The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: Paul Ryan

Mike Huckabee the Clear Front Runner in Iowa GOP Caucus: New Poll

PPP, 5/15-5/19
Iowa
Huckabee: 20
Cruz: 15
Bush: 12
Paul: 10
Christie: 9
Ryan: 8
Walker: 6
Rubio: 4
Santorum: 3

After several polls showed former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee tied with Jeb Bush or within just a point of Bush and Paul Ryan, a new PPP poll has found that the Fox News host is starting to pull away.

The poll, conducted between May 15 and May 19, sampling 303 registered Iowa voters, found that Huckabee leads the Republican field with 20 percent of the vote.

This isn’t surprising, the last poll out of Iowa, conducted by Vox Populi and The Daily Caller in April, showed Huckabee with 20 percent of the vote as well. A previous Magellan poll had Huckabee at 17. What’s different is that the candidates behind him are starting to slip as voters opt for more fringe candidates.

Coming in a surprising second was Texas Senator Ted Cruz with 15 percent of the vote. This is the first time we have seen Cruz with more than 10 percent of the vote in Iowa and he had seen 9-10 percent in three of the last four polls to come out of the Hawkeye State.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, no longer enjoying that short period where everyone was talking about whether he would run, fell to third place with just 12 percent of the vote. Bush enjoyed a nice April in most polls, finishing with 17-18 percent in Iowa, but had consistently seen numbers in the low double-digits prior to that.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul finished fourth with 10 percent. Paul has now seen 8-11 percent in six straight Iowa polls so that seems to be where he stands right now.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie finished with 9 percent. Christie has now seen 7-9 percent in four of the last five polls conducted in Iowa.

Paul Ryan received 8 percent of the vote and has now seen 6-9 percent in five of the last six polls to include him.

No one else made much of a dent. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker received 6 percent, the same as the last poll we saw. Florida Senator Marco Rubio received 4 percent and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum received just 3 percent.

Cracks Begin to Show: Hillary’s Poll Numbers Slipping in Swing States

Quinnipiac, 5/7-5/12
Ohio

  • Clinton: 47, Rubio: 40
  • Clinton: 48, Ryan: 41
  • Clinton: 46, Christie: 38
  • Clinton: 49, Paul: 41
  • Clinton: 49, Huckabee: 41
  • Clinton: 48, Bush: 39
  • Clinton: 51, Cruz: 37

Earlier this week, we looked at Hillary Clinton’s slipping poll numbers in North Carolina as independents have abandoned the candidate in droves. Now, a new Quinnipiac poll has found the Clinton’s lead over Republican candidates is slipping in Ohio as well.

According to the poll, conducted between May 7 and May 12, surveying 1,174 registered Ohio voters, Clinton has kept a lead over every potential Republican candidate but they are considerably slimmer leads than we saw in February and last November.

Clinton leads Kentucky Senator Rand Paul by a margin of 49-41, a significant decrease from her 51-38 lead just a few months ago in February. On its own it wouldn’t be much of a trend but when coupled with Hillary’s slipping numbers in other swing states, the trend becomes more significant, especially when it’s the same among the other candidates.

Clinton leads New Jersey Governor Chris Christie by a margin of 46-38 after leading him by a stronger 49-36 margin in February.

Against Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Clinton has maintained her lead but now leads by a margin of 47-40 after leading him 50-36 in February.

Against former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Clinton leads by a margin of 48-39 after leading by a 51-36 margin in February.

Against Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Clinton leads by a margin of 51-37 after leading by a 51-34 margin in February.

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan hasn’t gotten much of a boost, however, as he trails Clinton by a margin of 48 to 41 after trailing by a 49-40 margin in February.

As with many of this year’s Senate races, President Obama’s low approval numbers in Iowa appear to have a slight impact on Hillary’s numbers as well. Just 34 percent of independent voters say they approve of the way Obama has handled his job as president while 63 percent say they disapprove. That’s the highest disapproval rating Obama has seen in Ohio.

(Image courtesy of Marc Nozell)

New CNN Poll Shows 3-Way Tie in Republican Primary

CNN, 5/2-5/4

  • Paul: 13
  • Bush: 13
  • Ryan: 12
  • Huckabee: 10
  • Christie: 9
  • Perry: 8
  • Cruz: 7
  • Walker: 7
  • Rubio: 6
  • Santorum: 2

After Mike Huckabee led almost every poll he has been included in this year, Rand Paul and Jeb Bush have leapfrogged the Fox News host and Paul Ryan is right on their heels in a new CNN poll.

The poll, conducted between May 2 and May 4, sampling 473 people, found that Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush are in a tie for first place with 13 percent while Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan is in a virtual tie with the duo at 12 percent.

Paul has now seen 12-15 percent in seven of the last eight national polls we have seen so that seems to be where he stands at the moment.

Bush has been all the talk lately and has seen a nice bump from single-digits to 11-14 percent in the last six polls we have seen.

Ryan, on the other hand, was polling at 5-9 percent in February and March but has now seen exactly 12 percent in four of the last five polls we have seen so this is a strong turnaround.

Meanwhile, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee underperformed in this poll, finishing fourth with just 10 percent. Huckabee had seen at least 13 percent and as much as 18 percent in eight of the last nine polls that have included him.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie remains in the middle of the pack, finishing with 9 percent in the second straight national poll we have seen.

The rest of the candidates remain longshots. Texas Governor Rick Perry received 8 percent but he seems to only do well in these CNN polls for some reason. He has not gotten more than 5 percent in any other poll this year and many don’t even bother to include him.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker garnered 7 percent, the highest we have seen him poll at. He had received exactly 5 percent in the last six polls that have included him.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz is tied with Walker at 7 percent and has now received exactly 7 points in three straight polls.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio lags behind them with 6 percent and has gotten 6 percent of the vote in four of the last six polls we have seen.

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum trails everyone with 2 percent of the vote and has not seen more than 3 percent in most polls.

The polls are starting to get a bit more consistent so we are getting a better idea of where every candidate stands prior to the spring and summer congressional primaries.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

New Wisconsin Poll: Hillary Would Beat Paul Ryan, Scott Walker in Their Own Home State

PPP, 4/17-4/20
Wisconsin

  • Clinton: 50, Ryan: 45
  • Clinton: 51, Walker: 44
  • Clinton: 50, Paul: 39
  • Clinton: 50, Bush: 39
  • Clinton: 49, Christie: 36
  • Clinton: 50, Huckabee: 38

A new PPP poll has found that Hillary Clinton has a strong lead over every potential 2016 Republican challenger in Wisconsin, and even leads Wisconsin’s own Scott Walker and Paul Ryan among voters.

According to the poll, conducted between April 17 and April 20, sampling 1,144 registered Wisconsin voters, presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton would defeat Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan by 5 percent if the election were held today. This is the first poll to look at a hypothetical Clinton-Ryan matchup in Wisconsin but last year Hillary led Mitt Romney’s former running mate by 4-8 percent as well.

In a hypothetical matchup against Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, the former First Lady would win by 7 percent. Last year, Clinton led Walker in every poll by as much as 13 percent.

Of course, the home field Republicans would still perform better than the rest of the pack.

Against New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, the former Secretary of State leads by 13 percent and led by a similar 10 percent last November, even when Christie was at the height of his popularity.

Against Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, the former New York Senator has a strong 11 point lead and led the Tea Party favorite in both polls that sampled this hypothetical matchup in Wisconsin last year.

Clinton also leads former Florida Governor Jeb Bush by 11 percent although the last PPP poll conducted back in September showed Hillary with just a 4 percent margin.

Clinton is also heavily favored against former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee who trails the Democratic frontrunner by 12 percent.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

New Poll Shows 5-Way Split Among Top Republicans

McClatchy/Marist, 4/7-4/10

  • Huckabee: 13
  • Bush: 13
  • Paul: 12
  • Christie: 12
  • Ryan: 12
  • Rubio: 7
  • Walker: 5
  • Cruz: 4
  • Jindal: 4
  • Perry: 3

Over the past month or two we have seen the top Republican contenders pull away from the fringe candidates like Rick Perry and Bobby Jindal. Now, a new McClatchy poll has found that the Republican pack has a five-way tie for first place and the 2016 Republican nomination is completely up for grabs.

According to the poll, conducted between April 7 and April 10, sampling 416 registered voters, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush are tied at the top with 13 percent apiece. Huckabee has now led nearly every Republican poll on which he’s appeared while Bush has been polling at 11-15 percent since March.

Since the poll has a margin of error of more than 3 percent, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan are all virtually tied for first place as well with 12 percent apiece.

Paul has been polling at 11-16 percent consistently since January, Christie has bounced back from his Bridgegate fiasco to double-digits, and Ryan’s numbers have been very inconsistent depending on how many candidates are included in the poll.

While we know who the real contenders are, the candidates lagging the top five feature some interesting names that have failed to garner a lot of support thus far.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio is at 7 percent, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is at 5 percent, Texas Senator Ted Cruz is at 4 percent (the lowest total for Cruz we have seen yet), Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal is at 4 percent, and Texas Governor Rick Perry trails everyone with 3 percent.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Fox News Poll: Chris Christie Back On Top of GOP Race

Fox News, 4/13-4/15

  • Christie: 15
  • Paul: 14
  • Bush: 14
  • Ryan: 9
  • Rubio: 8
  • Cruz: 7
  • Walker: 5
  • Perry: 5
  • Jindal: 2

It turns out the rumors of Chris Christie’s collapse may have been premature as a new Fox News poll shows the New Jersey Governor back atop the Republican race.

According to the poll, conducted between April 13 and April 15, sampling 384 registered voters, Christie leads the Republican pack with 15 percent of the vote. Christie had fallen off to as low as 8 percent before bouncing back to double-digits in March and now to the top of the survey results. Of course, this poll didn’t include Fox News host Mike Huckabee who has led most of the national polls since Christie’s Bridgegate collapse. Certainly, it’s still possible that Huckabee doesn’t run, but that seems less likely with every national and Iowa poll that the former Arkansas Governor leads.

Even without Huck in the race, Christie is hardly an overwhelming favorite. Right on his heels are Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush with 14 percent. Paul has now seen 11-14 percent in four straight polls while Bush has now seen 13-14 percent in back-to-back surveys.

No other candidate managed to get into the double digits and Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan finished fourth with 9 percent of the vote after seeing 12 percent in the last two polls we’ve seen. Right behind him is Florida Senator Marco Rubio with 8 percent, the highest total he has seen since February.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz is at 7 percent and has now seen 4-9 percent in five straight polls despite polling in double-digits for much of last year.

Texas Governor Rick Perry and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker are tied with five percent apiece while Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal trails everyone with 2 percent.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Primary Battle: Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul Look Likely to Split First Two States

WMUR/UNH
New Hampshire GOP

  • Paul: 15
  • Ryan: 13
  • Ayotte: 13
  • Christie: 12
  • Bush: 7
  • Cruz: 7
  • Trump: 5
  • Walker: 3
  • Jindal: 3
  • Rubio: 2
  • Perry: 1
  • Santorum: 1

Earlier this week, we saw a poll that showed former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee leading the Republican pack in Iowa. He has now led every Iowa poll in which he’s appeared. Since January, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has led in every New Hampshire poll and a new UNH poll shows that the two southern Republicans may split the first-in-the-nation primary and caucus.

According to the poll, conducted between April 1 and April 9, sampling 187 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters, Rand Paul leads the Republican pack with 15 percent of the vote. Paul has now led in every New Hampshire poll since Chris Christie’s Bridgegate fiasco that knocked the New Jersey Governor from the top of the polls.

Christie may very well be recovering, however, as he trails Paul by just three points. Christie has now seen 12 percent in the last two polls out of New Hampshire after peaking at 24 percent in January.

One name to watch is Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan who has leapfrogged the pack and finds himself in second place with 13 percent. This is the first time we have seen Paul in double-digits in New Hampshire since last July.

Of course, one name that really skews the poll is New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte, who is not expected to run for president at this time but is tied with Ryan for second.

Meanwhile, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, who peaked at 14 percent in New Hampshire last fall, along with Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who peaked at 10 percent last fall, find themselves with just 7 percent. It’s likely that some Bush supporters, and maybe even some Cruz supporters, prefer Ayotte but may not find her on the ballot come 2016.

Another name that is (hopefully) unlikely to appear on the ballot is Donald Trump, who received 5 percent of the vote.

No one else has much support in the Granite State as Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal finished with 3 percent, Florida Senator Marco Rubio is at 2 percent, and Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum are at 1 percent.

Largest Poll Yet Shows Mike Huckabee With Strong Lead in Iowa

Loras College, 4/7-4/8
Iowa GOP

  • Huckabee: 15
  • Bush: 11
  • Paul: 9
  • Christie: 8
  • Ryan: 8
  • Cruz: 6
  • Walker: 5
  • Santorum: 5
  • Rubio: 5
  • Perry: 3

In the last poll we saw, Rand Paul, Jeb Bush, and Ted Cruz had all inched closer to Iowa frontrunner Mike Huckabee. A new Loras College poll with the largest sample we’ve seen yet, however, has found that Huckabee remains a fairly strong first place in the Iowa Republican caucus race.

The poll, conducted between April 7 and April 8, sampling 600 likely Iowa caucus goers, found that former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee remains the odds-on favorite to win the first-in-the-nation caucus as he holds first place with 15 percent of the vote. All but one poll that we’ve seen have had Huckabee around 14-17 percent and he has placed first in every single one.

Not far behind the Fox News host is former Florida Governor Jeb Bush with 11 percent of the vote. We have seen Bush at 10-14 percent since last year so his standing in Iowa has gone mostly unchanged.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, who had been polling in double-digits in every poll we’ve seen since the beginning of last year, has dipped to 9 percent, though he’s been at 10 percent in the last two polls we have seen so he remains steady as well.

In a fourth place tie, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan received 8 percent apiece. Christie is bouncing back after his Bridgegate scandal caused his 12-16 percent to fall to around 6-7 but he is inching back up. Ryan, on the other hand, has now seen 6-9 percent in each of the last five polls we’ve seen.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz is at just 6 percent after seeing 7-9 percent in the last two polls.

The rest of the candidates don’t stand much of a chance. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum are at 5 percent each. Trailing everyone is Texas Governor Rick Perry with just 3 percent.

Mike Huckabee clearly remains the frontrunner in Iowa, and his major competition is becoming more evident, but we won’t have a real feel on Iowa until the candidate pool starts to shrink.

New Poll: Elizabeth Warren, Not Hillary Clinton, Best Liked Candidate in 2016 Race

Quinnipiac, 3/26-3/31
Political Thermometer

  • Warren: 48.6
  • Clinton: 47.8
  • Ryan: 47.4
  • Jindal: 47.1
  • Walker: 46.6
  • Rubio: 46.3
  • Huckabee: 46.1
  • Paul: 45.7
  • Christie: 45.2
  • Bush: 44.7
  • Biden: 42.7
  • Cruz: 42.5
  • Santorum: 40.9
  • Perry: 40.2

A surprising new Qunnipiac poll has found that Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is the best liked potential 2016 presidential candidate but her lack of name recognition has stunted her in public opinion polls.

According to the poll, conducted between March 26 and March 31, sampling 1,578 registered voters, Elizabeth Warren has the highest score on Quinnipiac’s “feeling thermometer” in which voters rate candidates on favorability using a scale of 0 to 100.

Warren received a mean score of 48.6, higher than any other candidate, but 46 percent of respondents said they do not know enough about Warren to form an opinion. In the last poll, conducted in January, Chris Christie had been the most liked candidate with a mean score of 55.5 but has since been hit hard by the Bridgegate scandal. Christie is now at 45.2.

Coming in right behind Warren is former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with a 47.8 rating. Right on her heels is Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan with a 47.4 score and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal with a 47.1.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee all finished in the 46 range while Kentucky Senator Rand Paul finished slightly behind them with a 45.7.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush scores a 44.7, followed by Joe Biden with 42.7, Ted Cruz with 42.5, Rick Santorum with 40.9, and Rick Perry with 40.2.

Warren was among the candidates that the most respondents said they did not know enough about. The least known potential 2016 candidate is former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer with 81 percent of respondents saying they do not know enough about him to form an opinion. Interestingly, 54 percent say they do not know enough about Scott Walker, 38 percent say they don’t know enough about Ted Cruz, and 18 percent say they do not know enough about Chris Christie.

New Poll: 2016 Iowa GOP Race Promises to be Like 2012 On Steroids

WPA Research, 3/30
Iowa GOP

  • Huckabee: 14
  • Paul: 10
  • Walker: 8
  • Bush: 7
  • Cruz: 7
  • Ryan: 7
  • Christie: 6
  • Santorum: 5
  • Perry: 3
  • Rubio: 3
  • Jindal: 2

In 2012, fringe Republican candidates like Herman Cain, Michelle Bachmann, and Newt Gingrich seemed to alternate first place status on a weekly basis. The 2016 race may prove even more unpredictable as there are at least six candidates with a legitimate chance at winning the Iowa caucus and all have seen their share of spikes and drops already.

According to a new WPA Research poll, Mike Huckabee has maintained his first-place lead in Iowa but Kentucky Senator Rand Paul is right on his heels and four other candidates are within three points of him.

The poll, conducted on March 30, sampling 402 registered Republican primary voters, found that Mike Huckabee remains in first place with 14 percent of the vote. Huckabee has finished first in every Iowa poll that has included him but his numbers may have slipped from 17 to 14.

Right behind Huckabee is rising Republican star Rand Paul, capturing 10 percent of the vote. He too has fallen off from the mid-teens as the middle-of-the-pack candidates gain support.

Just a tick behind Paul is Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker with 8 percent. Walker has been climbing in the polls and has now received 7-8 percent in three straight Iowa surveys after seeing just 3-4 percent last year.

A mere point behind Walker are Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. All three have also lost some support as the pack has grown.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has seen an uptick in some polls but not in the first-in-the-nation caucus where he finds himself with 6 percent. Right on his heels with 5 percent is former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum who had an impressive showing in Iowa in 2012.

Trailing everyone are Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Texas Governor Rick Perry with 3 percent and Bobby Jindal with 2 percent. None of the three are expected to make much of a dent in the primary race.

Expect a lot of frontrunners to emerge as the campaign rolls along, and expect them to be replaced with new faces just as quickly each following week.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)