The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: Pennsylvania

Clinton Leads the Way in Pennsylvania and North Carolina

Hillary Clinton continues to lead the way in both Pennsylvania (CBS News/YouGov) and North Carolina (CBS News/YouGov), topping Donald Trump by 8 points and 4 points respectively.

Pennsylvania

  • Hillary Clinton – 45%
  • Donald Trump – 37%
  • Gary Johnson – 6%

North Carolina

  • Hillary Clinton – 46%
  • Donald Trump – 42%
  • Gary Johnson – 4%

Both Pennsylvania and North Carolina are states that should vote in favor of the Democrats. Historically, they tend to vote to the left, although North Carolina did deviate from the normal in the last election, a price they are still paying to this day and one that culminated in the controversial bathroom wars.

Clinton’s centrist platform is more appealing to voters in Pennsylvania than Trump’s right-wing policies. Voters in that don’t feel as overwhelmed by the woes of immigration when compared to state’s like Florida, Texas, and California.

As for North Carolina, Clinton will masterfully turn on her southern drawl when addressing voters in the state, which will win her over voters that are looking for a candidate they can relate to. While Trump appeals to certain demographics, his policies tend to alienate more people than they help.

This isn’t the end for Trump though. In the recent weeks, he has slowly been climbing up in the polls and it seems like he will break even with Clinton soon enough. On top of that, he finally solidified his position on immigration, after flip-flopping in the past weeks.

If Trump wants to defeat Clinton, he will need to steal Gary Johnson’s votes, solidify the right-wing, somehow secure minority votes, and find a way to make a dent among undecided voters. In its entirety, this seems impossible, but all election, Trump has been defying the odds and has taught us to never say never.

Photo credit: CBC.

Clinton and Trump Tie in Pennsylvania

The latest Pennsylvania poll by Public Policy Polling has revealed that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are locked in a virtual tie in the state.

Which presidential candidate would you vote for?

  • Hillary Clinton – 44%
  • Donald Trump – 44%

Clinton has finally toppled Bernie Sanders and was declared the winner of the Democratic nomination by the Associated Press on Monday night. While Sanders continues to hold out, Clinton can start to focus on her general election strategy and move on from the burdensome primary cycle.

It won’t be hard for Clinton to develop a reasonable strategy against Trump. His recent comments about Judge Gonzalo Curiel haven’t helped his case and have heavily turned the media and a lot of his fringe supporters against him. If Clinton can take advantage of the situation, she should be able to convince Sanders supporters that voting for Trump out of bitterness is a bad idea.

As for Trump, he needs to tone down his rhetoric in a hurry. His recent comments about Judge Curiel, even if misconstrued, make him seem like a whiny brat. It is time for Trump to focus on policy, as that is the only way that he will be able to win over supporters from the center and left.

Photo credit: Democracy Now.

Trump and Clinton Reign Supreme in Pennsylvania

The latest poll for Pennsylvania by Franklin & Marshall has placed both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton at the top of their respective parties.

Which Democratic candidate would you vote for?

  • Hillary Clinton – 58%
  • Bernie Sanders – 31%

Which Republican candidate would you vote for?

  • Donald Trump – 40%
  • Ted Cruz – 26%
  • John Kasich – 24%

The two major remaining narratives are as follows: Can Bernie Sanders pull off a miracle and is Ted Cruz capable of contesting the convention?

In the case of Sanders, he has a monumental task ahead of him. He is behind in delegates, he lost New York, he has virtually no superdelegates, and his grassroots campaign seems to have stalled. This isn’t to downplay how successful his campaign has been, but rather, it should serve as an indication of how well-oiled Clinton’s campaign truly is.

Despite her immense political baggage, she has managed to keep it all together and is about to win the Democratic nomination. The Benghazi scandal and paid Wall Street speeches would have destroyed any other candidate, but she managed to pull it off.

On the other side of the fence, Trump continues to regain momentum after a few troublesome weeks. For a while, Cruz looked poise to overtake Trump, but he stumbled in New York hard, even losing a country to Ben Carson’s suspended campaign. If Trump can keep playing his game, he should be able to score a victory in Pennsylvania, leveraging his New York credentials to gain votes over the ultra-religious Cruz.

Photo credit: The Fiscal Times.

Clinton Cements Her Lead in Pennsylvania

After a successful primary in New York on Tuesday, the latest poll for Pennsylvania by Monmouth has revealed favorable results for Hillary Clinton.

Which Democratic candidate would you vote for?

  • Hillary Clinton – 52%
  • Bernie Sanders – 39%

Bernie Sanders ran a great campaign, but his major loss in New York was a clear indication of what is to come. While his campaign was grassroots in nature, in the recent weeks Sanders got caught up in the bitter squabbles that define modern politics. Running low on steam and looking like the aggressor, Sanders campaign appears to be out of momentum, while his opponent, Clinton, continues to cement her lead and collect delegates.

Clinton, for the most part, has handled Sander’s comments fairly well. She appropriately dodged a question regarding Sander’s qualifications to be president, whereas Sanders went on the attack and made it clear that he thought Clinton was unqualified. On top of that, she has managed to avoid releasing transcripts from her expensive Wall Street speeches and the entire Benghazi ordeal hasn’t weighed her down as much as it should have.

Pennsylvanian Democrats tend to follow the East Coast mentality when it comes to liberalism, with a slight lean towards the moderate platform. Due to this, Clinton should easily maintain her lead in the state, collect the moderate vote, and leave Sanders in the dust when it comes time to vote in the state’s primary.

At this point, the nomination appears to be Clinton’s to lose, and barring an epic collapse, she will win the Democratic nomination and face Donald Trump in the general election. This dream match-up should prove favorable for the Democrats and pave the way for the first female president in the history of the United States.

Photo credit: VOA News.

Trump and Clinton Ahead in New York and Pennsylvania

Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are leading the way in New York and Pennsylvania, according to the latest polls by Fox News.

Which Democratic candidate would you vote for?

  • New York
    • Hillary Clinton – 53%
    • Bernie Sanders – 37%
  • Pennsylvania
    • Hillary Clinton – 49%
    • Bernie Sanders – 38%

Which Republican candidate would you vote for?

  • New York
    • Donald Trump – 54%
    • John Kasich – 22%
    • Ted Cruz – 15%
  • Pennsylvania
    • Donald Trump – 48%
    • John Kasich – 22%
    • Ted Cruz – 20%

The East Coast is going to go terribly for Ted Cruz. His religiosity will not earn him any votes and the majority of voters in this reason do not care for or agree with his policies.

Trump should be able to clean up both New York and Pennsylvania, providing him with a healthy amount of delegates. The only candidate that may cause some trouble for him is John Kasich, due to his establishment credentials. Still, Kasich will not win anything and he will only succeed in stealing a few delegates from Trump.

For the Democrats, Bernie Sanders has been putting up a strong fight in the last few wakes, making the nomination process much closer than it has been for several months. Still, for Sanders to take the lead, he would need to completely annihilate Clinton in both states, and it doesn’t appear that he is going to be able to do that.

Photo credit: Fox 13.

Pennsylvania: Kasich Pulls Close to Trump, Clinton Dominates

The latest Pennsylvania poll by Franklin & Marshall has placed Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton at the top of their respective parties. However, John Kasich came in a close second, nearly catching Trump in this poll.

Which Republican candidate would you vote for?

  • Donald Trump – 33%
  • John Kasich – 30%
  • Ted Cruz – 20%

Which Democratic candidate would you vote for?

  • Hillary Clinton – 53%
  • Bernie Sanders – 28%

Trump is still the candidate to beat for the Republicans. He has been dominating the party for months and he doesn’t appear to be slowing down any time soon.

Kasich performed well in this poll due to the fact that Ohio and Pennsylvania share a lot of similarities. Despite a potential upset in Pennsylvania, Kasich’s campaign has very little chance of winning the nomination, and instead, he is stalling the nomination process and working hard to try and oust Trump as the Republican candidate. Still, by staying in the race, Kasich is splitting the vote and making it harder for the Republican Party to get rid of Trump for good.

As for the Democrats, Clinton should easily walk away with a victory in Pennsylvania. The state favors her establishment credentials and the majority of Democratic voters wouldn’t feel comfortable voting for Bernie Sanders, even if his platform is much better for them.

Photo credit: Delaware Liberal.

Clinton and Trump Win in Pennsylvania

The latest poll for Pennsylvania by Franklin & Marshall is in. Coming in at the top of their parties were Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

Which Democratic candidate would you vote for?

  • Hillary Clinton – 52%
  • Bernie Sanders – 18%

Which Republican candidate would you vote for?

  • Donald Trump – 23%
  • Ben Carson – 22%
  • Marco Rubio – 13%
  • Ted Cruz – 4%
  • Jeb Bush – 3%

Trump has ever so slightly regained the lead for the Republicans. His lead is well within the margin of error, but many expect him to edge out Ben Carson and maintain his place at the top of the party. Carson has enjoyed success in the latest round of polls, cleaning up in Iowa and having a moderately successful debate. Still, Trump is the king of the Republicans and was declared the winner of the recent GOP debate by several political critics.

Ted Cruz had a strong performance in the debate as well, especially when he exposed the CNBC moderators for their blatant liberal bias. Jeb Bush crash and burned and is likely a dead candidate, barring some major event that can turn his abysmal campaign around.

For the Democrats, Clinton is cleaning up against Bernie Sanders in almost every poll. Sanders needs to close the gap quick or he will risk falling too far behind and losing the nomination to Clinton. Sanders biggest advantage is that he is genuine about his platform and is serious when he talks about fixing the middle class and helping workers realize their rights. Clinton is far less trustworthy and more likely to tell lies to gain a vote.

Photo credit: E Online.

Senate: GOP Wins Pennsylvania, Dems Florida, Split Ohio

The latest poll by Quinnipiac University has revealed the U.S. Senate outcomes in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. The Republicans won in Pennsylvania, split Ohio, and lost to the Democrats in Florida.

Pennsylvania

  • Pat Toomey 49% – Joe Sestak 34%
  • Pat Toomey 51% – Katie McGinty 31%

Ohio

  • Rob Portman 43% – Ted Strickland 46%
  • Rob Portman 49% – P.G. Sittenfeld 27%

Florida

  • Patrick Murphy 37% – Carlos Lopez-Cantera 29%
  • Patrick Murphy 37% – Ron DeSantis 30%
  • Alan Grayson 35% – Carlos Lopez-Cantera 32%
  • Alan Grayson 35% – Ron DeSantis 31%

The Democrats came out ahead, winning the majority of the polls. Pat Toomey decisively won Pennsylvania, with a 15 and 20 point advantage over both of the Democrats.

In Ohio, the two parties split the poll. The Republicans Rob Portman managed to beat P.G. Sittenfeld by a large margin, but lost to Ted Strickland.

Finally, the Democrats cleaned up in Florida, winning every single matchup. Both Patrick Murphy and Alan Grayson beat Carlos Lopez-Cantera and Ron DeSantis. Murphy convincingly beat the two Republican candidates, while Grayson’s margin of victory was much smaller.

Photo credit: The Next Web.

Trump Stops the Slide, Wins Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania

The latest string of polls by Quinnipiac have revealed that Donald Trump is back on top of the Republicans. He was briefly knocked out of the lead, but has managed to regain it in a series of three important polls in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Which Republican candidate would you vote for?

Florida

  • Donald Trump – 28%
  • Ben Carson – 16%
  • Marco Rubio – 14%
  • Jeb Bush – 12%

Ohio

  • Donald Trump – 23%
  • Ben Carson – 18%
  • John Kasich – 13%
  • Ted Cruz – 11%
  • Carly Fiorina – 10%

Pennsylvania

  • Donald Trump – 23%
  • Ben Carson – 17%
  • Marco Rubio – 12%
  • Carly Fiorina – 8%

Trump won all three polls, well over the margin of error. Trump decimated both Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush in Florida, despite the two having strong ties to the state. Ben Carson came in second, but was a notable 12 points behind.

In Ohio, Trump’s lead over Carson was much smaller, but he managed to edge out the other candidates decisively. The same story occurred in Pennsylvania where Trump narrowly defeated Carson.

Trump supporters were worried that the candidate was losing steam, and while this may still be the truth, he remains a powerful candidate who understands how to pander to American voters with his “pro-American” agenda that is rooted in the American dream and a government that favors big business and making money.

Photo credit: Slate.

New Poll: Moderates Abandon Republicans for Hillary in Droves

PPP, 5/30-6/1
Pennsylvania Moderate Voters

  • Clinton: 59, Christie: 29
  • Clinton: 57, Bush: 29
  • Clinton: 61, Paul: 25
  • Clinton: 62, Huckabee: 26
  • Clinton: 64, Cruz: 21

With the Republican Party growing more and more conservative, especially during the primaries when candidates have to appeal to their party base, moderates are abandoning Republicans in huge numbers and throwing their support toward presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

According to a new PPP Pennsylvania poll, Hillary Clinton owns dominant margins among moderate voters over every Republican candidate.

Even against New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, dubbed the moderate of the race, Clinton leads by a margin of 59-29 among Pennsylvania’s moderate voters despite only leading Christie by a 49-39 margin in the overall poll.

The other candidates fare even worse.

Against another moderate Republican, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Clinton leads by a margin of 57-29 among moderate voters.

Against conservative favorite and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, Clinton leads by a strong 61-25 margin.

Against former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, Clinton leads by a 62-26 margin among moderates.

She absolutely trounces Tea Party-favorite Ted Cruz with a 64-21 percent split among moderate voters.

Of course, thanks to the help of the moderate vote, Clinton has a strong overall lead on every Republican in the poll.

Clinton leads Christie by 10 percent, Bush by a 51-37 margin, Paul by a 52-38 margin, Huckabee by a 52-37 margin, and Cruz by a big 53-34 margin.

What will be interesting to see going forward is if Republicans can manage to alienate more moderate and independent voters once the primaries heat up.

Typically, primary season is spent moving to the right to appeal to the conservative base before moving to the middle in the general election campaign to appeal to as many voters as possible. The farther right the party goes, the harder it will be to move back to the middle and recapture moderate voters come November 2016. It’s already looking like an uphill battle before campaigning has even begun.

(Image courtesy of Josh Harrison)