The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: Paul Ryan

Hillary Clinton Much Less Likely to Win 2016 Election Than First Thought

Quinnipiac, 11/18-11/23
Head-to-Head National Election

  • Clinton: 43
  • Christie: 42
  • Clinton: 46
  • Ryan: 42
  • Clinton: 46
  • Paul: 41
  • Clinton: 46
  • Bush: 41
  • Clinton: 46
  • Huckabee: 41
  • Clinton: 48
  • Cruz: 37

Prior to the 2014 midterms, most of the head-to-head national election polls we saw showed presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leading the top Republican candidates by huge margins. Now, a new Quinnipiac poll has found that the former Secretary of State is now the overwhelming favorite we once thought.

The poll, conducted between November 18 and November 23, found that Clinton leads New Jersey Governor Chris Christie by just a single point while the other top candidates are dangerously close.

Clinton leads Christie by a margin of 43-42 after polls back in September showed her leading by as much as 9-10 percent.

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, a dark horse in the 2016 race, trails the former First Lady by just 4 percent, a 46-42 margin. The last poll to look at a hypothetical head-to-head between the two possible candidates was done all the way back in April and found Ryan trailing by 8 percent.

The other major candidates are also all within striking distance of Hillary.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul trails the former New York Senator by a margin of 46-41. Back in the summer and early fall, Paul trailed Clinton by around 9-11 percent.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush trails Hillary by the same 46-41 margin after falling behind by 11-13 percent in June-September.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee also trails Clinton by the same 46-41 margin. This hypothetical matchup hasn’t been polled since April when Huckabee was 13 points back of the Democratic frontrunner.

Only Texas Senator Ted Cruz is still severely lagging, partly because of his divisive nature but also his low name recognition. Cruz trails Clinton by a 48-37 margin, not too different from the 13-point gap we saw between the two candidates in June.

Don’t Look Now But Mike Huckabee Might Have Iowa Republican Caucus Already Won

USA Today/Suffolk, 8/23-8/26
Iowa Republican Caucus

  • Huckabee: 13
  • Christie: 11
  • Perry: 8
  • Paul: 7
  • Bush: 7
  • Ryan: 6
  • Santorum: 6
  • Cruz: 5
  • Rubio: 5
  • Walker: 4
  • Jindal: 3

While we have seen candidates rise and fall in just about every state and national poll, there has been one constant: Mike Huckabee has led every single Iowa Republican caucus poll this year and is the odds-on favorite to win the caucus as he did in 2008 when he won the state with 34 percent of the vote.

A new USA Today/Suffolk poll has Huckabee in first place with 13 percent of the vote. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is the only other candidate in the double-digits with 11 percent. The other candidates are struggling as Texas Governor Rick Perry is at 8 percent, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul are at 7 percent, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan and Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum are at 6 percent, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Texas Senator Ted Cruz are at 5 percent.

Since February, Huckabee has led every single Iowa GOP poll, including a PPP poll (17 percent), WPA Research (14 percent), Loras College (15 percent), Magellan (17 percent), Vox Populi/Daily Caller (20 percent), another PPP (20 percent), and now this most recent poll.

Bush appeared to have a strong chance at the caucus but he has seen his 17-18 percent support from April plummet to just 7 percent in the latest survey.

Paul appeared to have a chance as well but he has been polling at 8-10 percent since March and is also at 7 percent in the latest survey.

Winning the Iowa caucus didn’t propel Huckabee to the nomination in 2008, but he did beat a seemingly stronger class of candidates, including John McCain, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Fred Thompson, and Rudy Guiliani.

(Image courtesy of WEBN-TV)

Bush, Christie Top August GOP Primary Poll, Ted Cruz Surges to 3rd as Paul Plummets

McClatchy-Marist, 8/5-8/7
GOP Nomination
Bush: 13
Christie: 13
Cruz: 10
Ryan: 9
Rubio: 9
Perry: 7
Paul: 7
Walker: 4
Santorum: 3
Bobby Jindal: 2

A new McClatchy-Marist poll has found that former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie are tied atop the latest national Republican nomination poll while Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has fallen out of favor.

The poll, conducted between August 4 and August 7, sampling 342 registered Republican and Republican-leaning independents, found that Bush and Christie lead the current Republican pack with 13 percent apiece.

That’s the second straight McClatchy-Marist poll to see Bush with 13 percent while Christie has seen 12-13 percent in three straight.

Coming in behind the current front-runners is Texas Senator Ted Cruz with 10 percent. That’s a significant improvement from the 4-5 percent Cruz had seen in the last three McClatchy polls. It also comes as fellow Tea Party favorite Rand Paul has fallen from 12 percent in April to just 7 percent in this most recent poll. Paul had been at 9-12 percent in every McClatchy poll we’ve seen.

After scoring 19 percent support among independents in April, Paul is now at just 8 percent among unaffiliated voters and at a mere 6 percent among Republicans. Meanwhile, Christie now leads among independent voters with 16 percent while Ted Cruz has jumped from 5 percent to 12 percent.

Coming in behind Cruz was Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan and Florida Senator Marco Rubio with 9 percent apiece, Texas Governor Rick Perry with 7 percent, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker at 4 percent, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum at 3 percent, and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal at 2 percent.

None of those really went up or down too much except for Perry who went from 3 percent in April to 7 percent in August on the heels of his actions and statements on the border crisis.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Chris Christie Turns Tables on Rand Paul, Re-Takes Lead in New CNN Poll

CNN/ORC, 7/18-7/20
National GOP

  • Christie: 13
  • Paul: 12
  • Huckabee: 12
  • Perry: 11
  • Ryan: 11
  • Bush: 8
  • Cruz: 8
  • Rubio: 6
  • Walker: 5
  • Santorum: 3

After Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has led three straight CNN polls, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie appears to have bounced back and re-taken the lead.

The new CNN poll, conducted between July 18 and July 20, sampling 470 Republicans and Republican-leaning independent voters, found that Christie leads the national nomination polls with 13 percent of the vote.

The result comes as a bit of a surprise as Christie had been polling at 8-9 percent following his Bridgegate scandal.

Meanwhile, Paul, who has led the last three CNN polls with 13-16 percent of the vote, fell to 12 percent and second place, tied with Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee who remained in the low double-digits.

Another surprise is the surge of Texas Governor Rick Perry, likely helped by his high profile role in the current immigration crisis, finishing in third place with 11 percent of the vote, tied with Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.

While Perry and Christie rose, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush slipped to just 8 percent after seeing 12-13 percent in the last two polls. Bush tied Texas Senator Ted Cruz who has seen 7-9 percent in five straight CNN polls.

The rest of the pack didn’t make much of a dent. Florida Senator Marco Rubio received 6 percent, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker received 5 percent, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum received 3 percent.

Among just Republican-leaning independent voters, Paul finished in a first place tie with Huckabee with 13 percent apiece. Christie received 12 percent and tied Rick Perry. Cruz received 10 percent, Ryan got 7 percent, Rubio saw 6 percent, and Bush and Walker tied with 5 points each.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Tea Party Coup: Rand Paul Leads Iowa Caucus, New Hampshire Primary Polls

NBC News/Marist, 7/7-7/13
Iowa GOP

  • Paul: 12
  • Bush: 12
  • Ryan: 11
  • Santorum: 9
  • Christie: 8
  • Cruz: 7
  • Rubio: 7
  • Perry: 7
  • Walker: 5
  • Jindal: 1

NBC News/Marist, 7/7-7/13
New Hampshire GOP

  • Paul: 14
  • Christie: 13
  • Bush: 10
  • Cruz: 9
  • Ryan: 7
  • Rubio: 7
  • Walker: 6
  • Perry: 5
  • Jindal: 4
  • Santorum: 3

New NBC News/Marist polls from Iowa and New Hampshire show Kentucky Senator Rand Paul in the lead in both the first-in-the-nation caucus and primary states.

According to the Iowa poll, conducted between July 7 and July 13, sampling 558 registered voters, Paul is tied for the lead with former Florida Governor Jeb Bush without Mike Huckabee in the picture.

If Huckabee does run, polls suggest he can pull off an Iowa win, just as he did when he ran in 2008 before losing the nomination to John McCain.

Without Huckabee, however, Paul and Bush are tied for first with 12 percent of the vote with Wisconsin Congressman and 2012 Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan right on their heels with 11 percent.

No other candidate is in double-digits but former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is at 9 percent, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is at 8 percent, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and Texas Governor Rick Perry are at 7 percent.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker trails the pack with 5 percent while Bobby Jindal finds himself in no-man’s-land with 1 percent.

In New Hampshire, where Paul has been strong throughout the polling season, the Tea Party favorite leads the Republican pack with 14 percent of the vote.

The poll, conducted between July 7 and July 13, sampling 544 registered voters, found that Chris Christie is right on his heels, however, with 13 percent.

Jeb Bush was the only other candidate to finish with double-digits, capturing 10 percent of the vote.

Cruz is right behind the front runners with 9 percent while Ryan and Rubio trail the Texas Senator with 7 percent of the vote.

Walker is at 6 percent, Perry is at 5 percent, Jindal is at 4 percent, and Santorum is at 3 percent.

Clearly the race is incredibly close but if Paul is able to pull off wins in both Iowa and New Hampshire, something no candidate has done since George W. Bush, he would certainly put himself in the best possible position to clinch the nomination moving forward.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Chris Christie Comeback? NJ Governor Pulls Into First Place in New Hampshire Primary

UNH/WMUR, 6/19-7/1
New Hampshire GOP

  • Christie: 19
  • Paul: 14
  • Bush: 11
  • Huckabee: 8
  • Rubio: 8
  • Ryan: 5
  • Cruz: 5
  • Jindal: 5
  • Walker: 3
  • Perry: 2
  • Undecided: 15

Perhaps the rumors of Chris Christie’s campaign’s demise have been exaggerated. A new UNH/WMUR poll shows that the embattled New Jersey Governor has recovered, at least in New Hampshire, and is now in a comfortable first place lead in the first-in-the-nation primary state.

The poll, conducted between June 19 and July 1, sampling 251 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters, found that Chris Christie leads the first-in-the-nation primary race for the first time since last year with 19 percent of the vote. Christie saw just 12 percent in the last UNH/WMUR poll conducted back in April.

Meanwhile, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, who had led three straight New Hampshire polls, now finds himself in second place with 14 percent of the vote. He had been polling 15-17 percent in five straight UNH/WMUR polls.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is inching his way up to third with 11 percent of the vote. He had received just 3-7 percent in New Hampshire all year.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee finds himself in fourth place with 8 percent of the vote in the first poll that’s included him.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio also appears to be bouncing back and tied Huckabee with 8 percent of the vote after seeing just 2-6 percent in New Hampshire since last summer.

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal are in a three-way tie with 5 percent of the vote which is down for Ryan, up for Jindal, and par for the course for Cruz.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker received 3 percent, Texas Governor Rick Perry received 2 percent, and 15 percent of likely New Hampshire primary voters say they remain undecided.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Independents Don’t Like Any GOP Candidate, Warm to Hillary: New Poll

Quinnipiac, 6/12-6/16
Iowa Independents Favorables

  • Clinton: 52 favorable – 39 unfavorable
  • Huckabee: 35-31
  • Ryan: 33-29
  • Paul: 30-28
  • Christie: 30-34
  • Bush: 22-35

We all know that Democrats vote for Democrats and Republicans vote for Republicans so most general elections come down to the independent voters. If the independent vote decides the 2016 election, the Republicans are in big trouble according to a new Quinnipiac poll.

The poll, conducted between June 12 and June 16, sampling 1,277 registered Iowa voters, found that Hillary Clinton has a favorable rating of 52 among independent voters while not a single Republican candidate owns a favorable rating over 35 percent.

Among independent voters, presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton owns a 52 percent favorable rating and a 39 percent unfavorable rating, good for a 13-point differential. That is right around what a March Quinnipiac poll showed when Clinton scored a 50 favorable-40 unfavorable.

For the Republican side, things aren’t so rosy.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee owns the highest favorable rate among independent voters with just 35 percent saying they have a favorable view of the Fox News host. Just 31 percent they had an unfavorable view of the 2008 candidate, so at least he is still at +4.

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan scored a 33 percent favorable rate among independents but just a 29 percent unfavorable so a lot of voters either have no opinion on the 2012 Vice Presidential candidate or don’t know enough to form an opinion yet.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul owns a 30 percent favorable rate among independents and a 28 percent unfavorable for a reasonable +2.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, however, once hailed as a moderate who could bring more general election voters into the GOP tent, only has a 30 percent favorability among independents while 34 percent have an unfavorable view of the scandal-stricken guv.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, also considered a moderate who could appeal to more voters, actually performed the worst, scoring just a 22 percent favorable rating while 35 percent of independents said they have an unfavorable view of the younger Bush brother.

(Image courtesy of Marc Nozell)

Coup: Tea Party Favorite Rand Paul Leads Second Straight National Republican Primary Poll

CNN, 5/29-6/1

  • Paul: 14
  • Bush: 12
  • Huckabee: 11
  • Ryan: 10
  • Cruz: 9
  • Christie: 8
  • Rubio: 8
  • Perry: 6
  • Walker: 5
  • Santorum: 4

We have seen candidates like Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and Mike Huckabee lead the national Republican nomination polls, but it’s Tea Party favorite Rand Paul who leads a new CNN poll, the second straight poll in which the Kentucky Senator has found himself in first.

According to the poll, conducted between May 29 and June 1, sampling 452 adults, Paul leads the rest of the Republican pack with 14 percent of the vote. That’s around the same as his 15 percent in a Washington Post poll released in April and 14 percent in a Fox News poll before that.

Right on his heels is former Florida Governor Jeb Bush with 12 percent. Bush has now seen 12-14 percent in five straight polls after polling mostly in single digits to start the year.

Right behind Bush is another former governor, Fox News host Mike Huckabee. Huckabee received 11 percent in this poll after leading most polls to start the year.

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan was the only other candidate to finish in double-digits, claiming 10 percent of the vote. That’s a slight dip from the 12 percent he had seen in four of the last five polls.

Paul’s Tea Party ally, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, finished with 9 percent of the vote. Cruz had seen 4-7 percent in the last five polls so this is actually welcome news for the Canadian-born lawmaker.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Florida Senator Marco Rubio tied with 8 percent apiece. Christie has seen 8-9 percent in three straight polls while Rubio has now seen 6-8 percent in seven straight.

Texas Governor Rick Perry finished with 6 percent, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker received 5 percent, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum garnered 4 percent.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Jeb Bush Rising, Takes Lead in Iowa: New Poll

Vox Populi, 6/4-6/5
Iowa

  • Bush: 18
  • Huckabee: 15
  • Ryan: 13
  • Paul: 12
  • Rubio: 11
  • Santorum: 10
  • Cruz: 9
  • Christie: 6
  • Walker: 6

Although we have seen Mike Huckabee ahead of the Republican pack in the first-in-the-nation Iowa Republican caucus all year, a new Vox Populi poll has found that as other candidates have made some significant headway, Jeb Bush has taken the lead in the Hawkeye State.

The poll, conducted between June 4 and 5, sampling 222 registered Republican voters, found that former Florida Governor Jeb Bush now leads the Iowa Republican caucus race with 18 percent.

To be fair, Jeb Bush didn’t “improve” his position, he received the same 18 percent in the last poll conducted in late April. Instead, Huckabee’s previously-leading 20 percent has been picked away at by other candidates.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee still finished second, but with 15 percent, a sizable drop from 20 percent just over a month ago. Almost every poll we have seen this year has Huckabee leading the Iowa caucus race.

Huckabee is not the only candidate hurt by the gains made by others. Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan has fallen into third place with 13 percent of the vote after seeing 19 percent in the last poll.

One of the candidates taking advantage of this is Kentucky Senator Rand Paul who has now jumped into fourth place with 12 percent of the vote after receiving just 8 percent in the last poll.

Another such candidate is the potentially resurging Florida Senator Marco Rubio who received 11 percent, a slight but significant increase from 9 percent in the April poll.

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who was not even included in the last poll, stole plenty of votes as well, finishing with 10 percent.

The other candidates pretty much stayed put.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz received 9 percent, the same as the last poll. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie fell from 7 percent in April to 6 percent in this new poll. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker also stayed put at 6 percent.

(Image courtesy of The World Affairs Council)

Iowa Voters Say Chris Christie Has Best Chance of Being Elected in 2016: New Poll

Des Moines Register, 5/27-5/30
Iowa, Best Chance to Defeat Democrat

  • Christie: 19
  • Bush: 16
  • Huckabee: 13
  • Paul: 13
  • Perry: 10
  • Ryan: 10
  • Jindal: 9
  • Rubio: 9
  • Cruz: 8
  • Santorum: 6
  • Walker: 6

 

There are two aspects to the primary process. One is appealing to the party base. If a Republican wants to be nominated, certainly he’ll have to say the right things about the economy, taxes, immigration, and social issues. Of course, then comes the question of electability. Winning a primary often costs a candidate some points in the general election because they have alienated voters outside of their base. Perhaps this is why a new Des Moines Register poll shows moderate Chris Christie as the most “electable candidate.”

The poll, conducted between May 27 and May 30, sampling 400 likely Iowa Republican caucus goers, found that voters see New Jersey Governor Chris Christie with the best chance to defeat a Democratic candidate in 2016.

While 19 percent of respondents said Christie has the best shot to win the general election, a very close 16 percent said fellow moderate and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has the best shot.

Coming in tied for third were former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul with 13 percent.

Behind them were Texas Governor Rick Perry and Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan with 10 percent.

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and Florida Senator Marco Rubio got 9 percent, Texas Senator Ted Cruz got 8 percent, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker got 6 percent.

Interestingly, Christie also received the lowest favorable-unfavorable split of any of the candidate. Just 42 percent have a favorable view of Christie and 40 percent have an unfavorable view.

Paul Ryan has the highest favorable rating by far with 56 percent having a favorable view of the former Veep nominee and just 23 percent seeing him in an unfavorable light.

Rubio got a 43 favorable-23 unfavorable split, Perry got a 49-32 split, Huckabee got a 50-34, Paul got a 46-30, Jindal got a 35-19, Cruz got a 38-26, Santorum got a 41-31, and Bush got a 44-38.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)