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2014 Senate Polls Update: Iowa, North Carolina, Louisiana, Arkansas

Iowa: Des Moines Register

  • Ernst (R): 44
  • Braley (D): 38

North Carolina: CNN/Opinion Research

  • Hagan (D): 46
  • Tillis (R): 43

Arkansas: Rasmussen

  • Cotton (R): 47
  • Pryor (D): 40

Louisiana: CNN/Opinion Research

  • Cassidy (R): 50
  • Landrieu (D): 47

With elections just over a month away, we have a ton of polling to look at to get a good idea of what is happening in some of the tightest races in the country. Let’s take a look at the latest numbers to see how things are shaping up as Election Day nears.

In Iowa, where Republican Joni Ernst has been neck and neck with Democrat Bruce Braley, Ernst has taken a 6 percent lead according to a new Des Moines Register poll. That’s the second poll this month, the last one being a Quinnipiac poll released in mid-September, to show Ernst up by six.

In North Carolina, Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan has maintained a 2-5 percent lead but has been unable to pull away from Republican challenger Thom Tillis. Hagan has led every poll released in September and they all have her a few points ahead of the challenger with about a month of campaigning left.

In Arkansas, Republican Tom Cotton has led all but two polls since May and leads the latest Rasmussen poll by 7 percent over Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor. Though Pryor has shown signs of life and Cotton has not opened up a huge lead in any of the polling we’ve seen, Cotton looks to be the odds-on frontrunner to win Arkansas for the GOP.

Louisiana is interesting. Rather than a general election, the state will hold an open senate primary on Election Day before the top two vote-getters face off in a runoff in December. While Democratic incumbent leads Republican Bill Cassidy and fellow GOPer Rob Maness in the open primary polls, she trails Cassidy by 3 points in the latest general election poll. It looks like Louisiana is likely to go back in the red come December.

2014 Senate Poll Updates: The Latest Poll Numbers For Every One of the 36 Senate Races and Full Senate Scorecard

CBS News, New York Times, and YouGov have just released what is essentially a “poll dump,” releasing updated poll numbers for every single one of the nation’s 33 senate races. With the November midterm elections approaching, let’s take a look at the latest news from each race.

In Alaska, Republican challenger Dan Sullivan now leads incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Begich by 6 percent after leading him by 2 percent in a recent Rasmussen poll.

In Arkansas, Republican Tom Cotton leads incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor by 4 percent while recent NBC News and CNN polls have Cotton up by 2-5 percent.

In Colorado, incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall leads Republican Cory Gardner by 3 percent in the latest CBS/NYT poll while leading him by 2-6 percent in recent NBC News and Rasmussen polls.

In Georgia, this poll has Republican nominee David Perdue leading Democrat Michelle Nunn by 6 percent. There’s some conflicting information out of Georgia as a Survey USA poll has Purdue leading by 3 while a WRBL/Ledger-Enquirer poll has Nunn up by 2.

In Iowa, Democratic nominee Bruce Braley has taken a 2-point lead over Republican Joni Ernst while a Loras College poll has Braley leading by 4 percent.

In Kentucky, incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell leads Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes by 5 percent. CNN, Rasmussen, and NBC News also have McConnell leading by 4-8 percent.

In Michigan, the CBS/NYT poll has Republican Terri Lynn Land leading by 1 percent while a Mitchell Research Poll has Democrat Gary Peters up by 2 percent and a PPP poll has him leading by 5 percent.

In North Carolina, the CBS/NYT poll has Republican challenger Thom Tillis leading incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan by 1 percent while a USA Today poll has Hagan up by 2 and a PPP poll has her up by 1

In New Hampshire, incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen leads Republican challenger Scott Brown by 6 percent while a recent WMUR poll has her up by 2.

In Minnesota, incumbent Democrat Al Franken leads Republican Mike McFadden by 8 percent, exactly as we’ve seen in every other August-September poll out of Minnesota.

In Louisiana, Republican Bill Cassidy leads Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu and fellow Republican Rob Maness in the state’s open primary by 2 percent. The top two vote-getters, presumably Cassidy and Landrieu, will then face off in a general election in December. Cassidy leads Landrieu in head-to-head polls by 1-3 percent.

In Kansas, where Democrat Chad Taylor has pulled out of the race, independent candidate Greg Orman’s support has doubled and he only only trails Republican Senator Pat Roberts by 1 percent with Taylor still pulling in 10 percent. With Taylor out, it appears that Orman has a strong chance to win this one as he leads a head-to-head PPP poll against Roberts by 10 percent.

In Illinois, incumbent Democrat Dick Durbin leads Republican Jim Oberweis by 12 percent and essentially has the race sewn up.

In Montana, Republican Steve Daines is running away from Democrat Amanda Curtis, leading by a whopping 18 percent. A Rasmussen poll also has him up by 20.

In New Jersey, incumbent Democrat Cory Booker leads Republican Jeff Bell by 15 percent and has his race sewn up as well.

In Oregon, incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley leads Republican Monica Wehby by 12 percent, similar to other polls, and looks like an overwhelming favorite to win re-election.

In Virginia, incumbent Democrat Mark Warner leads Republican Ed Gillespie by 12 percent though other polls have shown him up by as much as 22-23.

In West Virginia, Republican Shelley Moore Capito leads Democrat Natalie Tennant by 23 percent and is essentially a lock to win.

In South Dakota’s three-way race, Republican Mike Rounds leads Democrat Rick Weiland and independent candidate Larry Pressler by 14 percent, similar to other numbers we’ve seen.

In Delaware, Democrat Chris Coons leads Republican Kevin Wade by 13 points and is basically a lock to win.

In Idaho, the race is pretty much over with incumbent Republican Jim Risch leading Democrat Nels Mitchell by 34 points.

In Massachusetts, the race is over before it started with Democrat Ed Markey leading Republican Frank Addivinola by 25 percent.

In Maine, incumbent Republican Susan Collins is running away from Democrat Shenna Bellows with a whopping 32-point lead.

In Mississippi, incumbent Senator Thad Cochran leads Democratic challenger Travis Childers by 15 percent after eking out a primary win.

In Nebraska, Republican Ben Sasse has the race sewn up as he leads Democrat David Domina by 26 percent.

In New Mexico, incumbent Democrat Tom Udall has a strong 18 percent lead over Republican Allen Weh.

In Oklahoma, Republican James Lankford expects a huge landslide over Democrat Connie Johnson as he leads her by 33 percent while incumbent senior Senator Jim Inhofe leads Democrat Matt Silverstein by 32 percent.

In Rhode Island, incumbent Democrat Jack Reed should easily be re-elected as he leads Republican Mark Zaccaria by 20 points.

In South Carolina, incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham has a strong 13-point advantage over Democrat Brad Hutto while incumbent junior Senator Tim Scott leads Democrat Joyce Dickerson by 21 percent.

In Tennessee, incumbent Republican Lamar Alexander has a strong 15 percent lead over Democrat Gordon Ball.

In Texas, incumbent Republican John Cornyn leads Democrat David Alameel by 21 percent.

In Wyoming, incumbent Republican Mike Enzi has an unreal 45 percent lead over Democratic “challenger” Charlie Hardy.

In Hawaii, incumbent Democrat Brian Schatz leads Republican Cam Cavasso by 35 percent.

In Alabama, incumbent Senator Jeff Sessions is running unopposed.

Senate Scorecard:

Of 36 seats, the Democrats will almost certainly win 10 seats.

Of 36 seats, the Republicans will almost certainly win 15 seats.

That leaves eleven “toss-up” seats.

Democrats look poised to win New Hampshire, Colorado, Michigan.

Republicans look poised to win Kentucky, Georgia, Louisiana, and Arkansas.

In Kansas, independent candidate Greg Orman has vowed to caucus with whichever party is in the majority.

That’s 13 for the Democrats, 19 for Republicans, and one independent “swing vote”.

The three big question marks are in North Carolina where poll results range from Tillis +5 to Hagan +4, in Iowa where we saw three straight ties before Braley took a slight lead, and Alaska where Begich led nearly every poll before two August polls showed Sullivan surging ahead. Louisiana is technically a toss-up but Landrieu’s chances are looking increasingly poor.

Democrats are defending 21 seats while Republicans are defending 15 seats.

That puts the Senate at 50 Democrats, 47 Republicans and three tossups.

2014 Senate Poll Update: Democrats See Leads Shrink in North Carolina, Minnesota, Nationally

Rasmussen, 8/11-8/17
Generic Congressional Ballot

  • Democrats: 39
  • Republicans: 39

PPP, 8/14-8/17
North Carolina Senate

  • Hagan: 43
  • Tillis: 42

Rasmussen, 8/13-8/14
Minnesota Senate

  • Franken: 50
  • McFadden: 42

A slew of new polls show multiple Senate races previously controlled by Democratic candidates shifting into the toss-up column as the elections approach.

The phenomenon can be seen all around the nation as a new Rasmussen poll shows Democrats tied with Republicans in the generic congressional vote after a Fox News poll showed Democrats by as much as 7 percent.

While most polls have shown Democrats leading the generic vote by 2-3 percent, Rasmussen uses larger samples, 3,500 respondents, and samples likely voters rather than registered voters. Rasmussen polls showed the Democrats leading until July, when Republicans took a slim lead.

We can also see that Democrats in individual Senate races are no longer running away with what initially appeared as “sure-re-election.”

In Minnesota, where Senator Al Franken had led Republican Mike McFadden by 11-14 points in June and July, according to a PPP and a CBS News/New York Times poll, Rasmussen reports that Franken now leads McFadden by 8 percent. That’s still a sizeable difference but McFadden has more than two months to continue to inch closer to the incumbent.

In North Carolina, where June and July polls showed Senator Kay Hagan leading Republican challenger Thom Tillis by 3-4 percent, a mix of new polls show very varying results but give us a fair idea of what to expect.

A Civitas poll has Tillis leading by 2, a Rasmussen poll has Tillis leading by 5, and a PPP poll has Hagan leading by 1.

One thing we do know is that the margin between the two candidates has been slim since polling began last year and this is the one race where we really won’t be able to predict a winner for and will greatly depend on voter turnout.

(Image courtesy of Veni)

Clinton Would Defeat Paul But Lose to Christie, Bush in North Carolina: New Poll

Civitias, 7/28-7/29
North Carolina

  • Clinton: 48, Paul: 47
  • Clinton: 47, Bush: 48
  • Clinton: 46, Christie: 47

A new Civitas Institute poll shows that presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton would defeat Kentucky Senator Rand Paul in North Carolina – but trails New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush in the key swingstate.

The poll, conducted between July 28 and July 29, sampling 600 registered North Carolina voters, found that Clinton has a slim 48-47 lead over the Tea Party-backed Paul.

All of the polls out of North Carolina so far have been conducted by PPP. Hillary had not led by more than 3 percent since April.

Christie leads Clinton by a slim 47-46 margin after trailing Hillary by four percent in three of the last four polls to come out of North Carolina. This is the first time Christie has led Hillary here since January, prior to the Bridgegate fiasco that almost brought down his campaign before it began.

Bush leads Clinton by a similar 48-47 margin, the first time Bush has led Hillary in the state.

With that said, Clinton has led Bush by just 1 percent in three of the last four polls out of the state so this is only a slight change.

The poll also found the Bush has a strong lead in the state’s Republican primary race.

Bush leads the rest of the pack with 16 percent of the vote while Christie and Paul are tied for a distant second with 9 percent apiece.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio is at 8 percent, Texas Governor Rick Perry and Texas Senator Ted Cruz are tied at 7 percent, and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum are tied with just 3 percent apiece.

(Image courtesy of US Embassy New Zealand)

North Carolina Will Be Key Battleground State in 2016, New Poll Shows

PPP, 6/12-6/15
North Carolina

  • Clinton: 45, Bush: 44
  • Clinton: 46, Huckabee: 43
  • Clinton: 46, Paul: 43
  • Clinton: 45, Christie: 41

A new PPP poll has found that the 2016 presidential election in North Carolina is likely to be incredibly close, with most of the top potential Republican candidates moving in on Hillary Clinton and now in a virtual tie with the presumptive Democratic nominee.

The poll, conducted between June 12 and June 15, sampling 1,076 registered North Carolina voters, found that former Florida Governor Jeb Bush now trails Clinton by just 1 percent – in a poll with a 3 percent margin of error.

Clinton has now seen the same 45 percent against Bush in three straight North Carolina polls but Bush has gained a bit of ground, receiving 44 percent after seeing 42 percent back in May.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is just three points back of Clinton. The Fox News host has now seen 43 percent in North Carolina in three straight polls but Clinton has fallen from 49 percent early in the year to 46 percent.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul is also within the margin of error, trailing Clinton 46-43. Paul has now seen 43-44 percent in every North Carolina poll conducted this year while Hillary has fallen off from 49 percent to 46 percent, the same case as with Huckabee.

Only New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is outside of the margin of error, trailing Clinton 45-41. Clinton has now seen 44-46 percent against Christie in every poll this year. Christie had led Clinton prior to his Bridgegate scandal but has fallen off from his peak of 46 percent to 41.

Clinton’s biggest problem appears to be among independent voters.

The former Secretary of State trails Bush by 10 percent among independents. She also trails Huckabee by nine, Paul by eight, and Christie by three.

(Photo By Mallory Benedict/PBS NewsHour)