBL

  • Nunn (D): 46
  • Perdue (R): 45

Polls aren’t always reliable but research does show that they get more accurate the closer it is to election time. With just a couple of weeks before America votes in the midterm elections, let’s take a look at how the tightest races around the country are shaping up.

In New Hampshire, Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen leads Republican challenger Scott Brown by 3 percent, according to a new Suffolk/Boston Herald poll. Shaheen has now led or tied Brown in all but one poll out of the Granite State. A recent New England College poll had Brown up by 1 but that’s the only poll to suggest Brown ahead. Shaheen appears to own a slim lead and is likely to hold on to her seat.

In North Carolina, a new PPP poll shows Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan leading Republican challenger Thom Tillis by 3 percent while a new Rasmussen poll has her up by 2. A recent SurveyUSA poll had Tillis up by 1 but that one surveyed very few people and has a significantly higher margin of error. That poll aside, Hagan has now led Tillis in every poll going back to September.

In Georgia, Republican David Perdue looked like he was going to coast to an easy win. Instead, his business past and outsourcing practices have soured voters on the former Dollar General exec and Democrat Michelle Nunn now owns a slight lead.

After poll numbers through early October showed Perdue’s lead slipping, a WSB-TV poll had the race tied by October 9 and a new Survey USA poll and WRBL/Ledger-Inquirer poll have Nunn up by 1-3 percent.

2014 Senate Polls Update: Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia

Georgia: WSB-TV/Landmark

  • Perdue (R): 46
  • Nunn (D): 46

Colorado: High Point/Survey USA

  • Gardner (R): 46
  • Udall (D): 42

New Hampshire: High Point/Survey USA

  • Shaheen (D): 48
  • Brown (R): 46

North Carolina: High Point

  • Hagan (D): 40
  • Tillis (R): 40

Iowa: Rasmussen

  • Ernst (R): 48
  • Braley (D): 45

Rather than seeing a front runner emerge, we are seeing the tightest senate races in the country get tighter as the final month of campaigning grows increasingly fierce. Let’s take a look at the latest numbers out of the closest and most crucial senate races around the nation.

In Georgia, a new WSB-TV/Landmark poll has Republican David Perdue in a 46-46 tie with Democrat Michelle Nunn while a Survey USA poll has the GOPer up by just one point. Perdue had led Nunn in most recent polls by about 4 percent and it appears that slim lead is now even slimmer.

In Colorado, where Democratic incumbent Mark Udall had led most of the polls since the race began, Republican challenger Cory Gardner has pulled ahead by 4 percent according to a new High Point/Survey USA poll and 6 percent according to a new Fox News poll. The numbers are clearly trending higher for Gardner who has now led five of the last six polls out of Colorado.

In New Hampshire, Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen has managed to keep a slim 2-point lead over Republican Scott Brown and has led every poll out of the state. The lead is slim and Brown is closing in but for now Shaheen is certainly the frontrunner.

In North Carolina, where Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan had led the last five polls by 1-4 percent, a new High Point poll has the race all tied up. Hagan has led in every poll since September, however, so she remains a slight favorite.

In Iowa, where we have seen plenty of polls show a tie between Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst, the GOPer has now taken a 3 percent lead according to a new Rasmussen poll. Ernst has now led three of the last four polls out of Iowa, albeit by just 1-3 percent. This is as tight a race as any but Ernst has a slight edge.

2014 Senate Polls Update: North Carolina, South Dakota, Kansas, Georgia, Iowa

Iowa: Loras College

  • Ernst (R): 42
  • Braley (D): 42

Georgia: PPP

  • Perdue (R): 48
  • Nunn (D): 45

Kansas: Survey USA

  • Orman (I): 47
  • Roberts (R): 42

South Dakota: Survey USA

  • Rounds (R): 35
  • Pressler (I): 32
  • Weiland (D): 28

North Carolina: Rasmussen

  • Hagan (D): 48
  • Tillis (R): 46

With campaign ads, stump speeches, and debates intensifying around the country, it seems like every Senate race is constantly changing. This week we have more new numbers to comb through, let’s take a look at how the tightest races around the nation are shaping up.

Iowa remains arguably the closest race of them all with the latest Loras College poll finding a tie in the race between Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley. Three of the last seven polls have had the race completely tied, two polls had Ernst slightly leading by two, and one poll had Braley slightly leading by 1.

In Georgia, Republican candidate David Perdue has now led Democrat Michelle Nunn in seven straight polls but has been unable to open up a big lead. He has now led by 3-4 percent in four straight polls. He certainly has the edge but Nunn is far from out of it.

In Kansas, independent candidate Greg Orman has now led every head-to-head poll and leads Republican incumbent Pat Roberts by 5 percent in the latest Survey USA poll. Orman has now led by 5-10 percent in seven of eight polls out of Kansas since August and is the clear frontrunner.

South Dakota’s three-way race is suddenly getting interesting. Independent candidate Larry Pressler didn’t figure to make much of a dent, earning just 12 percent in a CBS News/NYT poll but a new Survey USA poll has him within striking distance of Republican Mike Rounds. Rounds leads with 35 percent, Pressler is at 32, and Democrat Rick Weiland trails with 28 percent.

In North Carolina, incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan has now led Republican challenger Thom Tillis in 12 straight polls but has not been able to widen her lead. She leads Tillis by 2 percent in a new Rasmussen poll, 4 percent in an NBC News poll, and 3 percent in a CNN poll.