The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton Much Less Likely to Win 2016 Election Than First Thought

Quinnipiac, 11/18-11/23
Head-to-Head National Election

  • Clinton: 43
  • Christie: 42
  • Clinton: 46
  • Ryan: 42
  • Clinton: 46
  • Paul: 41
  • Clinton: 46
  • Bush: 41
  • Clinton: 46
  • Huckabee: 41
  • Clinton: 48
  • Cruz: 37

Prior to the 2014 midterms, most of the head-to-head national election polls we saw showed presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leading the top Republican candidates by huge margins. Now, a new Quinnipiac poll has found that the former Secretary of State is now the overwhelming favorite we once thought.

The poll, conducted between November 18 and November 23, found that Clinton leads New Jersey Governor Chris Christie by just a single point while the other top candidates are dangerously close.

Clinton leads Christie by a margin of 43-42 after polls back in September showed her leading by as much as 9-10 percent.

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, a dark horse in the 2016 race, trails the former First Lady by just 4 percent, a 46-42 margin. The last poll to look at a hypothetical head-to-head between the two possible candidates was done all the way back in April and found Ryan trailing by 8 percent.

The other major candidates are also all within striking distance of Hillary.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul trails the former New York Senator by a margin of 46-41. Back in the summer and early fall, Paul trailed Clinton by around 9-11 percent.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush trails Hillary by the same 46-41 margin after falling behind by 11-13 percent in June-September.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee also trails Clinton by the same 46-41 margin. This hypothetical matchup hasn’t been polled since April when Huckabee was 13 points back of the Democratic frontrunner.

Only Texas Senator Ted Cruz is still severely lagging, partly because of his divisive nature but also his low name recognition. Cruz trails Clinton by a 48-37 margin, not too different from the 13-point gap we saw between the two candidates in June.

New Hampshire Primary Voters Overwhelmingly Prefer Mitt Romney to Current Pack

Bloomberg Politics, 11/12-11/18
New Hampshire GOP Primary

With Romney:

  • Romney: 30
  • Paul: 11
  • Christie: 9
  • Bush: 8
  • Carson: 6
  • Huckabee: 5
  • Ryan: 5
  • Cruz: 5

Without Romney:

  • Christie: 16
  • Paul: 16
  • Bush: 14
  • Carson: 9
  • Huckabee: 8
  • Ryan: 7
  • Cruz: 5

A new Bloomberg Politics poll has found that New Hampshire Republican primary voters heavily prefer Mitt Romney to the current crop of candidates but most are willing to settle for Rand Paul, Chris Christie, or Jeb Bush.

The poll, conducted between November 12 and November 18, sampling 407 likely GOP primary voters, found that 30 percent of respondents would vote for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination.

With Romney in the picture, only Kentucky Senator Rand Paul garners double-digit support, finishing a distant second with 11 percent.

If Romney doesn’t run, 19 percent of Romney supporters say they’ll back Paul, 22 percent say they prefer New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and 20 percent say they’ll vote for former Florida Governor Jeb Bush.

Without Romney in the picture, Christie and Paul lead the pack with 16 percent of the vote apiece, roughly half of what Romney would command. Bush is right on their heels with 14 percent while Tea Party favorite Ben Carson is at 9 percent, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is at 8 percent, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan is at 7 percent, Texas Senator Ted Cruz is at 5 percent, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal is at 4 percent, and Texas Governor Rick Perry is at 3 percent.

If Romney does run, the general election in New Hampshire could be much closer than it appears otherwise.

Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leads Romney by just one point, 46-45, in New Hampshire. By comparison, she leads Bush with a 47-39 margin and Paul with a 48-41 margin.

New Hampshire Republican Primary Shock: Ben Carson Jumps Into Lead

PPP, 11/1-11/3
New Hampshire GOP Primary

  • Carson: 15
  • Bush: 15
  • Huckabee: 11
  • Christie: 11
  • Paul: 10
  • Cruz: 10
  • Rubio: 7
  • Ryan: 7
  • Perry: 3

There has been a lot of speculation as to whether rising conservative favorite Dr. Ben Carson would run for the Republican nomination in 2016 and a new PPP poll out of New Hampshire certainly suggests that he may be in good position if he does.

The poll, conducted between November 1 and November 3, sampling 673 Republican primary voters, found that Carson is tied with former Florida Governor Jeb Bush atop the rankings with 15 percent apiece.

With Carson in the race, it appears that Kentucky Senator Rand Paul takes a hit since they both seem to appeal to the Tea Party wing of the party. Paul, who has led or ranked high in most New Hampshire polls, is at 10 percent in the latest survey, behind New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who each have 11 percent.

Fellow Tea Partier Ted Cruz is tied with Paul at 10 percent while Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Congressman are tied with 7 percent apiece.

Texas Governor Rick Perry is dead last with 3 percent while 11 percent of respondents said they prefer someone else or remain undecided.

Clinton Edges out Republican Challengers in PPP Poll

Public Policy Polling, 30/9 Clinton vs. Republican Candidates

  • Clinton – 43%
  • Bush – 43%
  • Clinton – 45%
  • Christie – 41%
  • Clinton – 47%
  • Cruz – 39%
  • Clinton – 46%
  • Huckabee – 42%
  • Clinton – 47%
  • Paul – 42%

Public Policy Polling issued a poll at the end of September that collected data on potential elections involving the favored Democrat nomination, Hillary Clinton and the various Republican challengers that she could face in a presidential election. The results revealed that she would defeat almost every single candidate and that she would tie Jeb Bush. In an election against Jeb Bush, Clinton would tie him with 43 percent of the vote. If she were to face Chris Christie, she would achieve 45 percent of the vote, while he would only secure 41 percent. Clinton would tally 46 percent of the votes against Mike Huckabee and his 42 percent. Rand Paul would receive 42 percent of the votes to Clinton’s 47 percent. Ted Cruz would secure the least votes of all. Only 39 percent of voters would vote for him, the other 47 percent would choose Clinton.

In addition, 39 percent of the participants in this poll identified as conservative, 29 percent as liberal, and 33 percent as moderate. The party split was nearly even. 35 percent of the voters claimed to be Democrat, 36 percent Republican, and 29 percent independent. These numbers are interesting as the results in the poll favor the Democrats. Are Republicans upset with the direction of the party? Are voters beginning to see how outdated the party is? These are important questions to ask.

Clinton has enjoyed strong leads over most of her Republican challengers throughout many of the polls. Still, none of these numbers matter until we know which candidates are nominated to represent each of the parties. Stay tuned for future updates as the elections approach.

Photo credit: CBS News.

Don’t Look Now But Mike Huckabee Might Have Iowa Republican Caucus Already Won

USA Today/Suffolk, 8/23-8/26
Iowa Republican Caucus

  • Huckabee: 13
  • Christie: 11
  • Perry: 8
  • Paul: 7
  • Bush: 7
  • Ryan: 6
  • Santorum: 6
  • Cruz: 5
  • Rubio: 5
  • Walker: 4
  • Jindal: 3

While we have seen candidates rise and fall in just about every state and national poll, there has been one constant: Mike Huckabee has led every single Iowa Republican caucus poll this year and is the odds-on favorite to win the caucus as he did in 2008 when he won the state with 34 percent of the vote.

A new USA Today/Suffolk poll has Huckabee in first place with 13 percent of the vote. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is the only other candidate in the double-digits with 11 percent. The other candidates are struggling as Texas Governor Rick Perry is at 8 percent, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul are at 7 percent, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan and Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum are at 6 percent, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Texas Senator Ted Cruz are at 5 percent.

Since February, Huckabee has led every single Iowa GOP poll, including a PPP poll (17 percent), WPA Research (14 percent), Loras College (15 percent), Magellan (17 percent), Vox Populi/Daily Caller (20 percent), another PPP (20 percent), and now this most recent poll.

Bush appeared to have a strong chance at the caucus but he has seen his 17-18 percent support from April plummet to just 7 percent in the latest survey.

Paul appeared to have a chance as well but he has been polling at 8-10 percent since March and is also at 7 percent in the latest survey.

Winning the Iowa caucus didn’t propel Huckabee to the nomination in 2008, but he did beat a seemingly stronger class of candidates, including John McCain, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Fred Thompson, and Rudy Guiliani.

(Image courtesy of WEBN-TV)

Bush, Christie Top August GOP Primary Poll, Ted Cruz Surges to 3rd as Paul Plummets

McClatchy-Marist, 8/5-8/7
GOP Nomination
Bush: 13
Christie: 13
Cruz: 10
Ryan: 9
Rubio: 9
Perry: 7
Paul: 7
Walker: 4
Santorum: 3
Bobby Jindal: 2

A new McClatchy-Marist poll has found that former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie are tied atop the latest national Republican nomination poll while Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has fallen out of favor.

The poll, conducted between August 4 and August 7, sampling 342 registered Republican and Republican-leaning independents, found that Bush and Christie lead the current Republican pack with 13 percent apiece.

That’s the second straight McClatchy-Marist poll to see Bush with 13 percent while Christie has seen 12-13 percent in three straight.

Coming in behind the current front-runners is Texas Senator Ted Cruz with 10 percent. That’s a significant improvement from the 4-5 percent Cruz had seen in the last three McClatchy polls. It also comes as fellow Tea Party favorite Rand Paul has fallen from 12 percent in April to just 7 percent in this most recent poll. Paul had been at 9-12 percent in every McClatchy poll we’ve seen.

After scoring 19 percent support among independents in April, Paul is now at just 8 percent among unaffiliated voters and at a mere 6 percent among Republicans. Meanwhile, Christie now leads among independent voters with 16 percent while Ted Cruz has jumped from 5 percent to 12 percent.

Coming in behind Cruz was Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan and Florida Senator Marco Rubio with 9 percent apiece, Texas Governor Rick Perry with 7 percent, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker at 4 percent, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum at 3 percent, and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal at 2 percent.

None of those really went up or down too much except for Perry who went from 3 percent in April to 7 percent in August on the heels of his actions and statements on the border crisis.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Hillary Clinton’s Lead Continues to Dwindle as Elections Approach

McClatchy-Marist Poll, 8/4-8/4

General Election Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 47% – Chris Christie 41% – undecided 12%
  • Hillary Clinton 48% – Jeb Bush 41% – undecided 10%
  • Hillary Clinton 48% – Rand Paul 42% – undecided 10%

The most recent McClatchy-Marist Poll measured the results of a general election if it were to occur today. The results favored a Hillary Clinton victory with a spread of +6. Her most capable opponent would be Rand Paul with 42% of the vote while Jeb Bush and Chris Christie secured only 41%. The margin of error was measured at 3%.

Statistically, 28% of voters were Democrat, 25% Republican, 45% independent, and 2% other. Of those voters, 17% identified as strong Democrats, 11% as moderate Democrats, 14% as independents that leaned towards the Democrats, 12% as pure independents, 18% as independents that leaned towards the Republicans, 10% as moderate Republicans, and 15% as strong Republicans.

The overall political ideology of the poll leaned towards the conservative side. 41% of voters admitted that they were conservative, 36% moderate, and only 22% as liberal. The gender gap was nearly even, 48% of voters were men and 52% were women.

Clinton has enjoyed a sizeable lead for a long period of time, but as elections come closer and the Republicans move towards officially selecting their candidate, her lead will likely continue to drop as her opponent will be clear. Rand Paul seems like the safe choice for the Republicans if they want to score a victory over Clinton, but there are still too many unknown factors to say whether or not he could win in an election.

There is also a potential chance that Clinton could lose the nomination if candidates like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren were to run. If she manages to win the Democrat’s nomination, she should be able to secure her position as the next president so long as she engages in a safe campaign that avoids antagonizing large populations of voters.

Photo credit: blogs.reuters.com

Clinton Would Defeat Paul But Lose to Christie, Bush in North Carolina: New Poll

Civitias, 7/28-7/29
North Carolina

  • Clinton: 48, Paul: 47
  • Clinton: 47, Bush: 48
  • Clinton: 46, Christie: 47

A new Civitas Institute poll shows that presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton would defeat Kentucky Senator Rand Paul in North Carolina – but trails New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush in the key swingstate.

The poll, conducted between July 28 and July 29, sampling 600 registered North Carolina voters, found that Clinton has a slim 48-47 lead over the Tea Party-backed Paul.

All of the polls out of North Carolina so far have been conducted by PPP. Hillary had not led by more than 3 percent since April.

Christie leads Clinton by a slim 47-46 margin after trailing Hillary by four percent in three of the last four polls to come out of North Carolina. This is the first time Christie has led Hillary here since January, prior to the Bridgegate fiasco that almost brought down his campaign before it began.

Bush leads Clinton by a similar 48-47 margin, the first time Bush has led Hillary in the state.

With that said, Clinton has led Bush by just 1 percent in three of the last four polls out of the state so this is only a slight change.

The poll also found the Bush has a strong lead in the state’s Republican primary race.

Bush leads the rest of the pack with 16 percent of the vote while Christie and Paul are tied for a distant second with 9 percent apiece.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio is at 8 percent, Texas Governor Rick Perry and Texas Senator Ted Cruz are tied at 7 percent, and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum are tied with just 3 percent apiece.

(Image courtesy of US Embassy New Zealand)

Fox News Poll: Hillary Leads Every Republican Candidate by 10+ Points

Fox News, 7/20-7/22

  • Clinton: 50, Christie: 40
  • Clinton: 52, Paul: 41
  • Clinton: 52, Bush: 39

A new Fox News poll shows presumptive Democratic nominee 10+ points ahead of every Republican candidate in a national survey.

According to the poll, conducted between July 20 and July 22, sampling 1,057 registered voters, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads New Jersey Governor Chris Christie by 10 percent and every other candidate by an even greater margin.

Clinton leads Christie by a 50-40 margin and has led him by 8-11 percent in every Fox News poll this year.

The former First Lady also leads Kentucky Senator Rand Paul by a margin of 52-41, about the same as the 51-42 margin we saw in the last Fox poll in April.

The former New York Senator also leads former Florida Governor Jeb Bush by a 52-39 margin, the largest difference between the two candidates in any Fox poll thus far.

Among independent voters, however, Clinton could see some trouble.

Christie leads among independents with a 43-39 margin while Paul takes independents by a margin of 48-43. Clinton still leads Bush among independents by a strong 47-38 margin.

Clinton owns strong leads over all the candidates among women, leading Christie by 19 among female voters, Paul by 20, and Bush by 22.

Among men, however, she is tied with Christie at 45 percent apiece and tied with Paul at 47 percent each.

She still leads Bush among male voters by a 48-44 margin.

Fox News has been one of the few polling organizations to show very consistent numbers in their polling series and this latest poll shows a slightly larger edge of Clinton than the last two polls this year.

(Image courtesy of Marc Nozell)

Chris Christie Turns Tables on Rand Paul, Re-Takes Lead in New CNN Poll

CNN/ORC, 7/18-7/20
National GOP

  • Christie: 13
  • Paul: 12
  • Huckabee: 12
  • Perry: 11
  • Ryan: 11
  • Bush: 8
  • Cruz: 8
  • Rubio: 6
  • Walker: 5
  • Santorum: 3

After Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has led three straight CNN polls, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie appears to have bounced back and re-taken the lead.

The new CNN poll, conducted between July 18 and July 20, sampling 470 Republicans and Republican-leaning independent voters, found that Christie leads the national nomination polls with 13 percent of the vote.

The result comes as a bit of a surprise as Christie had been polling at 8-9 percent following his Bridgegate scandal.

Meanwhile, Paul, who has led the last three CNN polls with 13-16 percent of the vote, fell to 12 percent and second place, tied with Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee who remained in the low double-digits.

Another surprise is the surge of Texas Governor Rick Perry, likely helped by his high profile role in the current immigration crisis, finishing in third place with 11 percent of the vote, tied with Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.

While Perry and Christie rose, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush slipped to just 8 percent after seeing 12-13 percent in the last two polls. Bush tied Texas Senator Ted Cruz who has seen 7-9 percent in five straight CNN polls.

The rest of the pack didn’t make much of a dent. Florida Senator Marco Rubio received 6 percent, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker received 5 percent, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum received 3 percent.

Among just Republican-leaning independent voters, Paul finished in a first place tie with Huckabee with 13 percent apiece. Christie received 12 percent and tied Rick Perry. Cruz received 10 percent, Ryan got 7 percent, Rubio saw 6 percent, and Bush and Walker tied with 5 points each.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)